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Subject: 1939 the Allies Attack, Knocking Italy out of the War
Godofgamblers    5/15/2007 1:05:38 AM
1939, Hitler's forces ravage Poland while the West looks on... but could it have gone differently? What if the French attacked Italy in the South, pushing through Torino, Milano, Verona and Venice? Italy would have been cut in two, and let's face it, Mussolini would have fallen, maybe even at the hands of his own people. Faced with this sudden aggressive action by the Allies, Hitler may have thought twice about attacking. With his Southern flank exposed in Austria, most of his armor destroyed in Poland and his forces deployed in the East, he may have given up his plans of war against the West. The West would be forced to accept the fait accompli on the Eastern Front, and Hitler would not be confident enough to attack the Allies in the west. Logically, he would turn his attentions to the East, namely to the USSR. The West would be happy since they would have averted total war with Germany and they would witness Fascism in a life and death struggle with Communism. They might even have resorted to supplying Germany to tip the balance even more in Germany's favor. All sides would be happy: Germany would have their Gotterdammerung, the West its security and USSR its confrontation with Fascism.... the only loser would be Italy, the sacrificial lamb. Your thoughts, Gentlemen?
 
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Rasputin       5/15/2007 5:28:12 AM
Only thing is, by the time the French and British march in their ye olde british WW1 and French snail speed to the front. Even the Italiens would have time to prepare a reception and call for help.



 
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paul1970    timeline...   5/15/2007 5:42:12 AM
Italy didn't enter the war till June 1940....    ie when they already knew that France was finished and Britain in full retreat....
 
neither Britain or France was in any fit state to fight another front of a war considering what they did in the original one between Sept 39 and June 40 so I doubt they would want to open it....
 
also... considering what did happen when the Germans did attack west, I doubt that the allies being spread wider and in less defensive positions would have deterred Hitler from hitting them and would probably led to the same results....
 
 
Paul
 
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Godofgamblers       5/15/2007 6:04:27 AM

 

Italy didn't enter the war till June 1940....    ie when they already knew that France was finished and Britain in full retreat....

 

True, but it was clear that Mussolini would be on Hitler's side. It was a question of WHEN not IF Italy would enter the war. Given this fact, I advocate a pre-emptive strike.

"Germany invaded Poland on September 1, 1939. Following this event, Mussolini would change his mind repeatedly as to whether he intended to enter the war. The British commander in Africa, General Wavell, correctly predicted that Mussolini's pride would ultimately cause him to enter the war. Wavell would compare Mussolini's situation to that of someone at the top of a diving board: "I think he must do something. If he cannot make a graceful dive he will at least have to jump in somehow; he can hardly put on his dressing-gown and walk down the stairs again."

 

neither Britain or France was in any fit state to fight another front of a war considering what they did in the original one between Sept 39 and June 40 so I doubt they would want to open it....

 

I don't agree. Britain and France would have ripped Italy apart in no time and the German army was completely occupied in Poland. (See the thread on the German Invasion of Poland on this board)

 

A war on Italy would have been a route of Italian forces.

 

"Mussolini's Under-Secretary for War Production, Carlo Favagrossa, had estimated that Italy could not possibly be prepared f

 
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Godofgamblers    Rasputin   5/15/2007 6:08:54 AM

Only thing is, by the time the French and British march in their ye olde british WW1 and French snail speed to the front. Even the Italiens would have time to prepare a reception and call for help.





Hi Rasputin. See the quote on the state of readiness of the Italian army in 1940 in my comments to Paul; also look at their embarrassing campaigns in ALbania and Ethiopia. They wouldn't have stood up long. The big advantage they would have would be geography: that area is extremely mountainous; the Alps and the entire Savoie region are very rugged. But even that wouldn't have staved off defeat.
 
As for calling for help, the French advanced into German territory while the Germans were occupied in Poland. The Germans were unable to mount any defensive action. The French, having a purely defensive strategy against Germany, did not know what to do so retreated back to the Imaginot Line. Why then would the Germans have helped out the Itallians if they couldn't protect their own territory?
 
 
 
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paul1970       5/15/2007 8:49:25 AM
I half agree that taking out Italian forces could be done easily by in the open field... so the British will easily beat them up in Africa as they did...
 
but I wonder whether an attack into Italy itself will work...  it is bad terrain to attack through from the north and easily defended by dug in Italian troops and artillery (which was pretty good for the time)
 
a landing along the Italian coast with combined British/French forces would be hard to organise in the short time available (if possible at all in 39/40) and have the Italian army in defense and the navy to contend with... (and they will fight in defense close to shore with air support and their capital ships are no pushover. eveyone fights harder in defense of the homeland unless their morale has already been destroyed)...
 
 
another factor could be Spain.... if the allies attack Italy because they belive Musselini will join Germany in fascist brotherhood then Spain will be worried that they are next on the list and this could bring them into the war. they are pretty poor but will easily shut down Gibraltor and Med access long enough for the Germans to be back in the west leading to France pulling its troops back onto defensive duties...
 
 
Paul
 
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paul1970    Italian artillery..   5/15/2007 9:07:18 AM
ooopps...
 
ment that it performed better than it would be expected to do even though the vast majority of equipment was old... mountain artillery units would be very useful in defending against a push through the Alps by French forces... Italian mountain troops were one of the better parts of the army.
 
 
Paul
 
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Herald1234    Italy underestimated.   5/15/2007 12:07:29 PM
The change in morale in fighting to save your homeland from French aggression would have made all the difference in Italian fighting spirit. Plus there was nothing wrong with Italian technology, just with the political leadership, resource base, and production base. Corruption at the top meant military disaster as the famous Spaviera/Ansaldo tank program competitions and bribery scandals exhibits.
 
Same for artillerey, uniforms , medical service [logistics] etc. across the board. The fascists mismanaged everything they touched.  
 
Britian and France were unable to mount a division sized operation in Norway. An army-sized amphibious attack in the face of the Regia Marina was insane. Plus you would be facing Smiling Albert and his jolly boys{Veitinghof and company] three years early. Instant recipe' for allied defeat is the result.
 
Herald 
 
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Herald1234    Italy underestimated.   5/15/2007 12:07:32 PM
The change in morale in fighting to save your homeland from French aggression would have made all the difference in Italian fighting spirit. Plus there was nothing wrong with Italian technology, just with the political leadership, resource base, and production base. Corruption at the top meant military disaster as the famous Spaviera/Ansaldo tank program competitions and bribery scandals exhibits.
 
Same for artillerey, uniforms , medical service [logistics] etc. across the board. The fascists mismanaged everything they touched.  
 
Britian and France were unable to mount a division sized operation in Norway. An army-sized amphibious attack in the face of the Regia Marina was insane. Plus you would be facing Smiling Albert and his jolly boys{Veitinghof and company] three years early. Instant recipe' for allied defeat is the result.
 
Herald 
 
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eldnah       5/15/2007 4:39:46 PM
As mentioned above there was no formal German Italian pact in 1939. What you would have had was a French "Aggresor" attacking through and over the French/Italian Alps. At that time French lacked an offensive doctrine comperable to the blitzkreig/combined arms philosophies. Sounds like the upteenth battle of the Isonzo, a good old fashioned WWI bloodletting slog.
I don't believe the 1939 British/French Fleet had the ability to carry a successful exploirive landing on the narrow Italian coast. It would have been more Gallipoli than Anzio and we all know what a triumph the latter was.
 
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Godofgamblers    eldnah   5/15/2007 7:54:47 PM
   Interesting you mention Galipolli. Winston Churchill seemed to favor in his military doctrine attacks in the south of Europe, "the weak underbelly", as he put it. His attack on the Dardanelles and later on in the war in Italy rather than France. As people have noted above, politically an unprovoked attack on Italy would have been a brash move, but I wonder to myself if Winston didn't consider it......
 
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