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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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Jimme    RE:french potential   6/13/2005 10:05:45 PM
Why is immigration such a problem for nations like France? Living in the US i can see what a great resource they have been. Being a fairly young country tho we dont have ancient tradition to deal with so the US can kinda go with the flow. France however has very deep history and tradition which i think is what makes the immigration a problem. Would France have to bite the bullet and accept outsider influence into its core culture? Would they have to stop the flow of immigrations? And how would they deal with the declining birthrates? An interesting study in the US pointed out that without the influx of the Hispanic population the US would be is a similare birthrate situation as Europe.
 
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Godofgamblers    RE: french immigration YIMME   6/13/2005 10:16:57 PM
i'm not french and i've spent little time in france, but i think the problem is not immigration in itself, it was the choice to accept immigrants from one country (culture), northern africa. there are so many northern africans that it has created a parallel society. they are not assimilating and since there are so many of them, they don't have to. it would have been wiser to follow the aus or canadian model where mass immigration is allowed, but of various nationalities. they tend to mix, as they have no choice. if you were to accept, say, 5million chinese, you would find that they would congregate and create a vast chinatown and there would be friction between the chinese and the local population. hwoever, if you allow immigrants in from two dozen different countries, there is less danger in creating a "block" or a "ghetto". second generation french-arabs ('reubs' as they are called) still speak in arabic to each other... this is a bad sign. they feel little loyalty or identification with france.
 
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Grenadier Voltigeur    RE: french immigration YIMME   6/14/2005 7:10:10 AM
Yes and NO. It's true some anti-french islamist and nationalistice feelings exist in the immigration-issued youth, but its a kind of rebellion and identity crisis like skinheads or things like that. Something symbolic is when you came across a mosquée in a disavantaged sector. On one sidewalk, you see all the old moslems, born in Maghreg, who are happily chatting and smoking (smoking is forbidden by Islam). On the opposite sidewalk, you see youg men with beard and traditional clothe. These ones are born in France... But its interesting to see that even young french muslims coming from disadvantaged neighborhood find in the Army and nice way to exit their ty life. They believe in strenght, and French Army take the advantage. About the alliance: China is an enemy for France as for USA or Russia. Chinese despise western values. I think that in a near future, and with the actual breakdown of EU, France and Germany will be closer to Russia, to counter american intelligence in eastern Europe (Ukraine, and soon Belarus) France and Germany love each other, and Russia have a long historic tradition with these two country. Culturally, these three country are upset of Anglo-saxon hypocrisy and mercantilism, and deeply despise the superficialiy of American culture. France and Germany are one block, that we'll call soon FrancoGermany. This block is upset of American interventionnism, but less than the Russian! See how CIA makes crawling coups in Ukraine, Georgia... This alliance will work. In 50 years US will exist no more. They are going to break their teeth on the Chinese hive...
 
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trib    RE:French Intelligence   6/14/2005 7:41:08 AM
you can have a fast look on the french intelligence and recon agencies on this web site http://www.fas.org/irp/world/france/index.html
 
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Godofgamblers    grenadier: your comments   6/14/2005 8:01:20 AM
i think you're going a bit far... trying to stir the pot? i don't think it's polite to say that someone's country will one day not exist. that is not strategy talk; in fact, some might find it offensive. my country, for instance, is artificial in a sense in that it is made up of many different cultures that were arbitarily put together in a political union. few are buying are 25-year treasury bonds he he... howevever, many countries around the world as well as investment banks employing some of the smartest minds in the world buy US 25-year T-bills... why is this? do you think you know something they don't? je vous conseille de ne pas chercher a offusquer, grenadier... svp... on vient de vivre des moments assez penibles a propos des cas semblables a SP. a quoi bon sortir des commentaires de la sorte?... reflichissez-y, svp. merci
 
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Grenadier Voltigeur    RE:GoG -c'est un malentendu   6/14/2005 8:26:29 AM
I forget one word! It was not "US will exist no more" bu "US power will exist no more" Mea culpa
 
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Godofgamblers    RE:GoG -c'est un malentendu   6/14/2005 8:51:45 AM
ah! important nuance. thanks for the correction.
 
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ShallowThinker1    RE:french potential   6/14/2005 9:18:52 AM
GoG, I have to ask for your help re: this... france can and will broker alliances and is much more adept at 'realpolitik' than the US, I fail to see much evidence that France is some past of present master of the art of realpolitik. I'm not sure how far back you want to go, but France has frequently (nearly unfailingly?) been eventually thwarted in her efforts to establish and/or maintain international position. England (Pitt the Elder) thwarted France's North American and Indian endeavors in the mid-18th Century. The Louis and Talleyrand had some success, as did Napolean, but they were obviously eventually thwarted. The French presence in the Western Hemisphere was eventually reduced to almost nothing. France was driven from most of its interests in Asia and twice overrun by the Huns. In the second half of the 20th Century France has attempted Eurabia and to gain control of the EU. Both of these efforts seem well on their way to being thwarted. Honestly, I fail to see how France has any claim to being particularly adept at international realpolitik. What I see is a nation that frequently picks the wrong horses to either ride or bet on. but although immigrants are a strength for the US, i think they are less so for France. The immigrant factor is not a strong one in france's favor. the chinese come with a lot of capital, the indian's with human capital; the arabs seem to contribute little to france. the only hope is to integrate them because their civilization on its own has little to contribute to french society, IMO. in fact, many of their qualities are ANTITHETICAL to french culture. I don't know if France gets a different category of emmigre from China or India than does the US. I do have a great deal of contact with people from China and India (as well as Korea and Vietnam) here in the US. Chinese immigrants here bring enormous "human capital" as you call it; their discipline is downright legendary here. It is nearly impossible to "out work" the typical Chinese immigrant. Indian immigrants come from what seems the two ends of the economic spectrum. While both ends bring great "human capital" (discipline and willingness to work) the "higher end" apparently has access to significant financial capital. This is just my observation of people - the higher order business and financial "investments" I am not privy to. As I said, I have no knowledge of immigrants in France. While people in general have a tendency to group themselves culturally the US is still very powerful in terms of "Americanizing" immigrants. The children of both Chinese and Indian immigrants tend very strongly toward "Americanization". A Euro at this point probably rolls his eyes and figures that is a bad thing but I can assure you, they seem to know little of what that means and entails. the good things about france are strongly rooted in its past, its traditions, in europe. I won't dispute that these are among the "good things" about France but I remain unconvinced that these things "travel well". Like you, this is IMHO ;)
 
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ShallowThinker1    The value of Ancient Culture   6/14/2005 9:30:06 AM
I keep hearing this matter of "ancient culture and traditions" being bandied about as having some sort of magical value. France is presented as having an "ancient" culture while the US is "young". The US has been building whatever our "culture" is for a very long time - the early 17th century. In that time France has gone from one of the most lavish monarchies the world has known, through Let them eat cake, to tumultuous revolutions, an emporer/conquerer, several republics and a couple pretty nasty and ruinous wars. Aside from ancient cuisine and art, how does this "ancientness" translate into the culture present today? As "young" as American "culture" is we can easily point to roots and influences nearly 400 years old. IMO Europeans (and others) overstimate both the "ancientness" of their own cultures and the "youth" of American culture.
 
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Godofgamblers    RE:french potential ST   6/14/2005 10:34:16 AM
i agree with everything you say about indian and chinese immigrants; they are a dynamic and positive force and americanize fairly easily, though i would argue that slavs are even better as chinese and indians put more store by their home cultures, at least it seems to me. most immigration from france at the moment is from North Africa; they are not assimilating well, which is causing friction at the moment. this is probably only temporary, but they are not as dynamic as the typical immigrant to the US (take the koreans in the US, for instance: the average morroccan can't compare!). as for realpolitik, i admit it was a rather vague statement. i didn't say, though, that they were successful, merely that they are practising it at this point in time. for instance, the US tends to form alliances with like-minded cultures, esp. the anglo saxon ones. meanwhile, i don't think france is seeking out catholic or francophone partners: by realpolitik, i mean france is willing to consider purely strategic imperatives at the present moment. thus, we cannot rule out a french alliance with china or russia, while the US, obviously, would probably not warm up to the chinese as fast. hope this clears things up; anyway, don't take what i say too seriously. i could be completely wrong:)
 
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