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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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french stratege    ex98   5/2/2005 10:00:15 AM
Good post Bluewing.Ex98c has made interesting remark which has more sense than free gxxx affirmation. Artillerie: you forgot TR155 and I think the toal delivery of Caesar is 105 not 72. For ASW where did you see 19: it is 11 but their ASW suit is top (ETBF , active/passive towed and hull).Then we can update rather quicly Lafayette (prewired and equiped) and use Avison A69 in shallow water.Of course other Frigate have sonar.Other means 7/6 ssn/ssk +28 ATlantic 2 +38 Lynx ASW. To be continued
 
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gixxxerking    RE:ex98 and fs   5/2/2005 11:43:30 AM
FS you have failed to provide anything more than an equipment list and claims thats because your equipment is more advanced you will win. THis despite not being able to get it all there. COmpare to my plan: http://www.strategypage.com/messageboards/messages/30-36503.asp Where I not only provide a summary but a detailed plan with sequence of events, most probable coarses of action and contigency plans. All supported by detailed logistics plan, so ex-98c you are wrong to compare mine to his as mine would work. You have read the thread so you can confirm there. ex-98c is only telling you what I have already told you. But to be honest there is no "plan" that would work for France because you do not have the ability to carry out the most grand plans with what resources you have available. In the US vs EU thread regardless of if my specific plan would work the USA could defeat any nation on Earth. Because we are a real superpower.
 
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gixxxerking    FS time to man up. Question to you...   5/2/2005 1:15:26 PM
There is no shame in admitting a mistake. Do you still stand by the following statement? "In fact we can CRUSH any latin america or African nation, invade Arabia peninsula or south east asian nations, strike (and destroy their navy) on Iran, China, Pakistan or India without important losses." --FS
 
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french stratege    RE:FS time to man up. Question to you...   5/2/2005 2:17:43 PM
". Do you still stand by the following statement? "In fact we can CRUSH any latin america or African nation, invade Arabia peninsula or south east asian nations, strike (and destroy their navy) on Iran, China, Pakistan or India without important losses." --FS " For South America and Africa no problem. I still maintain my view on Egypt since that we succeded to destroy its airforce.Same for Sudia Arabia.Nothing to change indeed. Ex 98c was right to say that invading delta would be diificult and I said it was not the purpose. You fail to explain me how can Egypt impeach us to land in Ras Banas. http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/atlas_middle_east/egypt.jpg I did furnish a detailled scenario like you in EUvsUK because I have no time as I'm working. At least I furnished elements: -3 months of discrete building and negociate to earn time -Destroying Egypt E2C (tools: C4ISR, Essai satellites, Gabriel C160, Nostradamus semi-mobile OTH radar in Chad or Djibouti, Rafale, antirunway Apache cruise missile, scalp cruise missile ...) -Destroying Egypt airforce (air superiority from CVN, Chad, Djibouti) -air war of attrition vs Egypt ground forces (AASM ..) -Combined airmobile brigade assault from Djibouti/Chad on south east and landing beach + Landing in Ras Banas of heavy elements + assault from light cavalerie (3 brigades via Chad) - Baranis taken and coast road, and Mut on western desert. - establishing air base in Baranis and western desert, and building 1rst armored heavy corps in Baranis - reinforcing light cavalery and motorized division in Al Karija to corps size (western desert) - second step advance: Luxor, Aswan taken - Heavy armor moving via Nile Valley and cavalerie/motorized/(bulk of helo brigade) on western desert to the north.Secondary Landing in Bur Savagah or Marsa Matruh. - Egypt surrender French estimated losses : a hundred airplane , 200 tanks, 100 helos, 5000 men.
 
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S.C.P    RE:How rank France in world power?   5/2/2005 2:23:08 PM
france ranks 1 behind the UK.
 
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french stratege    RE:france /england before thatcher   5/2/2005 3:00:14 PM
We don't need a Thatcher, we need a De Gaulle to reput the country on track. In fact we don't have private sector of prethatcher UK, our private sector is competitive.
 
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gixxxerking    Cold Hard Facts   5/2/2005 3:18:00 PM
FS your sortie rate over Egypt will be less than 200 a day at the peak and average 100 or less throughout the duration of the conflict. Do you know what this means? It means that Egypt could LET you land anywhere you chose and them smash you with an Armored fist! Even in Desert Storm there was significant armored combat and you only have a fraction of that kind of air power. So lots and lots of the nerly 1000 Abrams by 2009 will still be alive when you land. And in the face of this you actually propose to land in an amphibious operation with no BB or shore bombardment to speak of? 40 Rafales from the CdG would not be able to support the operation and defende the CVN from the Harpoons/Styx. This is truly a bloodbath and would ultimately lead to French defeat! FS I have no nationalistic motivation toward Egypt and I would tell you if I thought you plan could work. Also you predict the loss of 100 airplanes. Thats a full 25% of your combat aircraft not counting helos! Now yo must be saying no those losses arent limited to combat planes. Doesnt matter because you dont have enough multipliers, AWACS/Tankers/Cargo/EW, to afford any losses there. even counting them would still leave you close to 25% losses in fighters. Imagine if the the US lost 25% of its aircraft in DS1! Now you say 200 tanks would be lost? All I have to say to that is wow! You do know that after 30% losses you become combat ineffective right? So you are deploying over 600 tanks to this task? with what lift? Keep in mind Egypt can locally produce full fledged M1 Abrams tans and in 2009 will have almost 1000 of those beasties. FS ANYONE who knows strategy or tactics or has actually served especially in armor will tell you this plan fails 10 out of 10 times. Better break out the nukes. Egypt has many SAMs FS. Both Russian and US. All combat proven and the patriot had no difficulty blasting the very low RCS F/A-18E out of the sky. So you would need to deal with that threat. And then there is the 200+ F-16 all BVR capable by 2009. They are backed up by several hundred Mig-21 and other fighters. How in the hell if your average sortie rate is 100 per day, are you going to overwhelm this force over its home soil? From the bases you list you will be laden with full tanks and very short on missiles. Also in addition to AWACs Egypt has 3D advanced GCI integrated with fighters and SAMs built by USA. So Egyptian SA in or near their territory will be 1st class. That means your fighters will more often then not be flying in to a prepared IAD. You will be swarmed over Egytian land and territorial waters. Over the CdG you should have no problem controlling the skies provided you do not com within 200nm or Egypt. You will have to do this for any amphibious assualt.
 
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french stratege    RE:Cold Hard Facts   5/2/2005 3:35:05 PM
We have only 1000 miles to travel.A C135 plus the 26 Transall C160 and buddy refueling, plus CdG, could easily allow a 800 sorties per day.Moreover we can add some tankers (A340/A330) using refueling pods if preparation is more than 3 months. (Tankers :90% avaibility, 3 tankers sorties, 3.3 tons delivered for each plane).But we could go to 4 maybe so one thousand sorties per days the 3 first days. .9*3*14*10 = 378 for C135 + .9*3*22*5= 297 for 22 C160 NG + 100 to 120 for Cdg Moreover we will have maybe 2 more tanker in 2009 (add 54). Apache antipiste (antirunway ) are launched with Scalp by M2000D (M2000C/5 in protection) while Rafale cope with E2C.
 
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french stratege    RE:Cold Hard Facts   5/2/2005 3:38:08 PM
Amphibious assault is done after crushing 90% of Egypt air force.
 
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wjr    RE:france /england before thatcher   5/2/2005 3:59:20 PM
FS, I’m not sure a De Gaulle would be appropriate. Le épatant Charles was badly needed to restore the confidence of France after the Second World War. He was, however, not a reformer of bureaucracies but more the firm hand and confident demeanor that France needed at the time. France needs both someone to inspire her and someone who is able to lead her toward more economic liberté and less socialisme and bureaucratie. Thus a Thatcherite metaphor is required – obviously one that is more in line with French culture but, none-the-less, a person capable of making hard choices to the benefit of the people in the long run rather than the short run. And one who is sans reproche. This need is not unique to France but, at this time, she needs this badly. Best, wjr
 
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