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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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Heorot    RE:Gxxx!   5/5/2005 3:03:30 PM
"No COMPETENT defense is just going to "allow" you to get everything ready. " Very good Gixx. So you did learn something from the US v UK thread then. Keep it up and you may even admit that you are wrong sometimes; the sign of a true adult!
 
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french stratege    no target for Egypt   5/5/2005 3:08:47 PM
1 French forces are out of reach during build up.So Egypt is unable to attack first (except by terrorism which is unlikely) like Saddam in Gulf war did not attack first while unless Egypt he could have done that (Iraq was in range). 2 Egypt would be designated clearly as agressor. Of course if it was possible , it would make sense to do a premptive attack but they can not. Now you move on Chad issue after losing on naval issue.There is years that French routinely "violate" Sudanese (Darfour) or Lybian borders (we still protect Chad from Lybia). So nothing to fear of basing French forces in Chad.Once Egyptian air force is beaten, do you think Lybian and Sudanese would complain? Even boundaries of frontier between Chad, Lybia and Sudan are not well defined (reason of eighties small war with Lybia) and there is no military forces in this part of desert.Our forces will cross Lybian strip in few hours before entering to Egypt and Lybian would say nothing.Even their public opinion complain (LOL), their governement would say that French must have been go threw Sudan.And Sudanases gov will deny.And what? Even in case of a protestation motion in UNO we would put our veto. And Lybian during years of confrontation with France in Chad in the eighties, have been proven unable to fight in its south desert.We broke them with 10 000 men and a wing of aircraft!So I guess that they would do nothing agaisnt a 30 000 men corps and 4 wing of aircraft especially since we do not cross their border.When we will do it we will be already in Egypt before they react. We still have memory agaisnt Lybia and they would be please to do nothing.Moreover Quadaffi and Lybian hate Egypt. And with the presence of a French corps in Chad, Egypt has to take that in account. After all this part is still a little a part of our "African empire".
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Gxxx! -Heorot   5/5/2005 4:30:13 PM
Exactly. And compare FS force disposition to mine. I in detailed how I was prepared for a pre-emptive attack. to the point of detailing naval and air escorts all the way to the line of departure. Any EU attack at that distance would have been clearly in my favor as I chose to remain in open ocean and used land based air from forward US base. But I already won that debate. Start a new thread and make your case if you disagree. I will be happy to show you who will win. Or simply read through the thread where over time, all but the must ideologically biased agreed that the US would win. For you reference: http://www.strategypage.com/messageboards/messages/30-36503.asp
 
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Bluewings    RE:Naval issues: you are wrong gxxx!   5/5/2005 4:39:31 PM
Quote : "First I said that hostilities will not be engaged before France get ready."-FS Absolutly correct . 1) Egypt has no means to know where the CdG BG is , unless they risk their Subs and start to chase shadows from Egypt to Corsica . They ' ll have to split their Sub Force to find CdG which means that they can 't do a mass attack . An Egyptian Sub alone spotting CdG BG is almost a Zero threat against French ASW , and it has to go through our own Subs undetected first ... Quote : "How many subs normally operate in Med? French, Italian, Israeli, Egyption, Greek, Turkish, US, Spain(?), Algerian, Brits, Russian(?), Syrian(?);anyone else?" - ret13f We said nobody is helping anyone . In this scenario , I believe that Non-French Subs would have to be VERY carefull as no-one is going to risk to be sunk ~or to create a HUGE diplomatic incident~ by clashing with the French Fleet . Let 's put that aside to keep things simple shall we ? 2) Egypt cannot do anything against the build-up in Djibouti and Chad , unless one way kamikaze missions . So what FS said is valid . France will attack when She decides to do so . In fact , France could well choose to do what has been done in GW1 and hammer Egypt with Air strikes for 1-2 months , taking the EAF on , C4s , Habor facilities , Airbases , etc ... But I don 't think we need to . A 2 weeks Air Campaign would attrit the EAF badly enough to gain Air Superiority . France has the capability to gain Air Superiority over the RAF or Luftwaffe , so Egypt ... But as I said before , Egypt would have to deal at the same time with literally dozens of French Commandos Ops tasked to disturb , disrupt and distract at key points on her own soil . Radar Towers would go down , Ships in Harbor would suddently sink ~Greenpeace rings a bell~ , Bridges would collapse and some ammo dump would blow off . Trust me on that as I know what I 'm talking about ON THIS ONE . My personal estimate is that after 3 weeks top , France own the Egytian sky ~at least at high altitude . Cheers .
 
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french stratege    RE:How rank France in world power?   5/5/2005 6:36:54 PM
It is funny gxxx, you critized Chad using while you suggested crossing Syria in your EU-US scenario. BTW Egypt seems to be deprived of Amraam and it is a big weakeness even we can think they would receive some AM120 C until 2009. Rafale is currently in production at 19/year.126 already ordered as 1800 mica. Even we could not use Chad for a land attack (unlikely) we could still use it for commando operations or limited surprised strike. BTW it is a question of time: once France agin total air superiority , we can bomb as much we want util Egyptian force are unable to move .
 
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ret13f    RE:BW   5/5/2005 7:11:01 PM
I wasn't trying to imply that these other naval forces were helping either side. the point is that they are there, and as no hostilities are ongoing they all have freedom of navigation, this includes air operations also. so you have to determine what and who is out there. It was said that if Egyptians struck first that the world would see and comdemn, but isn't that what you are expecting the french to do,,and while egypt sits idly waiting to absorb that first blow. all this build up is going to be seen, by lots of different military and civilian assets. seems that hiding a task force in the med would be very hard, unless you are going to close it down, which you will not be able to do. so i stand by my suggestion, either absorb the first attack or iniate before you are ready.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:BW   5/5/2005 7:35:13 PM
Bluewings, FS and ret13f all deserve a response but I am quite busy with work! Stay tuned please. Freakin modulator!!!!! #$%$&#!!!!
 
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gixxxerking    RE:BW   5/5/2005 8:31:53 PM
To Bluewings: 1 French forces are out of reach during build up.So Egypt is unable to attack first (except by terrorism which is unlikely) like Saddam in Gulf war did not attack first while unless Egypt he could have done that (Iraq was in range). ---Support your arguement with fact please. A quick look at the map shows that you are in range at least from the strait between Sicily and Tunisia, where SSK will shoot any Amphibious force, to the Egypt coast. Non TU-16 aircraft can engage FN from 200 miles east of Malta to Egypt. HUMINT/SIGINT/ELINT would reveal any major naval units moving East in the med. So there is much opportunity to attack and destroy a naval task force near Crete. And why should Egypt make Saddams mistake when he showed the consequence of such actions so clearly? 2 Egypt would be designated clearly as agressor. Of course if it was possible , it would make sense to do a premptive attack but they can not. ---Why not? See above. And no Egypt is not the clear aggressor. You are the one invading a sovern nation. Now you move on Chad issue after losing on naval issue.There is years that French routinely "violate" Sudanese (Darfour) or Lybian borders (we still protect Chad from Lybia). ---I have lost nothing. Only you and FS think the FN has any chance in the Med vs Egypt. But I do not care for popular opinion. Facts clearly show Egypt is capable of defending herself in the Med from Amphibious landing. So nothing to fear of basing French forces in Chad.Once Egyptian air force is beaten, do you think Lybian and Sudanese would complain? Even boundaries of frontier between Chad, Lybia and Sudan are not well defined (reason of eighties small war with Lybia) and there is no military forces in this part of desert.Our forces will cross Lybian strip in few hours before entering to Egypt and Lybian would say nothing.Even their public opinion complain (LOL), their governement would say that French must have been go threw Sudan.And Sudanases gov will deny.And what? ---Baseless claims of French Bravado. Besides a quick look will show this to be a 200 mile territorial violation. Good luck if you think you will achieve suprise or not generate a response. Also at about 200 to 250 miles, you will need significant logistical support to refuel your armor. Very good opportunity to use AH-64 and MLRS to interdict you. And the best part is Egypt can do this under its SAM umbrella. Even in case of a protestation motion in UNO we would put our veto. And Lybian during years of confrontation with France in Chad in the eighties, have been proven unable to fight in its south desert.We broke them with 10 000 men and a wing of aircraft!So I guess that they would do nothing agaisnt a 30 000 men corps and 4 wing of aircraft especially since we do not cross their border.When we will do it we will be already in Egypt before they react. ---After a 3 month buildup! dont make me laugh. You will be sealing your own doom with this action. You will have to secure your rear and flank vs Egypt with CAP and Cavalry! You dont even have the logistics to invade Egypt! And now you add the task of holding Lybia! Wow this is getting so much better. We still have memory agaisnt Lybia and they would be please to do nothing.Moreover Quadaffi and Lybian hate Egypt. And with the presence of a French corps in Chad, Egypt has to take that in account. After all this part is still a little a part of our "African empire". ---Remember your comment about how you helped Chad vs Lybia. What a sweet opportunity for payback. Now all of Lybia intel and even covert military aid will go to Egypt since you have no regard for their sovernty. ========================================== To FS: It is funny gxxx, you critized Chad using while you suggested crossing Syria in your EU-US scenario. BTW Egypt seems to be deprived of Amraam and it is a big weakeness even we can think they would receive some AM120 C until 2009. Rafale is currently in production at 19/year.126 already ordered as 1800 mica. Even we could not use Chad for a land attack (unlikely) we could still use it for commando operations or limited surprised strike. BTW it is a question of time: once France agin total air superiority , we can bomb as much we want util Egyptian force are unable to move . ---Yes I did say that! But the US actually has the military power to do it. Big difference dont you think? And in my scenario, I detail how US would FIGHT THROUGH Syria. I was under no illusions of Syria just ignoring it. As to the Issue of AMRAAM. I dont need AMRAAM with 8 to 1 numerical advantage. Sparrow M did just fine in GW1. And you do not have the power to achieve air superiority over Egypt. ============================================ To retf13: I wasn't trying to imply that these other naval forces were helping either side. the point is that they are there, and as no hostilities are ongoing they all
 
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gixxxerking    What it would take for France to have a chance invading Egypt   5/5/2005 8:40:24 PM
More Tankers More Sea Lift Stealth Aircraft Another CVN 4 more Horizon Medium range bombers Better ASW A 500000 strong invasion force and US level Amphibious capability. 2000 to 3000 MBT Bigger stocks of Cruise Missiles and PGMs
 
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french stratege    RE:BW   5/5/2005 8:44:46 PM
Frankly, do you think that 4 Romeo Egyptian subs have a chance agaisnt 10 dedicated ASW frigates with an outstanding ASW equipment (active LF, towed VLF active AND powed passive recently updated, murene torpedoes, 2 Lynx ASW), 28 ATlantic NG 2 (which have won NATO ASW contest at least one time against US and UK), 6 good SSN, a good SSK (at least use for training but operational) a total of 38 Lynx ASW, 500 Murene torpedoes and our experience in ASW warfare in med ???? Like saying that four Mig21 alone will shoot an AWAC protected by 30 Rafales! Egyptian have no way to hit CdG task force during build up and initial attack phase since they are not in range either by air , surface force or subs. Like US or UK (we exchange with them) we have acoustical database of subs.We can differentiate a ex chinese Romeo class from a Italian Sauro class. We will delimitate a sea war zone area in the weeks before we start to fight. Once Egypt have lost its air force, even it take weeks to destroy Egypt best ground assets and mobility, nothing would prevent us to land successfully in the place we would have choosen either west, east of Egypt with the help of our airborne forces and 4 elite paratrooper regiments. Then an other pyramid battle will open us the way to Cairo!
 
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