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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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bsl    RE:France   4/25/2005 11:35:07 PM
"After WW2 US help continental Europe with a meager aid to rebuild (and it was done mainly by Euroepans) after destroying it." American aid to Europe was virtually unprecedented and it was not "merely" substantial, it was essential to both jump-starting the moribund European economies and to creating enough confidence in totally dispirited continental publics to begin to recreate some legitimacy for local politics in face of active efforts of communists to extend the Soviet sphere all the way to the Atlantic. "...after (the US) destroying it (i.e. Europe)." lol Sorry, FS, you lot managed to destroy yourselves. We only gave you your lives and your countries back. Pity you've done so little with them, since....
 
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bsl    RE:France   4/25/2005 11:37:58 PM
"After WW2 US help continental Europe with a meager aid to rebuild (and it was done mainly by Euroepans) after destroying it." American aid to Europe was virtually unprecedented and it was not "merely" substantial, it was essential to both jump-starting the moribund European economies and to creating enough confidence in totally dispirited continental publics to begin to recreate some legitimacy for local politics in face of active efforts of communists to extend the Soviet sphere all the way to the Atlantic. "...after (the US) destroying it (i.e. Europe)." lol Sorry, FS, you lot managed to destroy yourselves. We only gave you your lives and your countries back. Pity you've done so little with them, since....
 
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bsl    RE:France   4/25/2005 11:39:30 PM
"After WW2 US help continental Europe with a meager aid to rebuild (and it was done mainly by Euroepans) after destroying it." American aid to Europe was virtually unprecedented and it was not "merely" substantial, it was essential to both jump-starting the moribund European economies and to creating enough confidence in totally dispirited continental publics to begin to recreate some legitimacy for local politics in face of active efforts of communists to extend the Soviet sphere all the way to the Atlantic. "...after (the US) destroying it (i.e. Europe)." lol Sorry, FS, you lot managed to destroy yourselves. We only gave you your lives and your countries back. Pity you've done so little with them, since....
 
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gixxxerking    Gix to FS   4/26/2005 12:02:34 AM
Good post. I dont agree with everything but its good to get an idea of how you view yourselves. I would consider France a Minor Power on the world stage but a Major Regional Power. Before you get offended, which is certainly not my intent this time..;), let me explain why I say that. Yes you have nuclear weapons. This is why I say you are even a world power. BUt only in the most grave situations would these come into play. And you do not have enough of them to take on a Superpower such as the US. The main reason why I hesitate to call France a major world power is your navy. France has very little means to control the sea. At best France might be able to conduct a Falklands type mission. But any nation with a decent Air Force or Navy like Singapore, India, Pakistan, Egypt, N. Korea, S. Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, Iran or Saudi Arabia, all hypothetically, could POTENTIALLY stop any unilateral French power projection mission. You would HAVE to have a coalition to secure your interest against these nations which is not all inclusive. And you could forget about any military action against China, Russia, U.K. or USA which could obliterate France. You weak navy and lack of significant power projection force are the main reason here. Culturally and technologically France is a right up at the top. Economically I would say France is a Major world power. Politically I would say France has just enough clout to be a nuisance. But not enough to politically block a major power or super power. Build your navy and the rest will follow!
 
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french stratege    FS to Gxxx: let see the scenarii   4/26/2005 6:49:21 AM
Gxxx said: "like Singapore, India, Pakistan, Egypt, N. Korea, S. Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, Iran or Saudi Arabia, " In this list most of country are today friends: Singapore, India, Egypt,S. Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, and will stay. But consider an hypothetical war. We have two set of countries: 1- countries we can invade or hit strongly:Singapore, Egypt, Vietnam, Iran or Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Vietnam and Iran are the most difficult scenarios but feasible according time and conditions.If not feasible it fall in next category. 2 - countries we can humiliate, damage their navy and threaten/blockade their commerce by sea warfare: India, Pakistan, N. Korea, S. Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Let see the different scenarios: Hypothesis is French force 2009. I detail here main components: 1 CVN , 2 Mistral LPH, 2 LPD, 3 Horizon with Aster 30, 1 cassard, 4 E3F, 3 E2C, 30 Rafale M navy, 40 Rafale Air, 280 m2000 C/D/N, 50 modernized Super Etendard, 10 top ASW frigate, 6 SSN, 38 Lynx ASW, 28 Atlantic NG2, 4 orchidée helos, 15 light frigate/corvettes (can be improved in 3 months adding better air defense), 500 helos, 102 Transport/Tanker aircrafts. Notably in ammunitions: hundred of cruise missiles, 4000 bonus shells, 3000 AASM PGM In special reserve and recrewed in 3 to 6 months: 4 SSK, 2 air defense frigate, 1 LPH, 3 LSD, 400 older aircraft in case (Jaguar, F1CT, SuperEtendard, MIV reco), 540 AMX30B2, 150 AUF1 Men reserve :Navy reserves, air force reserve pilots who do 80 hours a year, SSN/SSBN reserve crews. Quick refit: extending our five Lafayettes to get 5 additional ASW frigates will full ASW capacities. Weapons in delivery for customers can be preempted by French armies/navy (by law) We can build up (we have strong currencies/gold reserves similar to whole USA!See former post) Additional air lift capacities: 14 C747 airFrance cargo at least, 6 AN124, other civilian aircraft Additional sea lift capacities: 30 oiler, ro-ro, ferries with preparation from civilian reserve. Strategic: Helios sat reco, telecom sat, missile launch detection satelites, ELINT satellites, Galileo, 4 SSBN and 400 nukes minimum. Our capacities of course increase especially in 2011-2015 with delivery of a second carrier, 1 Horizon, new Frems frigates with Aster 30/15, and other Rafale and ATF, and new SSN. Troops: 137 (1000) men army, 66 air, 43 navy plus 70 for reserve I will detail in the day and coming day all scenarios.
 
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coolboyjay    RE:FS to Gxxx: let see the scenarii   4/26/2005 7:39:54 AM
come 2009 and India would give u a bloody nose. We would have 2 aircraft carriers. Our existing one, INS Virat, which would almost be due for decomiisioning and Admiral gorshkov with Mig 29's on its board. Now u said about a scenario where u attack india from a 1600 km range. I don't think that would be possible as our fighters (topline su 30 mki around 100-110 in number)would be able to intercept and engage any air attack. Another 50-60 of either f-16's or mirage 2000's, whichever is inducted plus an existing 50 m2000. Then u would have the mig 29's - 60, 27's and 23's existing number : 200 approx. Lets say this number declines to 150 by 2009. still, I guess we would be in for a bloody fight without taking into consideration around 200 nos of Mig 21's. I think im missing some stats..... Anyway, Where how are u going to deploy any of the numbers that u projected. Yup i missed out the navy in 2009: 16 subs, 2 carriers(would be 3 in 2012, we are building our own air defence ship) 10+ destroyers. I believe the number of subs might increase as there are 4 subs coming with admiral gorshkov. http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/20054102046.asp I guess we have enough firepower to withstand a french attack and give them a bloody nose.
 
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Herc the Merc    France is #1 civilization in the History of mankind period.   4/26/2005 11:26:43 AM
ps- I am not French or Catholic.
 
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Herc the Merc    Voltaire & Rosseau & Montesqui I think- weren't they French.   4/26/2005 11:29:00 AM
Besides the food, arts, music, architecture beat any civilization that came by. Fashion-film- the French are untouchable. They may great Catamarans too.
 
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Herc the Merc    France is #1 power, but not force projection capabilities...   4/26/2005 11:53:27 AM
I agree with FS that FRance is truly the second power in the world, the only nation capable of making Rafles to Triomphe's inhouse. Except for its smaller size FRance would be equal or better than everyone else. UK is nothing more than an American client state military & geo-politically so count them out, Gemany & Japan hands tied, Russia has no force projection just nukes, China the same -plus they import their arms- ditto India. In several air training missions French pilots even beat US pilots consistently (except Tom Cruise). And Bush & gang slighted(insulted) FRance because FRance did not -co-operate in Iraq, I think so France will arm China- and they can do it with impunity and yes they have nukes and second strike capability. FRance had a little bad century because France had bad friends- lets see how this French-Chinese dance goes.
 
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EW3    RE:Voltaire & Rosseau & Montesqui I think- weren't they French.   4/26/2005 12:24:10 PM
"Voltaire & Rosseau & Montesqui I think- weren't they French" I hope you are kidding of course. You left out the most important thinkers like DesCartes. But if you really are serious, try Greeece. There's a few fellas like Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, Archimedes etc. Without Aristotle, there would be no Roman Empire, and without the Roman Empire there would be no France. Our entire way of logic was described by Aristotle. Our entire system of reductionism and taxonomy is from Aristotle. But then the French might also forget Newton and all the other scientists that the Engish and Scots produced. Missing people like John Locke. And of course the Germans like Emanuel Kant, or Einstien or that guy named Liebnitz that developed calculus in // with Newton, or Martin Luther. Let's also not forget teh entire oriental culture which did pretty goo dwithout a Frenchman. The French need to get over themselves, so they can begin to progress again. Remember Napoleon was not French.
 
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