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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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gixxxerking    Psycological Target   5/10/2005 8:28:18 PM
If the EAF/EN can hit a major French warship or two, even Frigates, I think the aura of defeat amplified by the media will compel the French to find diplomatic solutions.
 
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gixxxerking    2009 Egypt   5/10/2005 8:36:41 PM
Could also be a AMRAAM/JDAM/JSOW/F-16 Block 60 user by then as well.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:2009 Egypt   5/10/2005 8:38:35 PM
Also what is the possibility of F-16 co-production?
 
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doggtag    odds are in favor of...   5/10/2005 8:45:55 PM
Egypt. Sorry FS. Seems also here that some may be assuming that any Egyptian anti-shipping strikes will only be targetting surface combatants. Naturally, as these provide the protective umbrella, one would require these be elimintated/disabled early on. But I certainly would have assets in place to counter the amphibious landing forces: LPDs and the like are notoriously underarmed vessels: most vulnerable especially when within an adversary's shore defenses (artillery, missiles, even small arms, mortars, and AFV armament when closing on the beach.) What good are those LeClunks if less than half of them get to shore? And is France anticipating an overall welcome from the general Egyptian population? Even more: is France ready to face whatever retributive strikes and attacks may come from parties sympathetic to the Egyptian plight? Even leaving the US and its associated allies in that region out of the picture, this whole scenario may well end up being France plucking the proverbial apple without realizing the hornets nest within the tree it was rousing. Many terrosist-supportive elements within that area of the world may frown on europeans ("white men") invading their lands, and act accordingly. Is France ready for another Indochina/Vietnam? Is France willing to commit a large prtion of its military stocks to endure a drawn-out occupation to "stabilize" the region, in favor of a more french-favoring government? Certainly, shades of America in Iraq (put the leadership of Egypt is nowhere near as corrupt as Iraq's former government...except maybe in french stratege's eyes?), but France does not have the kind of financial resources necessary to succeed in this endeavor. And would the UN approve, even when the US cried foul? (as France did over Iraq...who just so happened to be an ideal customer.) hmmm....conspiracies! FS, you're not trying to instigate trouble to get back at the US for "disrupting France's economy", are you? (maybe next, "France vs Japan or India", considering those two have recently had an affinity for Boeing-built airliners rather than Airbuses?) heh heh heh ;)
 
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Godofgamblers    gf0012   5/10/2005 8:57:23 PM
there is a large muslim population. but i think it was agreed to strip out diplomatic/domestic issues as that would be pure conjecture AND they cut both ways; FS and BW could easily argue that the egyptian regime would fall upon news of a french attack. the fundamentalists in egypt could welcome muburek being toppled, as he is seen as pro-US and pro-Israel, and rise up to help france. France could make a power sharing agreement with the Muslim Brotherhood before initiating hostilities (tantamount to the US agreeing with Sistani before attacking). what's more, the Islamic population in france, if they are fundamentalist as the article suggests, may welcome a regime change in egypt too and support the move. but it's all conjecture and thus perhaps should have no bearing. don't you think?
 
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Godofgamblers    doggtagg: french landing   5/10/2005 9:01:45 PM
what you forget is that the french can land at a number of places; sinai, along the red sea coast and the med. diversions, decoy landings could be carried out in a number of places. the key issue is whether the french fleet can get to its target without taking too much damage. i'm not well versed in naval matters, so i can't comment. i find it incredible though that the egyptian navy could square off against the french navy in the Med and actually deal death blows to them and prohibit a landing. is the egyptian navy really such a force to be dealt with?
 
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gixxxerking    GoG   5/10/2005 9:02:32 PM
I never agreed to ignore political/diplomatic issues. I always factored them in. Political motivations control the shape of the battlefield. A capsiized Horizon or burning CdG flight deck are important considerations.
 
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gixxxerking    GoG its combined arms   5/10/2005 9:07:12 PM
It will not just be the EN. The EAF and Army will all come out to play. Remember the US is the primary source of arms not 1960's Soviet weapons. Bright Star training and other things make Egypt a decent Army. Actually the most powerful Arab Army. And these weapons are tried and true from GW1 and GW2. If the FN gets close and is unable destroy the EAF then its curtains for the FN. If they fight from stand off how with only 14 Tankers and 1 CVN are they going to overcome US/Soviet Designed IAD from 1000 to 1500nm?
 
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Godofgamblers    RE:GoG   5/10/2005 9:08:03 PM
of course, domestic ones. but is it wise to consider scenarios where israel participates, or germany rushes to france's aid? that would sort of destroy the whole thread, wouldn't it? i thought you and FS wanted this to be strictly Egypt vs. France. correct me if i'm wrong. thx
 
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gixxxerking    RE:GoG   5/10/2005 9:13:26 PM
Yes it is. But If FS blocks the Suez or fires and ICBM or if Egypt Blocks the Suez of detonates a SADM things change. Same for rolling across Libya or Sudan without regard to sovernty. FS started the diplomatic mess. And the US would not stop selling arms to Egypt or honoring contracts on behalf of France. Franch supported Saddam until the bitter end so Why would other nations not do the same. In fact the US supported Egypt vs France once before. Also France and Israel dont exactly like each other. The US is able to do pretty much anything it wishes INSPITE OF HOW other nations feel. Thats a Superpower. If France has these ambitions then it must also deal with real world diplomacy.
 
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