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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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french stratege    RE:How rank France in world power?   4/25/2005 12:01:55 PM
Any research on official data from international organisation shows that France and UK are on par. Data 2005 from International Monetary Fund : France 1,745,946 United Kingdom 1,739,572 Italy 1,653,289 http://www.localcolorart.com/search/encyclopedia/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29/ To say UK is the fourth largest economy like UK does is a little bit short: France is very slightly ahead but when you see UK trade deficit vs France, you understand that UK LIVE on CREDIT which artifically increase its GDP. This study from MIT show that France have the world highest productivity: econ- If US productivity is 100, France is at 113.So we have margin to scale up in case of crisis with such available manpower.
 
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french stratege    Gold and currencies reserve   4/25/2005 12:04:15 PM
According to US CIA website or currencies and gold reserve are pretty good considering our size: This is real capacitiy to fund a war! http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html Reserves of foreign exchange & gold: USA: $85.94 billion (2003) Reserves of foreign exchange & gold: France: $70.76 billion (2003) Reserves of foreign exchange & gold: UK: $46.05 billion (2003)
 
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french stratege    Gop   4/25/2005 12:11:11 PM
Gop China and India have a largest population and GDP in PPP, but they will be still much backward France in military technology even in 2015.You can field more weapons but with lower quality and tech level and unless you have maybe N* more (depending tech gap level), it will not necessarly compensate quality.
 
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The Lizard King    What Europeans NEED!   4/25/2005 12:35:04 PM
Religion. Europeans need something to supplement their nationalism. European Nationalism caused the last two world wars, and perhaps the third one? French Stratge, a better question would be How rank France in moral power? Europeans do not understand that they are living in the realty that America has created for them. Who rebuilt Europe? Who has opened up the world markets? Who has provided the stability & peace needed for the global exchange of goods, services, and resources?
 
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french stratege    France   4/25/2005 12:44:46 PM
Intersting article as it show the dominant thinking in France even it speak about French socialist.But on foreign affairs Chirac views are close. http://www.policyreview.org/oct00/caldwell_print.html "Europeans do not understand that they are living in the realty that America has created for them." LOL ! After WW2 US help continental Europe with a meager aid to rebuild (and it was done mainly by Euroepans) after destroying it. Not an help fro friendly motive, only to counter communism.
 
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PeregrinePike    FS: Striking India... not with rational thought for survival   4/25/2005 12:59:00 PM
"For India we can also blackmail them with nukes as they can not retaliate until they have an ICBM able to reach Paris." -- What makes you think we cant do that now... other than the fact that we havent tested Surya yet?... but as I recall neither has France field-tested an ICBM. "Humiliation is done by firing at least 200 cruise missiles on major sites like ministry of defense , parlement, R&D and some plants ..." -- Hope our Arrow and Patriot defences work... and how do you plan on getting those 200 cruise missile within firing range? "French task force will stay at 1600 km of Indian coast at least." -- Where will you stand 1600 km away from Indian coast without stepping on someone's toes? - If any of the Gulf states agree to such a scheme, expect a revolution in that state... with most states having more Indian immigrants than native Arabs. - If Pak plays host, Indian Army gets another shot at tearing those punks apart again. - If any of the SE Asian nations play host, again exect them to be torn apart by the Army on a later date. - Of course China can guarentee the SE Asian side, but then US will guarentee that you cannot breach Suez either. - And as an aggressor will you be let near Diego-Gracia?... I dont think so. So that leaves standing in the cold next to Antarctica, with maximum flying distance, hence maximum chances of interception.... and least number of targets approachable. "We will hit west coast of India from Djibouti with air refueling supported by 2E3F." -- And we will stage a walk-in from Yemen.... do you even have more than a batt of FFL in Djbouti? I thought US was taking over in there now. "With Indian surface navy , it is impossible as you can not cope with Cdg and its long range antiship airstrikes." -- How will CdG cope with a Brahmos missile... do you have an AGEIS cover? "Maldives or Adaman.If Adaman are reinforced we could surely invade, after a bombing campaign as indian air force can not support that.CDG +3 LPH+4 LSD available+civilian transport.If Indian navy try to save Adaman garrison, it is naval battle and we probabaly won." -- Who will let you that close, again?.... and it will be fun reporting in ToI when one of the tribals there manages to have an unlucky French soldier for dinner... call that French Cusine with Indian spices ;-) There ARE cannibals among them... and the world's only paleolithic settlements. So you already have a combined National Geographic and National Anthroplogy armada expedition heading to Paris ;-) Its only on the issue of Fifth Column does India have to worry in any confrontation except with US... but the fact that AIMSU has been such a pain in the butt might not be such a bad thing after all. We can just activate their bloody French chapters and let them work on it.... and we can have a jolly good counter-insurgency race. Anyway... days of Duplix are long over.
 
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french stratege    The fact is that we can strike India either conventionally or nuclear    4/25/2005 1:38:52 PM
I recall neither has France field-tested an ICBM." We cuurently test fire our SLBM at 6500 km with 6 warheads in inverse rotary sense of earth (to guyanna it show that our SLBM range is above 7000 km firing on the east without reducing warheads number ).BTW our new SLBM will be about 8500 km AT LEAST.But they are on SLBM and so can hit any country in the world. ""Humiliation is done by firing at least 200 cruise missiles on major sites like ministry of defense , parlement, R&D and some plants ..." -- Hope our Arrow and Patriot defences work... and how do you plan on getting those 200 cruise missile within firing range?" It is clear that we would lauched them by our fighter airrefueled from Djibouti or our aircraft carrier out of range of India airforce. "US will guarentee that you cannot breach Suez either." I wonder why US would take side to India. "And we will stage a walk-in from Yemen.... do you even have more than a batt of FFL in Djbouti? I thought US was taking over in there now." Djibouti is the main overseas french base garantee by threaty.US are guest of the French in Djibouti, not from the Djibouti governement. ""French task force will stay at 1600 km of Indian coast at least." -- Where will you stand 1600 km away from Indian coast without stepping on someone's toes?" read French NAVAL task force. ""With Indian surface navy , it is impossible as you can not cope with Cdg and its long range antiship airstrikes." -- How will CdG cope with a Brahmos missile... do you have an AGEIS cover?" We have Horizon with ASTER 30/15 which is more efficient to cope with Supersonic sea skimmer massive attack than AEGIS.Brahmos is not yet deployed . When India will have Brahmos in numbers we will have 168 ASTER 30 in VLS ramp surrounding French task force.Then 528 in 2015. BTW we have E2C to protect the fleet from incoming aircraft and no doubt Rafale in coordination with E2C would cope with a incoming raid of 50 SU 30. BTW Brahmos can not be deployed on SU30 (too heavy). I guess you should take some info on French defense and capacities.reread properly the post. India have 6 air tanker and 3IL76 as awac.30 SU 30 delivered, 54 M2000 (jammable by the French as French ) and 75 Mig 29.other plane are outdated. Indian navy most potent force is subs today. But it would not prevent raid from Djibouti or la Reunion or CdG with cruise missiles (and or appache is pretty stealthy).India can not protect all its site so we choose the easiest.A Rafale can be refueld in flight after taking off from CdG.Then our radius of action is more than 1600 km.Moreover our state of our ECM is a golden mile above those of Indian.After all we are their supplier!! On the subs: I ve checked today by a proper phone call.We can recrew at least 4 subs on the 7 in active reserve in weeks, knowing our today active subs are all double crew (so 10 crews available for subs in active reserve), systems are identical and crew were previoulsy trained of these ship (still OK as refited in the ninentees with latest electronic and put in active reserve for post cold war reduction). This to repush our subs fleet avalable for an Indian strike to 10 to 13. The fact is that we can strike India either conventionally or nuclear and India can not strike France. But India is France friend.
 
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ShallowThinker1    RE:FS: Striking India... not with rational thought for survival   4/25/2005 1:53:08 PM
Peregrine Pike, From FS's recent link: France’s big project of the coming decades will be to transform Europe into a new kind of superpower: a collective one that has France at its intellectual and moral center. That's the intellectual and moral center that will "blackmail" India with strategic nukes and "humiliate" her with hundreds of cruse missiles. That's the nation that wants to "humanize" the "savage capitalism" practiced by the US and the UK. I don't know the original publication date of that amusing article FS found and pointed us to, but if France is still engaged in a big self-esteem hug and riding high on the power of a 1998 world cup soccer victory, they're in real trouble. What a bunch of dopey rubes.
 
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BS_Crusher    RE:How rank France in world power?   4/25/2005 2:07:29 PM
French Strtegie, France, the EU, China and India together have a tremendous opportunity to develop a new economic and military world order in which our combined education, ingenuity, technology and economies would work in interdependance. If there is one way to let America and the world know that there is a new superpower in town, this unprecedented alliance of our common nations would be a powerhouse of humanity's better instincts (peaceful coexistance, rapid advancements in knowledge and technology as opposed to constant instability, war and terrorism). I don't know about you, but I think the world is getting a little tired of this lopsided power trip America is on for the last 15 years since the Soviet Union collapse.
 
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bsl    RE:How rank France in world power?-Cloud Cuckoo Land   4/25/2005 11:29:21 PM
"France, the EU, China and India ...unprecedented alliance of our common nations would be a powerhouse of humanity's better instincts (peaceful coexistance, rapid advancements in knowledge and technology as opposed to constant instability, war and terrorism)." lol This may set records for fatuous self-gratification. Apart from the interesting distinction drawn between "France and the EU", the entire idea behind the proposal appears to be a desperate antiAmericanism.
 
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