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Subject: EU/USA War, based on a specific scenario
mightypeon    9/14/2005 11:25:31 AM
Well, such a thing has been debated quite often, but never with a semirealistc Scenario in mind. Lets just go with the following quite random timeline: 2005/2006: several minor annoyances and trade disagreements happen between Europe and the USA. Bsuh, who is figures that he needs a populartiy boost seeks a spacegoat and starts a Nation wide Germany and France bashing campaign. Beeing bashed by Bush promtply leds to the reelection of Chancellor Schroeder. Spring 2006: The European Iranian talks come to a break, Iran stops its Nuclear programm as well as the support of terrorist groups in Israel, in exchange it gains a host of European arms. Amongst them is a shipment of 400 Leopard 2A4 tanks (in fact, Iran gets the Europane equipment the Europeans would have exchanged or upgraded enyway) In addition, the Iranians grant European companies first rights in developing Iranian Oil fields. Summer 2006 While the irani army is getting trained with their new equipment, a heavy shiite uprising breaks out in eastern Irak. The Shiites demand to be a part of Iran, the rebellion is crushed by the US military. 11.09.06 The US are hit by Terroists. The Gouverment claims Iran to be the culprit. The forces that just crushed the Shiite Rebellion in eastern Irak move up the border. Seeing a hole in the Iranian defense, an US general asks for permission to invade and gets it. While diplomatic conuselatins are still ongoing, the US troops overwhelm the tactically suprsied and not fully trained Irani border forces with minimal losses. The US imprisons the equally suprised European staff still teaching the Iranis. 18.09.06: While US forces are making further progress into Iran, the EU demands the freedom of its instruction staff. 19.09.06: Bush says "that the Europeans can kiss his behind" in an Interview. 20.09.06: German troops surround US bases in Germany. 21.09.06 Seeing America is distracted, Shiite rebels in Irak rise up again. All European powers cancel any overflight rights to the US that have been previously in place. A violent Mob lynches several Germans in a rural american willage, the local police stands by, of course this leads to another uproar in the EU. 22.09.06 With aid from local rebels, a British officer of Pakistani origin manages to escape his prison camp. He shoots a GI while doing so. 23.09.06 The American advance is stalled by logistal problems and constant partisan warfare. 24.09.06 Rumors inclince that the runaway British officer is activly particiapting in the Irani resistance. Pakistan cancel its cooperation with the US. 25.09.06 Under the cover of bad weather, the Iranis start are quick, dedicated and determined counter offensive against the US forces. The US line is breached. The way of the attack implies the Iranis had satellite info on the American positions, as well as human intelligence sources in the American army. In addition, the attack was carefully cordinated with partisan activites in the Ameriakn rear. The American gouverment blames the EU on the defeat and threatens consequences. Schroeder is cited saying "America and which army?" in a private circle. 26.09.05 A massive American airstrike takes out a lot of Irans ammunition producing facilites. Several EU cititzens are killed during the attack. Due to a misprinted order, a imprisoned European instructor is sent to Guantanamo because he shares the name of a terrorist. 27.09.06 The interment of a European instructor interred in Guantanamo is leaked to the BBC. Diplomatic relations between the EU countries and the USA are severed. China proclaims its neutrality in an eventual conflict. Fistfights break out before American Baracks in Germany. 28.09.06 Backed up by reeinforcements, the US manage to flank the Irani force. Hoping on the fact that the US have other problems to take care off, Iran offers peace talks. 29.09.06 A first ceasefire between Iran and the USA is concluded. Iran sends some "terrorists" to the US and labels them as the bad evil instigators. 30.09.06 The US refuses to return the still held instructors. The EU ulitmativly demand the return of the instructors. German troops move into 2 logistical US bases in Germany and arrest the American troops. 01.10.06 Led by a overly rash American Colonell, a Batallion of bradleys fires at approaching German troops. Beeing led by an equally rash German Oberst, the Leopard 2A6 MBTs fire back. The USA and Europe are at war. Now that we have a Scenario, what would be your predictions?
 
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french stratege    Darth   9/18/2005 8:09:19 PM
I ask you: how much do we need nukes to deter you? 5000?50000?
 
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Braddock    Scenario Prediction   9/18/2005 8:21:30 PM
Well, such a thing has been debated quite often, but never with a semirealistc Scenario in mind. Lets just go with the following quite random timeline: 2005/2006: several minor annoyances and trade disagreements happen between Europe and the USA. Bush, who is figures that he needs a popularity boost seeks a spcapegoat and starts a Nation wide Germany and France bashing campaign. Beeing bashed by Bush promptly leds to the reelection of Chancellor Schroeder. *European support is vital to everything we do in a strategic and global sense. The use of scapegoat tactics for political purposes is a peacetime tactic of lesser men. We are currently in one of the most dangerous periods in history. Our configurative force commitments in Europe clearly state our intent to maintain strong alliances with our European allies. Braddock Spring 2006: The European Iranian talks come to a break, Iran stops its Nuclear programm as well as the support of terrorist groups in Israel, in exchange it gains a host of European arms. Amongst them is a shipment of 400 Leopard 2A4 tanks (in fact, Iran gets the Europane equipment the Europeans would have exchanged or upgraded enyway) In addition, the Iranians grant European companies first rights in developing Iranian Oil fields. *Iran enjoys support from and wields heavy support on the Arab street. Iran will not risk losing this influence by denouncing its ties with radical fundamentalist groups. Iran uses this power to close the gap of influence in the Middle East between itself and Pakistan. This sets the stage for a shift in majority influence by Iran upon their being successful in developing a nuclear weapons capability in continuity with their strategic alliance with Russia: "A powerful Russia is Iran's best friend, and a powerful Iran is Russia's best friend." Quote From Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Tehran offers nuclear expertise By David R. Sands THE WASHINGTON TIMES September 16, 2005 Russia will be Iran’s primary choice for military equipment shipments in exchange for oil and economic trade agreements. Braddock Summer 2006 While the irani army is getting trained with their new equipment, a heavy shiite uprising breaks out in eastern Irak. The Shiites demand to be a part of Iran, the rebellion is crushed by the US military. 11.09.06 The US are hit by Terroists. The Gouverment claims Iran to be the culprit. The forces that just crushed the Shiite Rebellion in eastern Irak move up the border. Seeing a hole in the Iranian defense, an US general asks for permission to invade and gets it. While diplomatic conuselatins are still ongoing, the US troops overwhelm the tactically suprsied and not fully trained Irani border forces with minimal losses. The US imprisons the equally suprised European staff still teaching the Iranis. *G-8 nation representatives would be required ( as an act of solidarity with America, a fellow G-8 nation) to pull its instructors out of Iran until Iran’s complicity has been proved or disproved in regards to the terrorist attack on America. Braddock 18.09.06: While US forces are making further progress into Iran, the EU demands the freedom of its instruction staff. *America would not take prisoners who come from G-8 nations initially, as they would expect them to be pulled out as stated in the previous response. Braddock 19.09.06: Bush says "that the Europeans can kiss his behind" in an Interview. *This will not happen. Braddock 20.09.06: German troops surround US bases in Germany. *This will not happen. The rest of this scenario is not realistic. Braddock 21.09.06 Seeing America is distracted, Shiite rebels in Irak rise up again. All European powers cancel any overflight rights to the US that have been previously in place. A violent Mob lynches several Germans in a rural american willage, the local police stands by, of course this leads to another uproar in the EU. 22.09.06 With aid from local rebels, a British officer of Pakistani origin manages to escape his prison camp. He shoots a GI while doing so. 23.09.06 The American advance is stalled by logistal problems and constant partisan warfare. 24.09.06 Rumors inclince that the runaway British officer is activly particiapting in the Irani resistance. Pakistan cancel its cooperation with the US. 25.09.06 Under the cover of bad weather, the Iranis start are quick, dedicated and determined counter offensive against the US forces. The US line is breached. The way of the attack implies the Iranis had satellite info on the American positions, as well as human intelligence sources in the American army. In addition, the attack was carefully cordinated with partisan activites in the Ameriakn rear. The American gouverment blames the EU on the defeat and threatens consequences. Schroeder is cited saying "America and which army?" in a private circle. 26.09.05 A massive American airstri
 
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DarthAmerica    RE:Scenario Prediction   9/18/2005 9:03:38 PM
Concur with Braddock more or less. EVERYTHING after 19.09.06 is not possible for political and military realities.
 
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DarthAmerica    RE:Darth-FS   9/18/2005 9:07:41 PM
>>>I ask you: how much do we need nukes to deter you? 5000?50000?<<< ---That depends what the objective is. But in this scenario, what you have isnt enough considering the consequences of the scenario.
 
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Pseudonym    RE:Darth-FS   9/18/2005 9:11:24 PM
">>>I ask you: how much do we need nukes to deter you? 5000?50000?<<< ---That depends what the objective is. But in this scenario, what you have isnt enough considering the consequences of the scenario." Also considering our possession of Stealth technology, you might wish to have enough weapons to survive an American air attack, and the US Navy for your Boomers at sea.
 
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Shirrush    RE: Hhhhh!   9/18/2005 9:25:57 PM
(That was a sigh.) Don't you go thinkin' I can let this pass without digging in and attempting to contribute some of my own lack of insight and sheer stupidity. As the French would say: "si tu veux jouer au plus khon avec moi, t'es pas pres d'gagner." First of all, Mightypeon's scenario does not hold much water, and in fact pisses out through a good number of substantial perforations. The basic assumption, that Iran surrenders it's nuke project and renounces it's terrorist assets and it's genocidal antisemitism in exchange for a couple of tank brigades it doesn't need, is nothing less than eschatological. When this happens, the Messiah-Scion-of-David will certainly be seated on his throne in Jerusalem smoking pot and getting BJ's from the proverbial 72 Virgins. As of tonight, no amount of Europe bashing on America's behalf has been necessary to let Gerhard Schroeder somewhat in office, although he will have to share the room with Ossie Angie. We're pretty smug around here, seeing the Germans putting themselves in a situation we are rather experienced with, that will introduce them to the dubious delights of coalition maneuvering, but hey, even democracy doesn't get it right every time, does it? There is a good chance even, that Schroeder's unassailable leadership qualities will put him in the driver's seat again, and hopefully our favorite German politician will also keep his job owing to his party's excellent poll results, and I'll be dipped in dogjit if Joschka Fischer ever agrees to sell Leo-zwei tanks to ANY country that might ever think of using them, let alone a country in the Middle East! If the Khamenei cowboys ever get W. European horses, these will have to be Leclercs or my name is Mustafa Ibn Sharmoota-al-Khanzeer, and I'm very skeptical that the Russians will let this happen anyway since they've also got stuff to sell to Iran, and they were there first! In any case, if the 180 degrees turn in Iranian policies as predicted by Mightypeon happens, the US forces will probably be out of Iraq the NEXT MORNING, to be home in Wichita, Ka, in time for the WOT victory celebrations with the wife n'kids. If one thing is certain, it is that a possible US-EU conflict will not be initiated by the capture of Euro military advisers by US troops in hot pursuit of terrorists. Instead, many events could lead to this, and Europe has enough history to prove that it can suffer millions of casualties in wars that nobody really wanted. This, and the obviously diverging interests of both sides should be a sufficient reason for the US to redeploy their forces out of Germany, since these troops are needed elsewhere and their presence on German soil only serves the economic interests of the local communities around i.e. Spangdahlem and Ramstein, that could easily return to their previous occupations of making things exceedingly well and successfully selling them at a decent profit against much cheaper competition. I'm not overly worried about the possible outcome of such a conflict. The Americans should remember that the apparent patriotism of Bluebite and Fernand-Sebastien Coquoricault is nothing more than a facade meant to disinform, as is the apparent willingness of the aforementioned FS (Coquoricault) to type himself into jail when he writes so knowledgeably about missile manufacturing processes and nuclear warhead assembly logistics. The French do not enjoy anything as much as betraying their own country, and their adversary does not even need to be suitably jackbooted and goosestepping for them to indulge in this national pastime of theirs. As to the Germans, the Italians, the Spaniards, the Dutch, the Danes and the rest, they are probably too smart and too enamored of the peacetime, a real historical novelty as far as non-Swiss Europeans are concerned, to even think that there's anything worth fighting for. It leaves the French with little more than the Greeks for anti-American allies, since they share their strutting bellicism as well as their visceral antisemitism. I also trust the British not to join a bellicose coalition against the US, even in the unlikely event the US administration accumulates diplomatic mistakes to such an extent that it causes America to loose all it's traditional allies. After all, the Limeys love to win at least as much as the Yanks do, and have no special affection for neither the Frogs nor the Jerries. I only remember the tone of the European critics of President Ronald Reagan, when he was trying to address the Soviet IRBM threat back in the Eighties. That makes the present Bush-bashing seem like compliments in comparison!
 
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blacksmith    RE:EU/USA War, based on a specific scenario   9/18/2005 10:08:36 PM
Haven't read the whole thread, this is response to original post: 2005/2006 - The only countries Bush has ever bashed were the original Axis of Evil partners (Iraq, Iran, North Korea) because, let's face it, they were the mortal enemies of the US and most other countries as well. Schoeder on the other hand, effectively (or based on teh results today, ineffectively) campaigned by bashing the United States, since he has nothing else to run on. Bush would not bash Germany or France BECAUSE HE HAS TOO MUCH CLASS. Wouldn't it be nice if the oh, so well bred Europeans had as much. Spring 2006 - Haven't the Europeans already dropped drawers and bent over in front of the Iranians? This isn't a prediction. Summer 2006 - Why does everyone think (hope?) that the Shia in Iraq want to be Iranian? The Iranians are persian. The Iraqis are arab. The practice Shiaism differently. It would be like Presbyterians suddenly wanting to be Southern Baptist. 11-Sep-06 - The US would not imprision the European instructors. They are representatives of real countries the US is not (currently) at war with and had legitimate reasons for being there. As long as they did not actually bear arms against US forces, they would be shipped home post haste. 19-Sep-06 - Once again, Bush has too much class to say that. Besides which, the instructors would already have been returned. etc, etc. Europe won't go to war to defend itself. It surely isn't going to go to war to defend Iran.
 
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kalaloch    RE:EU/USA War, based on a specific scenario   9/18/2005 11:05:06 PM
I have, through today, done my best to read this entire thread without bursting out in laughter that would have my medication increased. While I recognize there are a number of posts by highly intelligent, and well informed, individuals; it seems apparent that wishful thinking still remains one of the Europeans primary weapons. In case any of you children haven't come across a fairly good representation of this hypothetical scenario, try reading "Cauldron" or "The Ten Thousand". Each has different particulars for how things go horribly wrong between the US and France/Germany. However, the outcome in these novels remains the same as it would be in real life...Germany and France would lose, and badly. On the issue of ASAT capabilities. None of you kids pointed out that any cyclops with a telescope can visually locate an orbiting sat. Further, in Mr. Dunnigan's work "How To Make War"; he demonstrated how easy it would be to use an off-the-shelf sounding rocket with a couple of pounds of roofing nails to make any sat have a last, bad, day. This is a simple, low-tech approach that can and is able to work even for the idiot religious fanatics...although it does require a certain reading level beyond the third grade. A reality that cannot be dismissed is that France, for all its "show", is a paper tiger at best. I mean, really, these people can't even build a nuclear powered aircraft carrier right after three tries with the same boat. No other force would have to oppose the DeGaul, just induce it to increase to flank speed and watch all of its electrical systems go into shutdown. The only military structure available to France that the world at-large has any respect for is the Legion; and they will only go around so far. Most of the world still repects the Germans, even 60 years after the end of WWII. The unfortunate, and stark reality is that the Germans lack perishable combat experience. While training, equipment and morale may seem good; they have no practical experience on the battle field. It's even worse for the French, who have yet to put their LeClerc against any other modern battle field opponent, much less see exactly how their "transformation" plans have worked out over the past 15 years. While I clearly understand the precept of some German politck knee-jerk reaction to the very idea of "arresting" US military personnel at bases in Germany; and the the so-called American public reaction at seeing US forces surrounded and overwhelmed by hostile German/French forces (and let's be honest, the Germans are not going to squeek against anyone these days without clear backup); well, kids...that's not at all how it would play out. Only a new, ultra-nationalist in power in Germany would even contemplate moving against the US military bases. That's not likely to happen within the next year. Further, both Germany and France have had ring-side seats to the demonstration of the US Air Force's global reach over the past 15 years; and that no-kidding would make them think twice. No political leader wants to start hostilities without an almost iron-clad assurance of victory, not in a "democracy" anyway. France has experienced more than one revolt by their armed forces. There are enough senior level German military people who retain a sincere, healthy respect for US military capabilities. I can assure you, while some elements of the German body politc may make noise, no senior German officer would look forward to a real shooting war with the US. I have seen how a number of you have posted what would qualify the US reaching a "nuclear decision". I find each and every one of your theories dubious. While, yes, our SSN numbers have been reduced over the years, France and Germany would find a true horror-show on their hands with declared war, and the Los Angeles class boats out there first irradicating the French in the Med; and then going after shipping. Germany lacks any genuine maritime power projection capability; and the US has already shown it's willing to sacrifice aircrews if needs be to seal an enemy harbor with mines. While Britain would have to stand on the side-lines in any such potential conflict that did not directly threaten its national survival, Poland might not be so inclined. There are very long memories in Poland, and they have exceptionally warm feelings towards the US. While they might have to keep an eye on Belarus, Ukraine gives them a secure, safe backside, and Germany would know this. But, back the one of the initial thoughts...that an American general detected a weakness in the Iranian lines, sought for and received approval for offensive action. Are you sober??? Since Viet Nam, American doctrine has changed to be one of overwhelming force at the outset, coordinated, in depth, at all levels. While it's entirely possible any American general might see an opening, the likelyhood of their getting approval for solo offensive action is right up there with unicorns. A milita
 
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crashnburn    RE:EU/USA War, based on a specific scenario/kalaloch   9/19/2005 1:05:16 AM
Now that was a good post.As I said before the scenerio isn't plausible in content or structure.I think I said it was stupid.The US would not need to go nuclear to take on the French, or the Germans.Everyone must remember the French are very good at isolating themselves througout the world, let alone within the european community. Kalaloch is very correct in his assesment of how the world truly views the US forces after their effecticeness has been proven twice in Iraq, Afganistan, & Bosnia, etc.Some on this board always like to sweep the effectivness of operations in Iraq under the rug.What other force on the earth could do this? I mean we are talking total liquidization of 5th largest military in the world in weeks.(2 times)All of this done with a vey small percentage of possible force projection. Not a JOKE!! Are the French not currently negociating with the Brits to build their new carrier for them?I read this somewhere. I swear I did.I'll try to find it. PS No, he could have been sober. Crash
 
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crashnburn    RE:EU/USA War, based on a specific scenario/kalaloch/oops   9/19/2005 1:37:26 AM
Sorry about all grammer errors. I did not catch them until I was getting ready shut down for the night. Oh well,that is why we need a preview, or larger viewing window.At least the content is ledgeable. Crash
 
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