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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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AchtungLagg    arab stereotypes wrong   5/3/2005 12:08:37 AM
israel learned to respect the egyptian fighting sprit and dedication to fight in 1973, why cant you? Egyptian equipment is quite world class now, and their pilot training is known to be #2 in the region, and the gap between them and israel isnt what it was, especially in the air.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:arab stereotypes wrong   5/3/2005 12:13:31 AM
This is correct! The first stage of the 1973 conflict had tremedous Arab success!
 
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mithradates    RE:gixx EMP attack   5/3/2005 12:29:00 AM
Well, the trick to a successful EMP strike is of course the altitude to set the burst. Set it too low, and the blast radiation kills a whole lot of people including civilians. Set it too high and the EMP generated will knock out the infrastructure of the surrounding countries. Needless to say, the French would have to figure out the right altitude to detonate their EMP bombs. But if they do it right, they would manage to knock out 95% of the electronic equipment in Eygpt without killing Egyptian civilians or destroying the infrastructure of neighboring nations. Now keep in mind, this wouldn't technically be an attack on the civilian populace of Egypt, so responding with plague filled scuds on french citizens may even give France the moral high ground. In either case, Egypt's military would effectively be paralyzed. And basic services to the major population centers of Eygpt will be halted. So I mean things like phone lines, electricity, clean water, sanitation. The Egyption government will basically be facing a logistical nightmare of trying to keep it's own urban citizens from starving or getting nasty diseases that comes naturally comes with the loss of essential utilities. So yes, using this tactic, the French will be able to conquor the whole of Egypt with their existing forces and with minimal casualties.
 
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Godofgamblers    RE:arab stereotypes wrong   5/3/2005 12:29:33 AM
i welcome your entry into this discussion, achtunglag. perhaps it will temper my arab diatribe a bit. i based my evaluation on their socio-political situation, i.e. they represent a totalitarian regime and have little stake in a combat. they may even welcome a toppling of the regime. in third world countries materiel procurement is often not based on a comprehensive military concept, but on various 'transfer pricing' deals and influence peddling, resulting in procurement of a mish mash of unsuitable equipment, meant to enrich the procureurs and nothing else. my analysis is also based on the arab soldiers i have met who, veins bulging in their necks and ready to have an aneurysm, rail against cowardly commanders, non-existent provisions, impossible objectives, etc., that embarrass them time and time again. it is true that they do not have a good track record. they are number two in the region; i assume you mean that israel is number 1: but there may be a very very long distance between number one and two. regards GoG
 
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mithradates    RE:gixx EMP attack   5/3/2005 12:33:40 AM
Now one thing that I'm not sure about is the capabilities of the French SLBM. What do mean that it's trajectory will cause the EMP to damage infrastructure in Saudi Arabia? Is it because the missle has a preset detonation altitude? It seems that this is something that should be easily configurable.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:gixx EMP attack   5/3/2005 12:48:56 AM
EMP is line of sight. TO get the effect you want over all of Egypt and not have significant effects in other nations would require the SLBM detonate at about 60,000 ft altitude. Definately on the way down. TO effect ONLY North East Egypt where the civil infrastructure is the detonation is at 20,000 ft. Consider the warhead is re-entering at very high speed. Many Many times the speed of sound. Even a few milliseconds off for the fuse and you get an air burst over a populated area and thats real bad. Either the warhead explodes too high and effects other nations or too low and does too much damage. The ASMP might be a better weapon if it could reach the required altitudes. Not tomention you basically have SLBM's apporaching Israel who migh decide the French represent a greater threat than the Egyptians.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:gixx EMP attack   5/3/2005 12:51:31 AM
In a one on one fight Egypt CANNOT DEAL WITH FRENCH NUCLEAR POWER. But as we know at that point it would not be one on one. And Egypt could directly retaliate on France with Chem/Bio attack.
 
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mithradates    RE:gixx EMP attack   5/3/2005 12:56:36 AM
Well the point that I was making is: if France manages to get this scenario right(meaning no significant civilian nuke casualites, no damage to neighboring nations), they would be able to take over Egypt in a very short period of time. Assuming that they pull this off as a surprise attack, Egypt will have a very hard time retaliating with the Chemical/Bio weaponery of their own, being that scuds can be shot down. It takes a Chinaman to tell the French how to win!!! :)
 
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AchtungLagg    gog   5/3/2005 1:18:05 AM
i know what you mean, but, i thought it was generally accepted that at all levels the egyptians are thought to have performed foremost among the arabs, and even if the men dislike their regime arabs, and egyptians in particular, have a very strong sense of country and national pride, and woudl react to such an invasion with zeal (its not like their fighting hyperpower america)and act in a competent manner. Its not 1967 you konw. What i understant the israelis learned from the yom kippur war was to respect the egyptian soldier as a worthy foe, mind you, althoguh many surrendered, a good lot died "faces to the foe" and steadfast in the face of attack. The same thing goes for iraq...who knows what would have happened in GWI if it was only the british, or only the french, or even an anglofrench mission to fight them? Performance vs America on anyones part is not doing the foe justice. In the conflicts which arab troops have fought in the past century, i believe the west has mistaken failure on the part of crude and inferior weaponry with justifiable poor morale and collapse as a result for pure cowardice and incompetence. If it were 1975 i might give this to the french, but now that egypt has modern, good weaponry, and men that know how to use it(contrary to, again, stereotypes from 30 years ago, they DO), AND the ridiculous numerical advantage in this scenario, egypt will again be inundated with dead frogs everywhere...
 
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gixxxerking    RE:gixx EMP attack   5/3/2005 1:28:31 AM
No mithradates. Not win. Unless the objective is to cause hell for the sake of it. This scenario would ensure direct international support if a traditional nuke is used to produce the effects. Imagine the headline, "French detonate a nuclear weapon over Egypt in an unprovoked attack". The average person will only understand it as a nuclear attack. And anarchy and chaos will break out in Egypt. Every AK-47 in that nation will still finction as will most of the other military equipment. What will happen is a super insurgency with modern weapons systems under no central authority and no means to issue surrender orders. Iraq is many time weaker and look at the trouble. France has much less power than the US and would have to deal with a much bigger problem. So in summary France would be able to invade but still not conquer. Also the attack I mentioned on the CdG would still enjoy a high probability of success.
 
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