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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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french stratege    Ammunitions   5/5/2005 9:00:49 PM
Frankly with 400 cruise missiles, 3500 AASM, 10000 LGB, more than ten thousand of cluster bombs and 4000 bonus SMART shell, 7000 Mistral, 4000 AtoA missiles (magic 2, S530D, mica), and thousands of other ground to air (Crotale, Roland3, Hawk pip, Aster), Tenth of thousand modern AT ammunitions (Hot2, Milan 3, Eryx, Aoilas, DU depleted APFSDS shells etc..) I guess we have some amnunitions even if 10% hit their target. Last 2005 budget shows that we spend 20 % of US budget of amunitions in conventional amunitions .Without mentioning our surge capacity procurement. We could spend more than half of what US spend in FIRST gulf war (110 000 ordnance dumb or smart ,in bombing)!!!
 
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french stratege    RE:Ammunitions typo error   5/5/2005 9:03:07 PM
Read : TENTHS of thousand modern AT ammunitions (Hot2, Milan 3, Eryx, Apilas, DU depleted APFSDS shells etc..) and probably more than 100 000.
 
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Godofgamblers    RE: FAF over the Fleet / GoG AUSSIEENGINEER   5/5/2005 9:16:38 PM
yes, sorry mate, must have mixed up the names. you're right: 150,000 is probably not enough to occupy and subdue egypt if the population is restive. however, i'm not sure that's the goal of the exercise. conquering egypt is the name of the game: even the german army couldn't subdue yugoslavia during WWII. let's assume a victory such as in GW1, where the enemy army is crushed in a decisive confrontation: a lengthy occupation is not necessary. i think ceding a couple military bases to france would be an acceptable concession :)
 
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gixxxerking    RE:BW   5/5/2005 9:27:27 PM
"Frankly, do you think that 4 Romeo Egyptian subs have a chance agaisnt 10 dedicated ASW frigates with an outstanding ASW equipment (active LF, towed VLF active AND powed passive recently updated, murene torpedoes, 2 Lynx ASW), 28 ATlantic NG 2 (which have won NATO ASW contest at least one time against US and UK), 6 good SSN, a good SSK (at least use for training but operational) a total of 38 Lynx ASW, 500 Murene torpedoes and our experience in ASW warfare in med ????" --FS Yes I do. And it will not be 4. It will be 8 because Egypt will reactive just as you are doing. Wow, FS, you really like things one sided dont you. And those Romeos have modern internals and weapons now. And it doesnt matter as your force has no depth. YOu cant afford to lose a single ship! And Egypt has just as much Med experience as you do. For you to France to win, you have to be successful EVERY time. Egypt only has to succeed once. Ask yourself how is it that the Stark or Sheffield were hit/lost to third rate airforces while under the most sofisticated protection of the time. You dont have the power to do what you propose. Not in the air, sea and especially not on land. AT BEST, you could conduct a punitive air raid on some Egyptian target. Other than that you are powerless vs Egypt IF the objective is to invade. Please accept this and lets move on to debate other nations because you cannot win. Perhaps now is time to revise and remove Egypt and Saudi Arabia from your list of nations you can crush. Lets establish a fact. FRANCE CAN OPERATE NO VESSEL IN THE RED SEA OR MED SEA EAST OF CRETE WITHOUT EGYPTIAN APPROVAL.
 
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TXAggie93    France does not have the enough support troops to pull this off Logistics is the key   5/5/2005 9:28:43 PM
I sorry guys but I do not see how France can do any real land envasion. Whats the fuel milage on French tank FS? So out of that 150K how many are combat and how many are support? Convice me that you can support a 200 to 300 mile push into Egypt. FS you say your land attach is coming from Chad but the maps I have see do not show many if any realy good roads from Chad.
 
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Bluewings    RE:BW   5/5/2005 9:38:29 PM
Gixx , you don 't get it do you ? Could you please read me more carefully ? Egypt CANNOT do anything against the French Fleet in the scenario . I repeat the process : 1) Our Subs clear the pass Tunisia/Sicily , then move slowly East ... 2) The French Fleet sail from South French coast/Corsica through the pass , then setup mobile where I indicated before : 150-200nm West of Crete . 3) FAF on CAP as we discussed before . Egypt cannot counter that , unless one way kamikaze missions in the blind . We agreed on this . If Egypt wants to sent Her Navy in the Med looking for us , that 's good . We 'll deal with it first :-) Basically , France can move the Navy from our coasts to where I said safely . Cheers .
 
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Godofgamblers    my decision: france could win ... if...   5/5/2005 9:40:47 PM
having read all the comments in this thread, i believe France can pull it off, though with losses, as gixx has pointed out. whether or not these losses are acceptable politically is another matter. that is up to the politicians. here is a sobering note from wikpedia: "The United States military is unique in the amount of power it can project globally. Although France and the United Kingdom are capable of projecting limited amounts of power overseas, the United States military is the only military capable of fighting a major regional war at a distance from its homeland." ok, but egypt is very close to france and within its sphere of power projection. as aussieengineer has pointed out, france does not have enough troops to occupy egypt: however, france can EASILY choke, blockade and strike egypt with virutal impunity, thus winning any confrontation. as a famous politician once said, "a great empire must be ready to take losses". whether france would be willing to is a matter which we are not discussing here. the fact is that france COULD win this confrontation.
 
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Bluewings    RE:BW   5/5/2005 9:54:14 PM
You say ~ I quote : "Non TU-16 aircraft can engage FN from 200 miles east of Malta to Egypt" How ?! one way kamikaze mission in the blind ? against 20 Rafales (CdG) , 20 more FAF Rafales (CAP over the Fleet) and quite few M2000-5 ? And with what Aircratfs ? what fuel ? What intels ? Then you said ~ I quote : "Only you and FS think the FN has any chance in the Med vs Egypt" No , only a ignorant would say Egypt can stop the FN . What with ??! As I said TWICE before , the Fleet has moved 150-200 West of Crete and there is nothing Egypt can do about it . Cheers .
 
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gixxxerking    RE:my decision: france could not win even if...   5/5/2005 10:00:06 PM
Look folks. This is not a question of blockades or limited strikes. FS clearly stated France could invade and occupy Egypt. ALL reasonable agree this not possible. First the French military would be horribly mauled in this affair. Second the logistics do not allow for type of MASS france needs to overwhelme Egypt which has a sophisticated military and large man power. Now west of Malta or South of the Red Sea, Egypt has insignificant military power and little ability to conduct conventional military operations against France. It is not even a question of if France was willing to take the casualties. Egypt would destroy a land invasion the size of what France is capable of. KEY PHRASE, "capable of". The logistics and distance make this impossible. Its always sobering to find out what you cannot do. Unless you learn from it. France should be buying KC-10, CdG II, Ro/Ro, C-17 along with a trippling of the Defense budget for a decade or so. Then they could play super power. But not until then is it possible to say France is second. Better to say what France is capable of rather than make equipment list. FYI- The USA without its massive logistical system, CVNs and natural defense of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, would not be a superpower.
 
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gixxxerking    Bluewings --Challenge to you.   5/5/2005 10:05:42 PM
You are good at rhetoric. Bad at supporting your convictions. TO you, saying something cant happen makes you right. To the rest of us, you must prove this. Now once and for all prove yourself. It is easy. The Challenge is: Prove that, "Egypt CAN DO NOTHING ABOUT THE FN 150 nm west of Crete", as you claimed. I will prove you wrong. The fight is on, IF you can.
 
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