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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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Bluewings    RE:Reality Check/FN in the Med   5/7/2005 9:13:48 AM
Gixxx , be realistic . Your plan does not work ! I have to repeat again (becomes tiring...) 1) I said MUCH earlier on that the Fleet is under constant CAP watch (AWACS , Rafales , M2000-5s) 2) Hunting party (at least the surface Ships) is 150nm ahead of Battle Group and never closer that 300-350nm from Egypt . We 'll see you coming and we 'll have plenty of time to intercept ! As FS said , Naval issues ended . Cheers .
 
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french stratege    Asw   5/7/2005 9:37:16 AM
The scenario is about 2009, so we have to correct force assessment. Until we have at least two horizon (2008), I would not bring CdG to close of Egypt until FAF have destroyed enought F16. So for 2009 with 28 Rafale F1/F3 on CdG and 3E2C plus at least 176 Aster our force are enough to crush any Egyptian incoming raid. OTH and E2C are giving enough warning time to get 24 Rafale in air (plus maybe FAF CAP) and crushing this raid well before their AS missiles are launched.The only result for Egyptian would be 50 F16 losses at least simplifying our task as next FAF/Cdg strikes will have to destroy 160 F16 only instead of 213. There is no reason to separate ASW surface force from CdG.Our force are one SSK, 6 SSN. 1 subs in maintenance maybe so we have 6 subs.Separate hunting will be deserved to 4 SSN/SSK and 28 Atlantic 2. 2 SSN plus full strengh in ASW frigates to escort CdG. I don't see any reason to get Cdg cruising west of Creta or in Northern Aegean sea until the French first main strike on Egypt.No Egyptian preemptive strike on CdG to fear either by ASW or air. More over I rememember you that Europe NATO network is integrated and we will have data from Italian and Greece networks.
 
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Bluewings    RE:Asw   5/7/2005 9:44:28 AM
Quote : "I don't see any reason to get Cdg cruising west of Creta or in Northern Aegean sea until the French first main strike on Egypt"- FS Rgr that FS (but we had little to fear anyway). Cheers .
 
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french stratege    RE:Asw again a writing mistake   5/7/2005 10:51:31 AM
"I don't see any reason to get Cdg cruising west of Creta or in Northern Aegean sea until the French first main strike on Egypt." I fact i wanted to say: I don't see any reason to NOT get Cdg cruising west of Creta or in Northern Aegean sea until the French first main strike on Egypt. I mean CdG north west of Creta, north of Creta then north of Aegean sea would have nothing to fear.Of course we have to put it here to get it contributing to the French first strike with 12 Rafale (air refueled by supertendard) to shoot Egypt E2C with FAF Rafale from chad and Djibouti.
 
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ex-98C    Logistics IS an Issue   5/7/2005 12:59:43 PM
Let’s do a little comparison of the info that FA provided on VII corps versus Stratege’s French invasion force: VII Corps: 150,000 men, 1580 Tanks, 1500 IFVs/APCs, 670 Arty, 223 attack Helos French: 150,000 men, 500 Tanks, 3000 Recon/APCs, 600 Arty, 500+ Helos So what does this tell us? It certainly looks to me like the supply requirements for the two forces are a lot closer than Stratege believes. Yes the US Corps has more tanks and a few more Arty pieces, but the French have more APCs and helicopters. Now this is not an exhaustive list of equipment for either force, and the French vehicles do tend to be lighter, but to think that VII corps required 400% more supplies than then French would is not realistic. If the VII corps required 40,000 tons of supplies a day, then the French forces IMHO would require at least 25,000 tons. Chad: I’m amazed that Stratege so blithely waves off the problems inherent in supporting a major attack from Chad. Let us examine the route that the forces and supplies must flow to be in position. To Dakar from France is at least a week by sea, and once unloaded its over 2000 miles to the Lake Chad/N’Djamena area. Stratege said that it’s no problem to move the supplies by rail, road or air. The problem is there is no rail connection from Dakar to N’Djamena, and the road network is pretty treacherous. It would be interesting to see how many vehicles actually made it to Chad if you tried to run them by those roads, so that leaves air transport. The French have a mix of about 50 available during the build up (though the number drops when almost half of the Transalls are pulled off for refueling duty). Flying supplies to Chad from Dakar means a max of three flights per plane every two days. So for your three month build up it’s a week to Dakar, a week for transporting the units to Chad, so that leaves 10 for supply flights which come out to 84,000 tons. Now the Troops had to gets there at least a month before the kick off of the attack, and they need to eat something so at the best your supply stockpile in Chad is 50,000 tons by the time the war is supposed to kickoff. This is about 2 weeks of supplies for the ground forces under combat operations (assuming that the Chad force consumes 20% of the total ground force allotment). Not to mention the fact that N’Djamena is about 1000 miles away from the Egyptian border. The closest possible base for your operation is Faya-Largeau which if you go direct adds 600 miles round trip to your cargo flights, or you have to worry about moving supplies from N’Djamena to there by truck. Even Faya is almost 600 miles from the Egyptian border, so how are you going to supply the troops once they get there? No Roads, the movement of supplies by truck over 600 miles of road less desert isn’t practical. Air drop? The France have maybe 30 available transports at this point. If each could carry 50 tons a day that’s still only 1500 tones, about a third of the requirement. Another problem is supplying the FAF in Chad. I was using all available transport to build up the ground forces, but the FAF in Chad is going to go through at least 2000 tons of supplies a day. If we take it out of stockpile of supplies then there are only about enough supplies for a week of combat. So there are several major logistical issues facing any attack from Chad. 1)Having enough supplies on hand for the forces deployed. 2)Moving supplies from the staging point in Chad to the forward forces, which would about 1000 miles from Faya-Largeau by the time they encountered anything worthwhile. 3)Bringing in more supplies. Once the attack starts the transportation units have the almost impossible task of supply the fighting units. That means that there is nothing available to bring in new supplies to supplement the stockpile. So it looks to me like the attack from Chad leaves a significant French force operating in a strategically worthless area, at the end of a very tenuous supply line, without support
 
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gixxxerking    Firepower IS an Issue   5/7/2005 2:10:18 PM
There is also a firepower issue. Even with FAF CAP which must be rotated after less than 30 min and they will number MAX 8-14 with help from CdG. The ASW hunting party is not able to fight off heavy missile attack. And unlike you BW, I planned on a CAP being present. Go look at the numbers. Overwhelming! If I wanted I could send 96 Vipers On a Sweep. No way you can stand the EAF this far from home!
 
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Shooter    RE:Reality Check/FN in the Med   5/7/2005 3:53:03 PM
Gixxx, GREAT POST PRIOR! I think your plane is terrific, but your estimates of effect are way to low! The 32 Ruski missiles may not get more than 2~4 ships, but the harm will get every transmitter on the air and if done first, the 32 Kitchens? take out most of the available targets, particuarly if the come close enough to designate indavidual targets. Then they get ALL the aready partialy damaged ships! ">Gixxx , be realistic . Your plan does not work ! <" It is you Bluewings who needs to get realistic! His plan sounds great to me and we already know the efficay of the missiles in question! ">I have to repeat again (becomes tiring...) 1) I said MUCH earlier on that the Fleet is under constant CAP watch (AWACS , Rafales , M2000-5s)<" Have you even LOOKED at a map of the region? Just how are such short ranged planes going to provide CAP so far from their basses? (A ~2,000Km RADIUS of action?) This all comes back to the small size and concequently short legs on the planes mentioned! Don't even TRY to justify such a long range mission with Mid Air Refueling, since the OIL TANKS on both planes are far to small to maintain that range! ( They can top off the fuel, but can't add oil!) ">2) Hunting party (at least the surface Ships) is 150nm ahead of Battle Group and never closer that 300-350nm from Egypt . We 'll see you coming and we 'll have plenty of time to intercept !<" Again, with what? Take off from a carrier requires FULL AFTERBURNER! this precludes ANY kind of mission from 150NMi behind! You need to study your real world flight dynamics! The true radius of action is only about 125 miles without drop tanks and the French carrier is too small to launch the Rafale at anything close to the land based MTO! Therefore, the Air you need to live is not AVAILABLE! ">As FS said , Naval issues ended . Cheers . <" NOT QUITE! THe Rubis class of subs are very noisy! On a class with OLDER RUSKI BOATS! They would stand little chance in an "ADVANCE ON OBJECTIVE" type opperation. Even counting there several sets of refits and upgrades, they are no match for SSKs laying in wait! Even given the poor state of Egiption boats, crews, and weapons, the meer threat of intervention in Mediterainian waters would preclude French action there! This whole debate is based on the "PERCIEVED QUALITY" of French products! Does any one out there actualy own a French car, IF THEY COULD AFFORD ANYTHING ELSE? Even Fiats out sell Citroens in France! (At least according to the last data I saw on-line! In addition, the largest selling car in France is either a Mercedies or Toyota!) Get real! French products look good on paper, but fail miserably in the real WORLD!
 
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french stratege    Ex98c   5/7/2005 4:22:30 PM
http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/egypt.pdf http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/chadfr.pdf http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/sudan.pdf http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/libya.pdf Good free map on UN site. Ex 98c: you post is good regarding questions logistic issue and I will answer you. Our force reached 150000 men including chad and Djibouti so less on Egyptian soil and in fact they are more reduced than these numbers. Short answer on rail car : there is railway to Maidugari in Nigeria close to N'Djamena (oil supplies), and from Douala to Ngaoundéré (Cameroun).Good road from Douala, Bangui, N'Djamena.Can also use road from Dakar to N'Djamena via Ougadougou and Niamey.Road exist from chad to Egypt and I remember you that Leclerc Free French motorized column went from N'Dajamena to Tobruk via Kuffra in WW2.Today infrastructure and equipment are better. However I recongnised after reffining my calculation I was short of 20% for logistic weight I answer in detail way later. Shooter: you are a poor guy: our automaker produce 7,5 million vehicule a year and we are first exporter in Germany which is the most exigeant market where Renault AND Peugeot rank above Opel and Ford in quality. Your range estimate on plane are absurd: France bombed Afganistan from Cdg in 2003!!A Rafale can take off at 25 tons from CdG. You are a French hater who fell in absurdity.
 
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Shooter    RE:Firepower IS an Issue   5/7/2005 4:25:55 PM
Another great post by EX-98C! By the way did I ever ask if you were ex-ASA? Sounds like the type of clear thinking they liked! ">There is no reason to separate ASW surface force from CdG.Our force are one SSK, 6 SSN.<" Since the French have been COSISTANTLY unable to keep four SSNs out of dock at the same time for twenty years, I dought that the could do more than five for this opp! Secondly SSKs are DEFENSIVE boats and are little more than targets in the type of ADVANCING OP you postulate! While the defending SSKs can kill the noisy Rubis class boats with ease, well maby harder for the ex-ruski boats in the EN. I can't remember if they have any type 209s. If so the French navy never leaves port untill all are well and truely accounted for by other ASW assets! Those ASW HK groups must opperate with out air cover and ARE THEREFORE SUBJECT TO air attack! The French forces have huge, REALLY HUMONGIOUS problems with power projection. ">1 subs in maintenance maybe so we have 6 subs.Separate hunting will be deserved to 4 SSN/SSK and 28 Atlantic 2.<" See above! The 28 Atlantic2's have large maintanence problems too. You would be lucky to get more than 19 off the ground at the same time. Don't you read the papers? How long are the going to last without air cover? ">2 SSN plus full strengh in ASW frigates to escort CdG.<" What happens when your precious CdG takes its first torpedo, because the SSNs are to loud to hunt SSKs while moving with the carrier! This is surely the MOST -A-MAIMY IDEA that I have heard in twenty years! ">I don't see any reason to get Cdg cruising west of Creta or in Northern Aegean sea until the French first main strike on Egypt.No Egyptian preemptive strike on CdG to fear either by ASW or air.<" Just how are they supposed to do this when France does not have any real ASW force? In addition, the very short range of French CV bourn air power precludes stand off out of BADGER/MISSILE range! Further more, the F-16 with tanks and a single HARPOON has more range than Rafale! By a significant margine. Harpoon is a proven ship killer in its own right. Unlike Exocet that requires the cooperation of the target burning to sink ships. ">More over I rememember you that Europe NATO network is integrated and we will have data from Italian and Greece networks. <" Why would NATO cooperate with France in a war of agression any more than they did with any of the other crissesses in Africa? But how does this data you need desperstely help you get forces into possition in the face of armed resistance? CdG sinks when torpedoed or Harpooned from Egiption subs, The 28 Rafales on board sink too. The resulting naval units die from Badger/missile attack and irt does not matter which happens first.
 
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french stratege    distance   5/7/2005 4:30:54 PM
http://www.lexilogos.com/calcul_distances.htm Calculation show that Abeché air base in Chad is about 1310 km to Al Minya in Egypt.Even refueling is lighter than I thought from Chad.
 
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