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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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Bluewings    RE:Bluewings   5/2/2005 7:10:46 PM
That should read " *uck off" . (bloody censorship , lol !) Cheers .
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Battle of the Med -FS   5/2/2005 8:13:05 PM
FS, to disrupt the offense. I propose the following. You say that the CdG is near Create: http://www.strategypage.com/messageboards/messages/30-45735.asp So there is no confussion between us. I stated previously that my SSKs would be in this location as it is only ~150 nm between in and North Africa. Little room for manuver and perfect for SSK to ambush you: http://www.strategypage.com/messageboards/messages/30-45585.asp Also referenced since to avoid confusion. In addition I my small missile boats will be in this area hiding among the many small islands. So THE MOMENT France initiates hostilities, a significant missile strike on the CdG group will commence. Without CdG you cannot be in the Red Sea above the surface. This will allow me to concentrate my defence in the Med. So in addition to the SSK/OSA attacks Egypt will use an air attack to stop your offense. Now two Squadrons of TU-16 will sortie with ARM Kelt missiles. 24 TU-16 Badgers using terrain masking will fire 48 Kelt missiles. at the CdG group as both a decoy and for SEAD. The two Squadrons will attack on multiple axis. A third Group of 12. will fire Radar homing ASMs at the CdG. Due to the range of the Kelt the Badgers will not have to come withing range of the Aster 30. A figher Sweep of 48 F-16 will approach to engage the Rafales/E-2c on CAP. The defenders cannot be many due to small compliment of CdG, time to launch enough defenders and most of the Rafales are on offensive missions if you are attacking with 60 Rafale as per your plan FS. A second group of F-16, 24, intermixed with the Badgers will fire Harpoons. SO we have we have the following incomming missiles. 20 SSM from the OSA 48 ARM from the TU-16 24 ASM From the Tu-16 48 Harpoon Block 2 From F-16 Torpedo attack from SSK's within 10 hours or less @ 3 knots closure on CdG. THis will be followed up with Mig-21 carrying conventional bombs in a second wave depending on the results of the first wave. Now FS, tell me. Do you think none of this will get through? Look at the war head size of the Kelt and Harpoon. Just one hit on any ship less than CdG and it is out. If CdG survives it will HAVE TO retreat. Your Horizon will have to exhaust VLS to hold this attack and have over 90% hit rate. Troop ships would also have to leave if present. But a suprise is waiting. Mines will be sown along the most likely route of your retreat and SSK will be weapons free for any escaping French vessel. OK so here is your situation post strike. In the best case, but unlikely, scenario you hit every inbounb missile. Now you are dry on Aster 30/15. Follow on strike a few hours later vanquishes your fleet as they flee. Worse case, possible but not likely, is the CdG itself is hit multiple times and sinks. You lose the war right then and there. Most likely result is several warships and logistical ships are damaged and sunk. Maybe even CdG is hit. Your VLS are dry and your fleet is no longer capable of offensive operations. The war is over in all three cases with Egypt the Victor. ANY OBJECTIVE READER WILL CONFIRM THIS.
 
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wjr    RE:France / Egypt   5/2/2005 8:26:20 PM
Blue, You have about as much chance of attracting Israeli help as I do of being made a Hero of the Soviet Union next week. Israeli opinion of French anti-semitism and French support of the late and unlamented Arafat is positively poisionous. It is very much more likely that Irael will support the Egyptians. If they do then France is toast in this exercise. Best, wjr
 
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gixxxerking    Check Mate -FS   5/2/2005 8:36:06 PM
FS, in case you think you can survive that attack Egypt will sortie 24 F-4 with AIM-9, Maverick Missile and MK series bombs to finish off the CdG group. Check Mate my friend. You have no counter move once your Navy moves off the coast of Crete. If you dont move off the coast of Crete, you cannot attack in sufficient strength or support an amphibious landing. If you attack only from the Southeast and Southwest which are 1000 miles distant, you give time to Egyptian armor reorrient and mass for defense and counter attack. Also Southern FAF cannot provide enough CAS while providing TARCAP over 1000 miles from bases to support French Army. You are defeated in all scenarios.
 
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ret13f    RE:Check Mate -FS   5/2/2005 9:04:47 PM
DAMN! this is great! I'm even beginning to like these Frenchmen. Mind you, wouldn't want FS on my general staff but i think it would be fun to shoot the and drink some wine(not something i'd normally do, but, in honor of the frenchman, why not). FS: 'remind' not remember. (I remind you),, so now i await my french lesson.
 
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Bluewings    RE:France / Egypt   5/2/2005 9:05:46 PM
wjr , Israel siding with Egypt ?? Jews and Arabs together against a Western nation ?? Against France ?? Oh Man , that would be a scoop ! Cheers .
 
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Godofgamblers    historical precedents   5/2/2005 9:15:15 PM
i think, gixx, that you are assuming that france and egypt are on par. comparing equipment is fine on paper, but not in reality, as the arab armies found to their chagrin in the various Israeli-Arab conflicts. everything points to the egyptians folding like deck chairs upon the first air raid siren. my guess is they would be falling over themselves to give up or avoid conflict, as they have in EVERY SINGLE modern military confrontation. why would they suddenly develop a western level of professionalism for this scenario? the french could use corsica and toulon as a base of operations; they use dijibouti to mount airstrikes and stage a feinte in the red sea: the real attack will come from the mediterranean. a small french force, supported by aircraft from dijibouti, advances up to suez as a decoy then holds its position. this will engage egyptian fighters and personnel. meanwhile, the main french force lands in alexandria which is a staging base for operations. attacked in two directions, the arabs won't know which way to retreat to. armor is moved in and an air corridor is opened by french helos to cairo. there is no need to occupy or move out of alexandria. once the air corridor is opened to cairo, the FAF makes continual sorties against military assets in cairo and the french patiently await for the egyptian surrender plea to come in the diplomatic pouch. battle over. time from opening of hostilities to egyptian surrender: 7 days.
 
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Godofgamblers    RE:France / Egypt Bluewings/WJR   5/2/2005 9:18:07 PM
bluewings, wjr is right on this one: egypt has sold out big time to the US. it is a US satellite state. israel siding with egypt would surprise no one in the arab world. the arabs are easy to divide, as they have been over the centuries. but for the sake of this scenario, i think the ground rules should be france vs. egypt with no outside help.
 
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Bluewings    RE:historical precedents   5/2/2005 9:21:50 PM
Godofgamblers , you are hugely optimistic , lol ! Nevertheless , a lot of what you say is worth listening . Will Egypt fall so fast when facing what is for them such a massive Force ? Perhaps ... Cheers ,
 
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Bluewings    RE:France / Egypt Bluewings/WJR   5/2/2005 9:23:17 PM
rgr that Godofgamblers . Cheers .
 
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