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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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gf0012-aust    RE:OPFOR needs a new devils advocate.. - ex-98C    5/19/2005 6:27:13 PM
looks like you scored a bloodless coup d'etat...
 
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ex-98C    RE:OPFOR needs a new devils advocate.. - ex-98C    5/19/2005 7:11:46 PM
What can I say? its good to be the King..er president
 
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Bluewings    RE:OPFOR needs a new devils advocate.. - ex-98C    5/19/2005 7:35:53 PM
lol !! ~thumb up~ Alright ... Where were we ? Shall we just keep going from where we are ? Cheers .
 
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ex-98C    RE:OPFOR needs a new devils advocate.. - ex-98C    5/19/2005 7:52:38 PM
Sure, a review might be nice though. I would nort have sent my airforce out against the CdeG. I would have mined the ports, closed the Canal to French traffic, and called up the reserves. You still going with the 2 a day major airstrikes? with assorted smaller raids from Chad and Djibouti?
 
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Bluewings    RE:OPFOR needs a new devils advocate.. - ex-98C    5/19/2005 7:59:53 PM
We need a timing . I believe France can pull it off , but how long would it takes ? From where we are , my best estimate is : 1 week to sail the Fleet to where we are now . (slow but carefull) + 4 days af Air Campaign . Total : 11-12 Days since beginning of Operation "Sphinx" . Casualties : France : - 1 ASW Frigate (lost to Romeo Sub) - 1 TankerShip (lost to Romeo Sub) - 1 Ro-Ro (lost to Romeo Sub) - 2 Rafales (1 CdG , 1 homeland) - 5 M2000s ( Djibouti , Chad) Egypt : - 2 Romeos (French Subs and ASW) - 4 Patrol Boats (Rafale/Frigates: Exocets) - 8 F16s - 3 M2000s - 19 Mig-21s - 1 E2C Hawkeye Ground : - Assouan South Airbase is non-operational (Tower + Hangars + Ammo dumps = out) - SAMs sites on the Med coast are having a hard time . ******************************************* If you disagree , make up your own casualtie "thing" and we 'll see what we can do ;-) Cheers .
 
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ex-98C    Opening moves    5/19/2005 8:57:45 PM
Not to bad, pretty fair only a couple of quibbles and questions. Navy: I assume your fleet is 800-1000 miles from the Egyptian coast at this point? And did the troop transports sail with it or still in port? Have no problem with the naval casualties that you listed and definitely see the scenarios that would lead to those losses. Air Force: Ok I agree that putting Aswan AB is out of action (runway unusable for 72 hours, tower, fuel park, ammo dump gone, 75% aircraft shelters destroyed) along with 19 Mig-21s for the cost of 5 Mirage 2000s sounds about right. I assume that the 2 Rafales were killed during the attack on the E2C which would also account for the loss of the F-16s. Med SAMS: Here is where I would quibble a bit in that I think you would take losses in wearing down the SAM belt. I was thinking along the lines of 8-10 Mirage 2000s lost for 15-18 SAM batteries out of action (10 SA-2, 3 I-HAWK, 3 SA-6). Sound fair? Anyone else’s thoughts on loss ratios is welcome as well. I would shift a couple of squadrons of F-16s to El Minya to start running sweeps against further attacks from the south (from Fayid).
 
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gf0012-aust    RE:Opening moves    5/19/2005 10:55:11 PM
If I was a patriotic egyptian, I'd be sending in teams to disrupt critical infrastruxture points on the mainland. to whit, I'd be doing a "rainbow warrior" and blowing up french merchant shipping in harbour, blowing up manufacturing infrastructure and starting an internet assault as part of the public dissuasion process. - concurrent to the spear throwing issues.
 
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ex-98C    5th column   5/19/2005 11:07:43 PM
True enough GF, and if I was French I think your (much) earlier campaign strategy would be the most effective. You mentioned blockading Egypt on both side with the navy while launching stand off air strikes at key targets to force the Egyptians to settle. I don’t remember if you mentioned SF raids in addition. Top it off with clandestine monetary and material support to opposition forces and France would have a very good chance at destabilizing Egypt. However it is a lot harder to quantify the potential success and effects of those type operations, too many variables IMO. I'm playing it like both sides are attempting such actions; some are successful, some not. The damage dome while painful is not critical to the outcome.
 
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gf0012-aust    RE:5th column   5/19/2005 11:16:21 PM
"The damage done while painful is not critical to the outcome." to paraphrase from an earlier generation, it's a "triumph of the will" ;) my view of the world is that you create a momentum disconnect by taking the fight to the aggressor wherever feasible. break tempo and they can start to make mistakes. Does egypt have a Reifenstahl equivalent?
 
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Bluewings    RE:Opening moves    5/20/2005 12:18:32 AM
ex-98C , Navy : "I assume your fleet is 800-1000 miles from the Egyptian coast at this point?" Yes . "And did the troop transports sail with it or still in port? " I got Commandos RIMAs on few Ships : 2000 Men. Rest in France waiting ... "Have no problem with the naval casualties that you listed and definitely see the scenarios that would lead to those losses." Thx :-) AirForce : We got it nailed , good . Med SAMs : "8-10 Mirage 2000s lost for 15-18 SAM batteries out of action (10 SA-2, 3 I-HAWK, 3 SA-6)" You rate the Egyptian SAMs very high ... I don 't believe that we could loose that many M2000s to SAMs . Let 's say 4-6 and I 'm happy . Or let 's say that Egypt has VERY good Lads ! ******************************** "I would shift a couple of squadrons of F-16s to El Minya to start running sweeps against further attacks from the south (from Fayid)." Rgr that . I guess they 'll help the Migs ... ************************************************** One question : Shall we play the whole "stuff" or just decide if France can get the Air dominance , and if yes when and after how many losses ? If not , I guess that we have to fight it ;-) Cheers .
 
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