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Subject: Turkey vs. Greece who better?
Irish Emo dudes    1/4/2007 7:32:39 PM
Greece spends 7 billion on their military and has american weapondry turkey spends 12 billion and also has american weapondry both used f-16's but turkey has ordered 100 f-35's not sure what greece is getting i think eurofighters...whose better militarily and who would win in a war (two different questions) and another thing i would like to know who is better trained?
 
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french stratege       4/28/2009 2:11:19 PM
On a general comment, it is strange that people check number of platforms, even sometimes actual electronic inside (forgetting often ECM),  but never check number of sophisticated amnunitions available.
Or force multipliers like AWAC or C4ISR
And this matters a lot.
Especially when you don't produce them yourselves.
It is not granted that the nation which sold them will provide you more from its stockpile in case of war.
Argentinians learn the lessons in Falkland war when they found themselves under embargo while UK freely took more AM9L in NATO stockpiles.
Israel was compelled to beg to Americans some ammuntions in 1973 that USAF delivered, but they had after to comply with US statedepartment requirements to finish the war.
Israel took the lessons and build a missile industry soon after.
 
Take a country like France which have maybe not much more fighter than Greece or Turkey but have modern and updated ECM for all and 3 time BVR missiles stockpiles than those of Greece or more than 4 time those of Turkey.
France which have 7 time more cruise missiles than Greece and 12 time more than Turkey etc...
Or which have thousands depleted uranium APFSDS shell for Tanks while Greece and Turkey have none?
The same can be said for Briton which have good stockpiles like France...
 
Number of platform matters, quality, training, planning and ability to sustain operation matters even more...
 
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Geezer       5/3/2009 5:59:13 AM

Very good points french stratege. But a Greco-Turkish conflict will not be allowed to last for long, so my belief is that both countries have enough missile stockpile. I think both numbers are ok and its more of a quality matter.

The stockpiles are as follow:
GREECE:
&e13;&e21;&e24;-120C-7        130     (curently under delivery)
&e13;&e21;&e24;-120C-5        150
&e13;&e21;&e24;-120B           240
MICA IR/EM       300     
R-530D                80
&e13;&e21;&e24;-9&e24;              165
&e13;&e21;&e24;-9L/I-1           300
&e13;&e21;&e24;-9L/I              347
&e13;&e21;&e24;-9J/I-1           400
&e13;&e21;&e24;-9P4            1000
R-550 Magic-2     300
IRIS-T                 350    (curently under delivery)

TURKEY:

&e13;&e21;&e24;-120B          138
&e13;&e21;&e24;-120A          176
AIM-9X              149   (under delivery)
AIM-9S             310
&e13;&e21;&e24;-9&e24;             500
&e13;&e21;&e24;-9L/I            640
AIM-9B             210
&e13;&e21;&e24;-9P3/-9P4    750

(Of course the TUAF has no clue on how to deploy countermeasures against MICA or IRIS-T)


Allow me also to correct myself and say that the turks do have airdefence and they deploy:
Nike-Hercules             72
HAWK Phase II          48
Rapier B1X/FSB1        76/8
Of course the capabilities of the above systems in a modern war enviromenment is debatable, especially in point-defence.


Now, the Greek and French goverments -especially the current administrations- are very close. The French are desperate to export weapon systems so as to minimize productions costs, and the Greeks on the other hand are desperate for political support and diversity of weapon sources.
It is granted (as seen historically the last decades) that a significant proportion of the Greek weapon arsenal is and will be dedicated to French systems. The French understand this very well so they release advanced technology weapons to Greece with no limitations, of course with a high economic tag. Also the French provide political support on all the major Greek issues. I guess its a pretty decent relationship. For example no other country relesed cruise missiles for Greece, the French seem to be able to sell everything to Greece for the right prize.

Also Greece seek partnership in some european weapon systems, based in the local industry capabilities and operational needs of the armed forces. So Greece participated in the IRIS-T program, as well as in the nEUROn program, actively.
Greece, being a small country and economically service-oriented, has nothing to gain by pursueing indigenous weapon systems in large scale. An indegenous weapon system (for a country other than US, UK, Russia, France, etc) means a serious compromise of quality and cost increase if exports are not achieved.
You go indegenous only if you have technological base and know-how, but most importanly if you have a good customer base to keep the costs in logical levels.
So i am not impressed or indimitated in any respect by the turkish claims of local weapons. Generally i am very caucious about turkish procurements cause historically they prove to be highly inconsistent. The various forums are flooded by turkish "projects", huge "procurements", etc, that of course are almost never fully realised, and if so they never meet expectation.
Its a general turkish attitude, just think of the recent "negotiations" for the NATO general secretary... the turks played it tough initially and then they
 
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Geezer       5/3/2009 6:04:34 AM
 FFS with the fonts... one more try...
 
GREECE:
 &e13;&e21;&e24;-120C-7        130     (curently under delivery)
 &e13;&e21;&e24;-120C-5        150
 &e13;&e21;&e24;-120B           240
 MICA IR/EM       300     
 R-530D                80
 &e13;&e21;&e24;-9&e24;              165
 &e13;&e21;&e24;-9L/I-1           300
 &e13;&e21;&e24;-9L/I              347
 &e13;&e21;&e24;-9J/I-1           400
 &e13;&e21;&e24;-9P4            1000
 R-550 Magic-2     300
 IRIS-T                 350    (curently under delivery)

 
TURKEY:
 &e13;&e21;&e24;-120B          138
 &e13;&e21;&e24;-120A          176
 AIM-9X              149   (under delivery)
 AIM-9S             310
 &e13;&e21;&e24;-9&e24;             500
 &e13;&e21;&e24;-9L/I            640
 AIM-9B             210
 &e13;&e21;&e24;-9P3/-9P4    750
 
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french stratege       5/3/2009 8:21:54 AM
Good insight on Greece EU relationships.
Also nice list of air to air missiles procured by both countries (even you have a problem with your fonts)
However it is a list of all missiles procured for the last 40 years at least since we noticed obsolete systems like AIM 9B of the sixties
Both country have about 300 modern or not too old fighters.
Only 200 to 250 could be available in war time.
 
A missile can not last more than 20 years because of stability of its ageing properlant .Moreover a 20 year electronic is obsolete to ECM.
So we have to rewrite your list with less than 20 years missiles (obvious for AMRAAM)
On BVR we can notice that Greece has already 390 AMRAAM C/B plus 300 Mica plus 130 AMRAAM C7 on delivery which mean soon 820 BVR active guidance missile plus 80 S530 D at the end of their life in few years (semiactive but with outsantding performance).
On the other side Turkey can count only on 314 AMRAAM A/B with the A being a little obsolete
Almost a 3 to 1 ratio which means that a Turk pilot has to go well in the Non Escape Zone to avoid to waste limited amount of missiles.
For WVR missiles we can take in account only recent one i.e delivered in the last 20 years (so 1988)
AIM-9-B/E/J/N/P and even early L are obsoletes
Likely AIM-9-M and Magic 2 plus IRIS-T which means more than 900 missiles for Greece
 
On the other side Turkey can count only on 500 AIM-9-M plus some X on delivery with the S being of poor efficiency on a modern Greec fighter. (AIM-9S: AIM-9M with IRCCM deleted for Foreign Military Sales customers)
 
Greec advantage in A to A is enormous and it means that western powers supply Greece to get a constant air superiority on real over Turkish air force.Considering theater like Agean sea it means that Greece will win the war.
Of course USA can resupply Turkey in hours but they would do only if Turkey is attacked by a non NATO nation like Russia or Iran.If Turkey start a war against Greece, Turkey is beaten.
If Greece start a war agaisnt Turkey because of a Turk provocation, it means that days of negociation will occurs between NATO partner and US will not resupply Turkey in initial phase and Greece would be in a strong superiority before a cease fire after 3 days.
Turkey is like a dog with a leash: good on paper but unable to fight Greece without US support.
 
 
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french stratege       5/3/2009 8:52:51 AM
The only way for Turkey to limit this dependency would be to build its own defense industry or to procure Israeli systems like the Dervy BVR missile build by Israel to get more freedom to USA (which has delivered only few hundreds of AMRAAM to Israel to limit its freedom of action)
So the good links between Turkey dominiated by its (laic) military and Israel.
We can notice that Turk F16 upgrade requirement includes
The proposed upgraded capabilities will include integration of the Modular Mission Computer, AN/APG-68( V)9 radar, JHMCS, AN/AVS-9, Link-16, Self-Protection Electronic Warfare Suite (SPEWS II), HTS(E), export versions of weapons available on F-16s, plus five additional foreign weapon systems: Infra-Red Improved Sidewinder-TVC (IRIS-T) (Germany) and Penguin (Norway), Python-5 (Israel), Derby (Israel), and Spice (Israel).
However no Derby sales were granted by Israel to Turkey and we can assume:
A)That Isreal used this potential sale as an incitative to be allowed to attack Iran via Turkey (and of course Turkey which have a common border with Iran is reluctant)
B)That Israel and Turkey have been probably heavily pressured by USA to not conlxude any sale on Derby to avoid to shift Greec-Turk balance
 
Since Turkey has weaken its military relation with Israel and no Derby sale seems to have occured
We can assume that Israel and Turkey did not obtained what they wanted each other and so Turkey is now trying to pressure Israel.
 
We notice on US policy that
Washington rules out ?any regional political problems because of the proposed sale.? The Pentagon has said that the F-16 upgrade package will contribute to the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States by improving the military capabilities of Turkey and further weapon system standardization and interoperability with U.S. forces.

  It also said the sale will not adversely affect either the military balance in the region or U.S. efforts to encourage a negotiated settlement of the Cyprus question.  The list of items in the Turkish F-16 upgrade package: n   180 AN?APG-68(V)9 radars

 
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french stratege       5/3/2009 9:07:00 AM
We can conclude that Turkish generals must be really disappointed that any means to alter Greec Turkish balance currently in favor of Greece, miserably failed including the Israeli way.They have absolutely no means to exerce military pressure on Cyprus problem in favor of Turks.
USA continue to garantee to Greece the more advanced weapons like AMRAAM-C then European like France double the stockpile.
France is not desesperate to sale Rafale.
Rafale program is not at jeopardy especially after the +20% annual increase in the French military procurement for the next five years.
Rafale program cost about 2 Billions ? (building, R&D, MCO)  on 18 Billions ? available each year fror french military so 11% of french military procurement and it is said first priority after deterrent and nuclear subs to maintain.
However some sales would help.
 
 
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Geezer       5/4/2009 10:02:15 AM
Interesting points yet again.

Without being absolute about this, i speculate that Greece might be able to "veto" IRIS-T sells to Turkey, since its a participant in the program since its offspring. The IRIS-T has already many, and will have more in the future, orders so the european friends will not be that much dazzled by an export to Turkey of a couple of hundred pieces. Even so, i think the US will have no problem selling AIM-9X to the Turks.

I believe the Turco-Israeli relations are alive and kicking, they both need each other desperately, and the US is a "bestman" that applies huge pressure to both so that their "mariage" will keep going. The Turco-Israeli relations are extremely crucial to US middle east policy and they will not let a break easily.

About the Rafale, all i can say is that the French goverment applies pressure to ours for a Rafale purchase. I summoned the "despair" since they have not shown so much zeal for the FREMM (a large contract as well). In fact the Greek Navy planned for A/A frigates but now "miracusly" the need shifted to multi purpose frigates with strategic strike (scalp naval) capabilites. It seems that the Greeks probably tried to tackle French pressure for a Rafale purchase, through a FREMM purchase, sacrificing the initial HN plans.

HAF will soon have 90 Scalp-EG, which probably be increased with a further small purchase. Now the Greek FREMM configuration
http://www.meretmarine.com/article.cfm?id=107575
seems to give each FREMM 16 Scalp Navals. It is obvious that we are talking about a very descent stockpile of long strike missiles (154 in the worst case). This decent strategic capability will make the Turks think very well before doing anything stupid. This prospect might have played a role in selecting FREMM by the HN and not actually be a manouvre to avoid a Rafale purchase. I really cannot know that, just presenting some speculation.

Another fact is that the Greek goverment in early 2000s (PM Kosta Simitis) had almost agreed for a 60  EF2000 purchase. When new Greek administration got power in 2004, used the Olympic games cost as a pretext to frieze the purchase and postpone it, also altering the number to 40+20 rather than 60 units. Now, the Germans are really mad with our current goverment for this, Angela Merkel has turned down every greek demand for meetings between the two goverments in the highest level... The Type214 issues also played its part in this.

Now the purchase of a new fighter by the Greeks is imminent the next years (there is a serious operational gap with the retirement of A-7s and RF-4s) and according to our budget planning it will take place in two parts up to 2020. It will be either two european aircraft purchases or a european and a US (F-35) purchase. Greeks always have been following a half-european half-US aircraft purchase tactic in this sector, but this has severe cost implications which are well understood.
The fact is that the Greeks are concerned about the possible capabilities of the F-35. A purchase of EF2000 without AESA right now, that will prove ineficient to "see" the F-35 within a decent distance will mean either an engagement in some short of AESA pursue or an F-35 purchase.

They EF200 does not seem that it will acquire an AESA any time soon. Personaly i used to laugh at people when they said to me that an AESA is very close to Rafale but recently i changed my opinion... since it seems that Rafale in a few years will have one. But no one really knows the F-35's stealth capabilities, especially the downgraded export version that Turkey will get.
Generally it seems that the F-35 venture faces serious issues, after the Australians the Dutch now are really concerned with its cost (they asked the Dutch for 110 million for each of the initial test aircraft...), also they are concerned about the need to retire their F-16s so soon. There is plenty of reference in the press all over the world about that, you might have already read about it.

The good thing is that F-35 has many competitors so info about its capabilties will be available to HAF even if the Turks try not to use it in the Aegean theatre so as to hide them. The F-35 might prove a joke eventually i dont really know, i mean that its high (and ever increasing..) cost has to be coupled with advanced stealth, if not it will be a joke and a disaster for countries that spent bilions over billions to acquire it. I guess that we have to wait and see.

Concluding, the only certain thing (for any logical person of course) is that the US or the European power countries will NEVER allow either Greece or Turkey to gain a serious military advantage over the other. What turkey will do with its local industry does not really matter in this respect. Greece or Turkey are just middle-men in geopolitics and they will remain so "by a
 
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mehmet    Turkey vs, Greece who is better?   5/11/2009 1:12:17 AM
On the average Turkey has more weaponry at the scale of  10 to 7....but Turkey's weaponry the majority of it  is a little older!!!  Its military is roughly 5 to 6 times more than Greece!!!  After the Turkey's invasion and occupation of  roughly 35 to 40% of Cyprus...the majority of the Greek islands have been thoroughly fortified to prevent another "Cyprus scenario"..happening in the Greek Aegean sea!!!   The big Greek islands are full of military,,Apache helicopters, tanks,AA systems from the USA, France and Russia, including some Greek made!!!  As a matter of fact the USA army is purchasing some advance Greek systems for their army as well!  There has never been a war between Greece and Turkey!!!  But the last century there have  2 wars between Greece and the Ottoman Empire, in 1912-1913 and in 1919-1922  In 1912 the Ottoman empire had 30 times more population than Greece!!! But at the naval battles in the Aegean sea, the Greek navy won both times and the Ottoman navy was "locked up in the Dardanelles, the entrance to Bosporous" As a result the Greek navy liberated all the Aegean sea islands and beat the Ottoman Turks in battles for the liberation of Macedonia and Thrace!  As such, the Ottoman Turks not being able to resupply their forces  all Balkans were liberated from the Ottoman colonials!!! The war following between Greece and Bulgaria...was for basically control of the provinces of Macedonia and Thrace and although the Bulgarians had support from their Russian cousins...they lost and Greek borders extended to the river Evros by 1913!
 
After that treaties were signed,  the Turks helped by German guns, battleships and military officers re-organized and started again hostilities!  The neo-Turks could not "digest" being kicked out of the balkans and as such started the "genoside of all Christians basically in minor asia, but with more emphasis on Armenians and Greeks!!! First the Russians tried to help the Armenian Christians, but their navy lost the navy battles against the Ottomans in the black sea and the Ottomans ended up bombarding ..Odessa and Sevasopol, and as such the Russians were defeated and humiliated!!! Then the British and the French and the Italians tried to force the Ottomans to stop butchering the Christians in minor asia bu the Ottoman Turks they woulf not listen!! So... the score was settled at...Kallipoli, close to the entrance of the Dardanelles!!!  260,000 British, and French army against  Kemal and his 500,000 Ottoman Turkish troups!!!  The Ottoman Turks won and ...Churchill lost his position as...British secretary of war, and   British and Frence abandoned the minor asia Chistians and the genoside kept on going on!  The cries of  Greek and  Armenian Christians being bouchered by the Ottoman Turks were heard all the way to the Greek islands and mainland!!! The Greek prime minister Eleftherios Venizelos, demanded in Paris at a meeting   with the big three...USA, France and  Britain, that Greece, could  not wait any longer and was going to invade and stop the Christian genoside in minor asia!  And the big powers said to Greece...you are on your own!!!  Within a month.. kemal with his 1,000,000 army was waiting for the Greeks at kallipoli....but the Greek army(140,000.strong) devided in 2 fronts ...one landed at the port of Ismir and started moving north and the second group moved quickly from Evros river to within 30 kilometers  outside of  Istanbul and parked there waiting instructions from the ..polititians! The army that landed in Ismir was moving rapidly north to...encircle the Ottoman Turkish army of 1,000,000 headed by general Kemal who the year before beat the British and the French at kallipoli!  Rather than face the Greek army, Kemal withdrew to Ankara, and the forces guarding the entrance to the dardanelles surrendered to the greek army and the Greek battleships headed by the  battleship  Averoff...moved to within  500 meters from the Sultans palace in Istambul while the greek army was 30 kilometers outside of the city!!!  Then the ...British and French and the Italians...came to help with the negotiations!!!  Sultan would sign but kemal would not sign!!!  So the the Greeks started moving towards Ankara, the Italians landed in south-west and the French at the south East minor asia without a fight as Kemal was throwing everything he had against the Greeks! The Greeks ..."parked " outside of Ankara(about 35 kilometers) waiting for the negotiations that would never end!!! Change of leadership in Athens, the allies demanded that the Greeks withdraw from ankara, from Ismir and the battleship Averoff away from the Sultans palace, so he couls sleep at night in peace and so on!!!  At the end... the genoside stopped,  the Ottoman e
 
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Godofgamblers       5/11/2009 6:19:23 AM

On the average Turkey has more weaponry at the scale of  10 to 7....but Turkey's weaponry the majority of it  is a little older!!!  Its military is roughly 5 to 6 times more than Greece!!!  After the Turkey's invasion and occupation of  roughly 35 to 40% of Cyprus...the majority of the Greek islands have been thoroughly fortified to prevent another "Cyprus scenario"..happening in the Greek Aegean sea!!!   The big Greek islands are full of military,,Apache helicopters, tanks,AA systems from the USA, France and Russia, including some Greek made!!!  As a matter of fact the USA army is purchasing some advance Greek systems for their army as well!  There has never been a war between Greece and Turkey!!!  But the last century there have  2 wars between Greece and the Ottoman Empire, in 1912-1913 and in 1919-1922  In 1912 the Ottoman empire had 30 times more population than Greece!!! But at the naval battles in the Aegean sea, the Greek navy won both times and the Ottoman navy was "locked up in the Dardanelles, the entrance to Bosporous" As a result the Greek navy liberated all the Aegean sea islands and beat the Ottoman Turks in battles for the liberation of Macedonia and Thrace!  As such, the Ottoman Turks not being able to resupply their forces  all Balkans were liberated from the Ottoman colonials!!! The war following between Greece and Bulgaria...was for basically control of the provinces of Macedonia and Thrace and although the Bulgarians had support from their Russian cousins...they lost and Greek borders extended to the river Evros by 1913!

 

After that treaties were signed,  the Turks helped by German guns, battleships and military officers re-organized and started again hostilities!  The neo-Turks could not "digest" being kicked out of the balkans and as such started the "genoside of all Christians basically in minor asia, but with more emphasis on Armenians and Greeks!!! First the Russians tried to help the Armenian Christians, but their navy lost the navy battles against the Ottomans in the black sea and the Ottomans ended up bombarding ..Odessa and Sevasopol, and as such the Russians were defeated and humiliated!!! Then the British and the French and the Italians tried to force the Ottomans to stop butchering the Christians in minor asia bu the Ottoman Turks they woulf not listen!! So... the score was settled at...Kallipoli, close to the entrance of the Dardanelles!!!  260,000 British, and French army against  Kemal and his 500,000 Ottoman Turkish troups!!!  The Ottoman Turks won and ...Churchill lost his position as...British secretary of war, and   British and Frence abandoned the minor asia Chistians and the genoside kept on going on!  The cries of  Greek and  Armenian Christians being bouchered by the Ottoman Turks were heard all the way to the Greek islands and mainland!!! The Greek prime minister Eleftherios Venizelos, demanded in Paris at a meeting   with the big three...USA, France and  Britain, that Greece, could  not wait any longer and was going to invade and stop the Christian genoside in minor asia!  And the big powers said to Greece...you are on your own!!!  Within a month.. kemal with his 1,000,000 army was waiting for the Greeks at kallipoli....but the Greek army(140,000.strong) devided in 2 fronts ...one landed at the port of Ismir and started moving north and the second group moved quickly from Evros river to within 30 kilometers  outside of  Istanbul and parked there waiting instructions from the ..polititians! The army that landed in Ismir was moving rapidly north to...encircle the Ottoman Turkish army of 1,000,000 headed by general Kemal who the year before beat the British and the French at kallipoli!  Rather than face the Greek army, Kemal withdrew to Ankara, and the forces guarding the entrance to the dardanelles surrendered to the greek army and the Greek battleships headed by the  battleship  Averoff...moved to within  500 meters from the Sultans palace in Istambul while the greek army was 30 kilometers outside of the city!!!  Then the ...British and French and the Italians...came to help with the negotiations!!!  Sultan would sign but kemal would not sign!!!  So the the Greeks started moving towards Ankara, the Italians landed in south-west and the French at the south East minor asia without a fight as Kemal was throwing everything he had against the Greeks! The Greeks ..."parked " outside of Ankara(about 35 kilometers) waiting for the negotiations that would never
 
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Geezer       5/12/2009 1:14:36 PM
Better stick to the present reality.. it makes more sense.
 
Some numbers about the Airforces of the two countries:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HELLENIC AIR FORCE
 
  88  F-16 C/D Block 52+   (The last 30 started being delivered)
  40  F-16 C/D Block 50
  32  F-16 C/D Block 30
  25  Mirage 2000-5 mk2  (6 still under delivery)
  20  Mirage 2000 EGM/BGM
  35  F-4E AUP PI2000
 
  20  RF-4E
  86  A-7   (45 remain in full operation)

 * A purchase of 30-40 aircraft will be anounced "soon" so that the A-7 can retire.
   A second (similar sized) purchase will follow (2015-2020).

 
 
TURKISH AIR FORCE
 
  30  F-16 C/D Block50+   (Deliveries will start 2011-2012)
  73  F-16 C/D Block 40  
  36  F-16 C/D Block 30  
  52  F-4E 2020 Terminator
 
  91  F-4E    (60 of them remain operational)
  35  RF-4E  
  43  F-5 2000

  * F-16 CCIP, Level 3 partner in F-35 ($195 million contribution) - plans for 100 aircraft.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
As it is obvious the situation has TUAF with a slight numerical advantage on old aircraft, and HAF with a slight technological advantage on newer aircraft.
TUAF also utilizes popeye missiles and Harpy UAVs, giving it significant first strike capabilities. HAF on the other hand utilises Exocet and Scalp-EG enchancing air/surface and long range stand-off strikes.
 
The BVR missile stock is in clear favor of the HAF (as already discussed a few msgs earlier), having larger and diversified stockpile.
 
In the future the ballance is not going to change dramatically. TUAF is going to retire older aircraft replacing them by F-35, while HAF will retire its won aging aircraft by EF2000 or Rafale, plus another order of one of the two or an order of F-35 (according to the evaluation of F-35 in action over the next years).
 
 
 
 
The recent apointment of Mr. Davotoglu (a neo-ottoman theoretic that among others claims that the aegean islands are just an extension of turkey...) as head of the turkish foreign ministry, coupled with ever escalating provocations on the Aegean (flights even above Greek soil), sound as sure trouble in the short/mid term future. I cannot but only speculate about its magnitude, it can range from a circus-show like the 1996 Imia crisis up to a conflict that will take place in both the Aegean and Thracian front.
 
From the higher echelons of the Greek MoD it is stated that no turkish action in the Aegean (or elsewhere) will remain unanswered, but it will face a similar or greater magnitude agressive "response". 

 
 
 
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