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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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gf0012-aust    Egypt scenario   5/3/2005 11:18:38 PM
I think France is able to do this but it really depends on what the tac objective is: If it's to indulge in a force majeur confrontation I think that tactically france can achieve it.. ie: render egyptian comms hubs blind deaf and dumb with PGM use her subs to sink all principle ASW skimmers blockade the principle ports after prev has been achieved use the CdG battle task force to menace bluewater traffic and use declare all air space around the stand off points to be an exclusion zone. I think they can achieve a tactical win through compression after killing off the critical force threats. Egypt can't respond effectively to subs, and if those subs kill her only ASW assets, plus kill principle skimmers as well as blockade the major commerce ports, then Egypt will start to implode at a socio-economic level. By not committing to a land assault, they reduce the perception of being an invader - so stand off and choke.
 
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Nichevo    RE:gixx/wjr/FS ARAB COURAGE   5/3/2005 11:42:12 PM
Nevermind getting in. Anybody can establish a beachhead for enough lives. Could France conquer one urban area in Egypt if they dispersed and went guerilla like in Iraq? If all Baghdad rose up en masse against us, we would have a hard time. Do you imagine Cairo would spread her legs for you? Or are you prepared for a new chapter in urban warfare? Where the inhabitants might not concede total conventional submission, to boot? I issed the opening of this. What was the French casus belli again, and her objective in this matter? FS, I suspect you just want to wargame the respective orders of battle with presupposed ratios for French and Egyptian élan, ignoring sociopolitics entirely. For just one instance, under what circumstances do you foresee beating Egypt in the Arab street? If they gang-raped Laetitia Casta live on Al Jazeera I don't think it would stop say Hezbollah from blowing up French targets in Lebanon, nor a beur uprising in the cités, a Morrocan dishwasher in one of your mess halls at Toulon compromising your security somehow so that the base receives a dozen suicide bomb trucks and is half shut down for a month, or even getting whacked by OPEC 'solidarity' so that the industrialized world becomes really annoyed at you? The question of how cheap French blood is, and how willing you are to talk and push papers or maybe make symbolic frappés vs. conquer dominate subjugate or destroy Egypt or hold at risk such high value targets as to induce Egypt's surrender to such terms as you may name (surrender the killers? My dear, why didn't you ask?), and what price you will pay to do so, is separate from this, yet it is not. Except for the lavish use of nuclear weapons or other such 'war crimes' as say the destruction of the Aswan Dam so blithely mooted about here, which *might* yield total 'victory' (annihilation of Egypt?), what would you hope to accomplish? Amateurs discuss tactics. Let us at least rise to strategy. I think Gixx has treated logistics pretty thoroughly, though again I concede you could amass temorary local superiority somewhere and land some troops. Maybe you should just land a dozen Leons in Cairo and murder Mubarak and his son? Isn't that easier? Again, why are you doing this? Oh, and what would your residual capacity be on another front if needed?
 
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Nichevo    RE:gixx/wjr/FS ARAB COURAGE   5/3/2005 11:45:45 PM
Mithridates (the correct spelling, btw), after they set off the first one, do you really think there would be a need for more, or for an invasion? What concessions would Egypt not make, if attacked with one nuke (even as a high-altitude demonstration) and threatened with more?
 
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Godofgamblers    Nichevo: dobry ruski zawod, prawda li   5/3/2005 11:52:50 PM
you're about 350 posts behind, nichevo. this is an abstract war, basically a bet between FS and GIx. we agreed somewhere in post 120-145 to not include Moroccan waiters and cleaning staff, so they are not being included in the scenario.
 
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Nichevo    RE:gixxxerking RE:mithradates 5/2/2005 11:57:13 PM   5/3/2005 11:54:46 PM
Forget that, Gixx, Egypt pulls out the Pharoah's crown jewels they've been hiding, or some other rainy day stash, makes the run of all the corrupt ex-Sov nuke drivers, global black market bazaars, Nigerien U mines, Chinese rad-waste contractors. Is French domestic security at this point so very tight that nobody with all the resources of a nation-state could smuggle a nuke into France and blow up Paris (or maybe just Notre Dame)? What in all of Egypt is worth the Louvre? What was the point of this exercise again? To hurt Egypt worse than they hurt France? Why not sink a cruise ship or something? Where is the proportionality? How could Egypt even manage to incur such wrath?
 
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Nichevo    mithradates RE:gixx EMP attack 5/3/2005 12:29:00 AM   5/4/2005 12:01:15 AM
Uh, genius, What do you think of when I say the word, "fallout?" Your casual, naive, almost frivolous attitude towards the use of nuclear weapons really makes me worry about China, if in fact you represent them. Do you think that China would use nuclear EMP to conquer Taiwan? If not, how does France nuke Egypt? Would China have nuked the US if we had gone in with commandos and taken our EP-3 back? (Will China nuke us next week on 24?)
 
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Nichevo    RE:Improved scenario part 1   5/4/2005 12:08:20 AM
You say "killing French *and western* citizens?" It sounds like it would be more than France then. Perhaps all NATO would rise with you if your cause were sufficiently just. How just is your cause exactly? What is it they have done? Something like a TWA 847 hijacking, or an assassination of Chirac, or a 9/11 attack on the Eiffel Tower, or what? If you're just looking to exercise a wargame, why not retake Algeria? It would be much easier ;>.
 
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Nichevo    RE:How rank France in world power?   5/4/2005 12:09:10 AM
If so, perhaps you could explain the Masons to me? It would be interesting to have a French take on them.
 
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Nichevo    RE:Part 2-1 FS stats   5/4/2005 12:13:42 AM
Do you really expect all your weapons to both function 100% and to hit their targets 100% and never to be wasted (i.e., two AAM on one enemy fighter)? Do you REALLY? Are these magic missiles, perhaps?;>
 
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Nichevo    RE:Nichevo: dobry ruski zawod, prawda li   5/4/2005 12:23:25 AM
No, thanks, GoG, I got that. But I have lots of other unanswered questions. What is the provocation, what is the objective? Since this is a OOB exercise we can leave out some ramifications (though again if the US is going to invade with them, or the Israelis shoot down their SLBMs, I think it would affect the math). To occupy a nation takes 1:20 soldiers per population, right? Maybe you can stretch it a little, like in AF or Iraq? How many people in Egypt again, and how many in the French armed forces? The best French strategy would be to make other Western nations think they had a dog in the fight. And to avoid same for Egypt's neighbors.
 
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