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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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french stratege    Godofgamblers : summary on naval battle   5/9/2005 11:04:05 AM
Godofgamblers : I think that you did not read all posts, so I try to change your opinion: Egypt is maybe able to sink an auxiliary ship or a frigate but would loose a lot of its F16 in this attempt.Gxxx use 100 F16. BTW it is unlikely Egypt receive much more harpoon because Israeli complain saying they can use them as cruise missiles agaisnt Israel. Gxx scenario: -Massive number F16 taking off would be detected by OTH (and maybe humint) -They have to know our precise order of battle before (how?) - We have 26 Rafale on CdG, few on CAP with E2C but other have plenty of time to take off and intercept the raid - in the scenario CdG is within 1250 km range of Corsica and close to greece so benefit of additional FAF CAP. - 30 French plane will shoot down most of F16 (loaded with Harpoons/HARM) before they come in range - Our defense is WELL coordinated (ship supporting each other by datalink and automatic threat priorization) and benefit in 2009 of 176 to 240 ASTER (according composition of task force), plus 390 Crotale VT1 and 800 Mistral missiles.Then CIWS (30mm/100 mm) and jammer/decoys. Moreover Cdg is in center of a 30 ships task force at least: how Harpoons will target precisely the right ship i.e CdG in denses jamming environment?Even they have 120 harpoons it is only 4 harpoons per ship!(at least: we can add fast civilian ships like ro-ro as expendable decoys like Atlantic Conveyor diverted Exocet from UK carriers) and CdG ALONE has 32 aster plus other means! - I don't see damage on CDG, and even an harpoon would hit it, we would have more damage to Egyptian than CdG would have done by bombing. It would remain maybe 110 operational F16 vs 180 before (on a total on 213) and a E2C (if they use it, is likely to be lost). So less F16 targets and threat to the FAF to complete is destruction of Egyptian forces. I hope you don't other estimate now Egyptian threat. For Egyptians, to do premptive attack on Cdg is an hazardous move which can cost them MUCH more than to us and lower Egypt air defense level, opening a free way to FAF.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Godofgamblers : summary on naval battle   5/9/2005 1:57:03 PM
BTW it is unlikely Egypt receive much more harpoon because Israeli complain saying they can use them as cruise missiles agaisnt Israel. ---Wrong. Israel always complains. Business is business. Egypt will continue to recieve Harpoons and by 2009 the will have many more. Gxx scenario: -Massive number F16 taking off would be detected by OTH (and maybe humint) ----So what? You are within 300 to 500 miles of the F-16. You closest Airbase is over 800 miles away. -They have to know our precise order of battle before (how?) ----Egypt has SAT Recon data. Spys posing as fishermen as you pass the narrow Sicily/Tunisia Strait. SSK. Many ways FS C'mon be serious. - We have 26 Rafale on CdG, few on CAP with E2C but other have plenty of time to take off and intercept the raid ----No they dont due to the range of the Harpoon and AS-5. Also there are F-15 to challenge them with 5 to 1 odds or better. - in the scenario CdG is within 1250 km range of Corsica and close to greece so benefit of additional FAF CAP. ----FAF CAP from where? Greece is not in this scenario. You keep adding nations as if they would just blindly allow France to wage war there. Be real and stick to the script. - 30 French plane will shoot down most of F16 (loaded with Harpoons/HARM) before they come in range ----No because there are Escort F-16 with sparrow, the ASM have greater range, multiple axis and you also have to shoot ASM's. Its called Saturation. - Our defense is WELL coordinated (ship supporting each other by datalink and automatic threat priorization) and benefit in 2009 of 176 to 240 ASTER (according composition of task force), plus 390 Crotale VT1 and 800 Mistral missiles.Then CIWS (30mm/100 mm) and jammer/decoys. Moreover Cdg is in center of a 30 ships task force at least: how Harpoons will target precisely the right ship i.e CdG in denses jamming environment?Even they have 120 harpoons it is only 4 harpoons per ship!(at least: we can add fast civilian ships like ro-ro as expendable decoys like Atlantic Conveyor diverted Exocet from UK carriers) and CdG ALONE has 32 aster plus other means! - I don't see damage on CDG, and even an harpoon would hit it, we would have more damage to Egyptian than CdG would have done by bombing. It would remain maybe 110 operational F16 vs 180 before (on a total on 213) and a E2C (if they use it, is likely to be lost). ---oh God FS slow down will you. The Harpoon software has many different means to select a target and it has a very good ECCM suite. You cannot stop 100+ Harpoon AND 48+ AS-5 AND Mig-21 with 250 KG Bomb AND 48+ HARM AND F-16. Thats too much for 2 AAW Frigate with only 48 VLS. The Carrier is quite vulnerable. THose Harm missiles have very little chance of being intercepted and will blind you. the ASM will ravage your ships after HARM shuts down your radar coverage. So less F16 targets and threat to the FAF to complete is destruction of Egyptian forces. I hope you don't other estimate now Egyptian threat. For Egyptians, to do premptive attack on Cdg is an hazardous move which can cost them MUCH more than to us and lower Egypt air defense level, opening a free way to FAF ---No what happened is you have seen GW1, GW2, Serbia and assumed that Egypt would give you time to pre-deploy and prepare for just the right moment. You failed to prepare yourself for pre-emptive attack and you have come to play with too little. You do not have the power to hold of the EAF in the Med near Egypt.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Godofgamblers : summary on naval battle   5/9/2005 2:44:00 PM
OK FS, here is a question for you. What do you think is going to happen when 48+ HARM come screaming in toward your fleet? With a speed of Mach 4+ you do know you will not have a high PK. And look where the Radar Xmitters are on your ships. When those warheads explode the damage to the ship will be extensive and in some cases fatal. And if just one HARM hits an Aster 30 ship you lose 50% of your long range SAM firepower. And with 48 inbound HARMs there is a good chance of losing both. The 800 short range missiles you listed are not all in launchers. Only a fraction of them are available. The Harpoon and AS-5 have to be atritted if you have any chance to hold them off. FS your force is too weak in the AAW arena.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Saudia Arabia   5/9/2005 2:53:43 PM
"Saudia Arabia is in fact more simple than Egypt.In fact Djibouti is closer to Saudia Arabia than Egypt.Only the Red Sae to cross.They have a good number of F15 but we can deal with that.Of course we assume they do not hit Djibouti first (unrealistic as war start by periods of tense then allowing build up of strategic points)."--FS ---First of all FS the USA would never allow France or any other nation to invade Saudi Arabia. So this mission could not happen and would not happen in a political vacuum. Second a competent Saudi defense would strike you first rather than allow you to get everything just right. Third Saudi Arabia can directly bomb Paris with DF-3 missiles. Fourth you will be facing F-15s which nullify any superiority in a2a warfare. Fifth, every Islamic nation in the region would form against you. Six, ther rest of the world would form against you due to oil dependency. Sixth, the Saudi military is able to hold in the defense against France. FS how could you ever, ever even dream of taking the Saudis on. Perhaps you should learn from the Egypt scenario about why Saudi Arabia is even more difficult for you.
 
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JIMF    RE:French Stratege   5/9/2005 3:34:00 PM
Friendly allied advice. Stick with the Arabs, the Australians, even with only a hundred aircraft, would be much more difficult, just ask the Japanese.
 
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french stratege    gxxx bad faith?   5/9/2005 3:46:27 PM
On scenarios we are speaking a country vs another countries.Not on political issues and alliances, neither France vs all the world. On naval issues: -Harpoons is 60 miles.So well the launch is well in range of E2C detection and Rafale will have intercepted F16 200 miles before, -you forget conveniently 390 Crotale NG and 800 mistral well able to intercept an harpoon (+CIWS etc.) - heavy jamming: even Harpoon has good ECCM heavy jamming reduce efficiency - on Grece: we have the right to stay in international waters and os CdG is always 700 miles awy from nearest point of Egypt! - You fail to answer on premature F16 detection by OTH or our FAF support! - HARM are mach 2 and 48 km range: can be intercepted by Aster and even CIWS (no evasive) and planes will be in range of missiles if not destroyed before by rafale. SUCH AN ATTACK WILL NOT SUCCEED UNLESS SUICIDAL but then we have destroyed one third of Egypt F16 at a reasonable cost.
 
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french stratege    Harm efficency on a fleet   5/9/2005 3:49:57 PM
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/smart/agm-88.htm Read about efficiency in dense emitter environement Moreover radar can be shut down and a ship is moving! So Harm will not hit the radar directly even with inertial end flight guidance of HARM evoved versions. Admit it: you lost on naval issues!
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Harm efficency on a fleet   5/9/2005 4:13:25 PM
On scenarios we are speaking a country vs another countries.Not on political issues and alliances, neither France vs all the world. ----OK then why are you using Chad, Djibouti violating Lybia, Sudan or Eritria? Because you have to. In a vacuum it would not be possible to invade Egypt because your only option in amphibious assault and you do not have the firepower to do this. And if there are no politics involed you could just nuke Egypt. Very unrealistic. Is the French military better than the Egyptian military, Probably. If the French Military able to project its power and invade Egypt, Probably not. Fact. On naval issues: -Harpoons is 60 miles.So well the launch is well in range of E2C detection and Rafale will have intercepted F16 200 miles before, ---Rafale are also intercepted by F-16/Sparrow in greater numbers during ASM attack. Explain your targeting priority. The Low altitude Harpoon and High altitude AS-5 mixed with Preceeded by HARM mixed in with Fighters. You Fighters are overwhelmed here FS. Enough of everything gets through to kill your fleet. -you forget conveniently 390 Crotale NG and 800 mistral well able to intercept an harpoon (+CIWS etc.) ---No I didnt forget. These systems are good at single missile some of the time. See Falklands and U.S.S. Stark. BUt they cannot handle massed attacks. And you fail to realize those missiles are not all ready to fire. - heavy jamming: even Harpoon has good ECCM heavy jamming reduce efficiency ---I know jamming reduces efficiency. Thats why I send so many. - on Grece: we have the right to stay in international waters and os CdG is always 700 miles awy from nearest point of Egypt! ---That far away the CdG is not threat to Egypt so mission accomplished. Just the threat of the EAF keeps you that far away which means deterence. The naval battle is won without firing a shot. Just as the Argentines knew to keep their CV away due to SSN/SSK and Harrier threat you know to keep the CdG away. Very good. No Offensive operations of any significance are possible this far away. - You fail to answer on premature F16 detection by OTH or our FAF support! ---FS the Egyptians could call you on the phone and tell you the F-16s are comming. Suprise is good but not necessary because of huge numerical superiority and inability of France to support CdG that far away. So you will launch 30 Fighter from CdG. Hardly enough. And vs 100+ Fighters you will be luck if 10 return. And Egypt has enough in RESERVE, key word, to send second wave. Now you are down to less than 10 fighters, no Asters and land bases FAF out of position to assist. Choose your poison. - HARM are mach 2 and 48 km range: can be intercepted by Aster and even CIWS (no evasive) and planes will be in range of missiles if not destroyed before by rafale. ---Wrong on speed and Range. Also the HARM will be gone off the rail long before a MICA could reach the offending F-16. Technically a wasted missile. And the PK vs HARM is very low for CIWS or Aster. SUCH AN ATTACK WILL NOT SUCCEED UNLESS SUICIDAL but then we have destroyed one third of Egypt F16 at a reasonable cost. ---I would gladly trade 1/3 F-16, 60 to 80, for CdG and French Fleet. F-16 is easily replace. CdG is not. Also remember after you are finished chasing F-16, HARM, Harpoon, AS-6. You still have Mig-21 or F-4 with conventional bombs and PGMs to deal with. A strike of this magnitude will cause heavy losses. And your Aster magazines will be empty. Above 20000ft you have no means to hit Fighter-Bombers who can dive bomb, loft bomb, high altitude bomb or use PGM against the fleet below. Imagine a Paveway or MK83 hitting a ship!
 
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Bluewings    RE:Gixxx : summary on naval battle   5/9/2005 4:18:48 PM
Few points worth remembering : As I said the Egyptian Navy is no threat . Only theirs Subs are a bit of a worry , but very little . Why ? Someone came up with "The Med Sea is noisy" , I am not going to debate how noisy the Med Sea is but if it is , it works both ways . It is as noisy for Egypt as it is for France . Someone came up with something like "The Brits could not find Argies Subs during the Falklands" . True enough but it NEVER stopped UK to land ... Now , the Brits did NOT have 20+ Ships FULLY dedicated to Anti-Submarines Warfare as we have in the Med in 2009 , and secondly comparing ASW Technology from late 70s ~Falklands -->1982~ with 2000 technology is like comparing P51s-Mustang with Crusaders . Moreover , I take an Argentine Sub crew over an Egyptian one any day . Basically , Egyptian Subs are no threat for the FN . Gixxx , you seem to believe that ASTER 30 is SAM system only , and that is wrong . ASTER 30 's range is 100km btw . Egyptian Fighters launching within OR out of range of ASTER doesn 't make any difference AT ALL . Harpoons and Sea-Skimmers will be intercepted and destroyed anyway by ASTER 15/30 the same way that they would be destroyed by US AEGIS . Moreover , you talk about 2 (two) Horizon Frigates like if it was all we 've got . Wrong again . We have many Ships equipped with ASTER , and installing thoses batteries on Lafayette Class ~as I did~ takes a month work . So you can forget about "saturation" . One more detail : for Harpoon to be launch , your F16 has to be at less than 120nm because the model sold to Egypt is the "Harpoon Block II" ~AGM-84L variant . At that distance , you are not only be within Rafale 's Radar range , but within our first Anti-Air Stealth Frigates . Ouch ... Do you really think that CdG will sail AHEAD of the Fleet ?? Your Fighters will be fighting us WAAAY before to even get a blip at CdG . Gixxx , you did NOT win any argument ~as you claim~ . In fact your plan goes straight in the water by coming at us . You 'll better follow FS 's advice and keep your AF for Land defense . ****************************************** The Med Sea thing is over . Back to Landing and invasion ... Cheers .
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Harm efficency on a fleet   5/9/2005 4:19:51 PM
FS are you serious? If the HARM strike is only 10% efficient it will blind you! If you shut down emmiters then mission also accomplished! Hell I dont care if a single HARM fails to hit if youo shut down your radar! The Harpoons and AS-6 will home in unmolested! Do you see how perilous your situation is? Give up man you are outclassed and its obvious.
 
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