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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
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Jimme    RE:How rank France in world power?   4/23/2005 10:43:24 PM
Economic power: I think Unemployment rate needs to go down considirable. Diplomatic influence: I dont See France being a real strong factor in this area. For most part i think France is viewed as uneccesarily arogant and pushy (no offense, its just the feed back i get from my UN friends). While the same can be said of the US, haveing the biggest stick can go a long way. Also France has to show the willingness to act when necessary. Diplomacy isnt all compliments and blowing sunshine up someones arse. Respect and fear go a long way too. After Iraq u think Syria or Iran is going to tell Bush directly to piss off? Sensitivity to energy imports: Some indigineous oil sources would be nice.If not a sizable oilreserve. Sensitivity to embargo: same as above and also local raw building matteriels.(africa might be cut off ) Military technology: pretty good here. Nukes: Not as important as it used to be. not much difference between 100 or 500. Military skills: not the best but not the worst. and as for SA, probably wiser not to send much hated Americans into the holiest Muslim city of all. Mitary capacities. Force projection is meaningless If no force is ever projected. I think france is still a ways off though probably closer then most. I just dont understand why France feels the need to be a super power?
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ret13f    RE:How rank France in world power?   4/23/2005 10:48:16 PM
For what its worth, in 1939 France was considered the premier world power.
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DropBear    RE:How rank France in world power?   4/24/2005 12:18:04 AM
You have all this splendor, yet you have a crap rugby team.
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Godofgamblers    good post   4/24/2005 4:54:51 AM
good post, FS, full of info. you forgot to mention that French economy is very sophisticated, mostly service based, and relies little on trade with the US (7% of trade with the US). most power supplied by domestic nuclear power; strong presence in africa; leads various organizations of Francophone states; benefit of the Euro currency which seems poised to equal the dollar as a 'safeholding' currency that countries will choose to park their reserves in; one of the world's foremost educational systems and human resources. france has few natural enemies, if any, and enjoys a good reputation in africa and the third world generally. its role in world affairs is set to increase as its power and prestige increase through the EU.... at least this is the plan. we'll see how this turns out in practice.
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coolboyjay    RE:How rank France in world power - utter crap   4/24/2005 8:19:13 AM
>> In fact we can CRUSH any latin america or African nation, invade Arabia peninsula or south east asian nations, strike (and destroy their navy) on Iran, China, Pakistan or India without important losses.<< Sorry to start from this one, but the issue is a lil close to ma heart. Now, unless u are talking nukes there is no way u'd be able to srtike either india or china without serious losses.. U don't have the navy to venture into Indian territorial waters and withstand our naval and Air force attack. Same goes with china... Economic front: Ask yourself how much has ur economy grown since 1990? What rate is it growing? Sure the Euro zone is all hunky dory.. but, still I don't see any growth within germany or france. diplomacy: hmm.. would not trust french diplomacy with the crisis in my neighbourhood. Tell me one breakthrough of french diplomacy in the recent years!! I could go on and on.. but I'd rather go and play tennis.. byee
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french stratege    coolboyjay : Striking India   4/24/2005 12:33:04 PM
Let see India then China. For both the goal is to humiliate them and sink major warship without loss of the CdG. Humiliation is done by firing at least 200 cruise missiles on major sites like ministry of defense , parlement, R&D and some plants ... For India we can also blackmail them with nukes as they can not retaliate until they have an ICBM able to reach Paris. India: I made an error as India have now 16 potent SSK (kilo and 209).I did not update by knowledge on Indian navy enough. India AF have 75 Mig29A, 54 M2000, 30 SU30, 6 tanker, 5AEW from 2006 to 2008. Today AEW capacity is non existant and their is no Yakhont. French task force will stay at 1600 km of Indian coast at least.1 CDG+ 17 frigates.CdG with 32 ASTER 15 and 3E2C.In 2006 first horizon, then 1/year so 144 ASTER 30 in 2009. Rafale number from 15 in 2006 to 30 in 2009 in board.Then 28 Superetendard reduced to 14 in 2009 (max Cdg capacity as ASW/SAR helos are dispatched on other ships like Mistral).SuperEtendard can refuel Rafale. 5 SSN available . In Djibouti 15 C135 tankers plus up to 26 Transall tanker and 80 M2000D/RAFALE F2/M2000-5, 20 ATLG3 ASW, 2E3F. We have 300 cruise missile available. India scenario (non nuclear but we can do it): We will hit west coast of India from Djibouti with air refueling supported by 2E3F. We have 3 option for CdG: Wait for Indian attack 1600 km away west/south coast of India.We use 14 Supertendard to refuel 14 Rafale to hit with 28 cruise missile targets in India.1E2C support Rafale strike raid. India has to use its navy to remove this threat. With Indian surface navy , it is impossible as you can not cope with Cdg and its long range antiship airstrikes. With SSK: 11 SSK available for India vs 5 SSN, 20 ATLG3 and 14 ASW frigate.If we are able to destroy by surprise 3 to 5 SSK at harbor you are out.If not we need more SSK. For luck, we have 4 SSK refited in the ninetees in storage (Agosta 80) and crew are today trained on SSN.Recently one have been reactivated to train Malaysian crews in France on ASW. AS we have double crew on SSN and sonar system are the same, we can recrew 4 SSK in 3 months.A SSBN can be free maybe. We have alway a SSK in delivery we can prempt.So we can have maybe 6 SSK/SSBN more.Then we push our available subs to 10/11. Today margin is weak I agree. Other option is to size an island: 2 possibilities: Maldives or Adaman.If Adaman are reinforced we could surely invade, after a bombing campaign as indian air force can not support that.CDG +3 LPH+4 LSD available+civilian transport. If Indian navy try to save Adaman garrison, it is naval battle and we probabaly won. If we get Maldive we can base airforce 1500 km away India.If we get Adaman India is completely humiliated by loss of territory. After 2008: how much yakhont have India vs number of ASTER30/15 inboard.Are SU30 able to cross the French shield of 30 Rafale plus 3 E2C? In anyway we can still strike India from Djibouti or la Réunion.Preparation need 3 month at least without nuclear option.India can not retaliate on France. In afct I agree India is almost in the set of power we can not fight from sea because their navy is too strong in modern SSN/SSK (US, Russia, Japan, UK).However long range strike by Airforce still possible to maintain humiliating pressure. China : More simple as their navy is less powerfull on modern SSK/SSN. We can strike western inland China via Burma with rafales air refueled by SuperEtendard.china Navy and SSK would be unable to fight efficiently in Indian ocean.Politically Burma is today a weak China ally. We can take Burma to establish air bases.Other option more difficult is via Cambodia as French is the most influencial country and pay for them.They hate Chinese and it is maybe possible to put a French puppet in power. A third one is long range strike behind taiwan of in South China sea out of range of most of China airforce.Or to kill a bunch of Chinese warship with SSN or at long range with CdG. Humiliation done. In both case it is rather risky but feasible.It underline for me the need to rebuild our sub force to 10 SSN and to get ASAP the second carrier. However we have pretty good relations with India and Ok vs China.
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JIMF    RE:How rank France in world power?   4/24/2005 12:43:41 PM
Very impressive FS, as far as I'm concerned you get the silver medal. However, I think the main problems facing France in the coming years are related to demography, and immigration. The former is certainly not a new problem for France, but declining birthrates do not bode well for the future. Another possible problem is Germany re-asserting itself in various ways as the dominant European power, and no longer saluting the Tricolor twice as Dumnuttzer said. Arrogance cost France dearly in her three modern wars with Germany, interesting that you regard it as a virtue.
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GOP    RE:How rank France in world power?   4/24/2005 3:21:01 PM
I would rank the world powers like this: 1. USA 2. China 3. Russia 4. India 5. >>>France<<< France does not have the diplomatic influence of the USA, China, or Russia, but more than the UK or anyone else. France does not have the military power of the top 4 But, other than that, you are right. I don't believe that France could destroy the Chinese or Indian navy, though. And you will not catch up with the US as far as military power or diplomatic power for a long time
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Roman    Ranking is difficult but perhaps around 7 for France    4/24/2005 4:55:55 PM
It is difficult to rank a country's power overall, but as a ballpark figure I would place France as approximately 7th in the world just ahead of the U.K. and Germany. Of course, this will not last long as France continues to be Islamized through massive Muslim immigration and the large birthrates of Muslims already in France even as the native French population keeps shrinking with a fertility rate of mere 1.2. This will ensure that either France will continue to decline as a great power or perhaps it may remain a great power but will become a Muslim great power.
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Bluewings    RE:How rank France in world power?   4/24/2005 7:40:34 PM
If the year is 2010+ , France is indeed the 2nd World Power . Cheers .
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