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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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french stratege    blitz   5/1/2005 8:31:13 AM
India is not miliatry stronguer than France execpt for infantry number.Most of their tank are outdated tanks as planes. India has 30 SU30 nor operational, 75 mig 29 and 54 M2000.Other are pretty outdated soviet aircrafts. Then India has no potent awac and ASTOR/Orchidee equivalent. They buy abroad their system and you can be sure they don't have the best ECCM/ECM deserved to nations which design themselves their systems. India is increasing but weaker than France yet. France has no threat at its border.What matter to be a world power is power projection, global crisis mastering (which mean global reco), industrial and financial potential, quality of armed forces, AND military indigeneous technology!.We spend only 2% of our GDP on defense! See http://www.globaldefence.net/ This site is the only one I know on internet to mention all systems number in an accurate way.German quality I guess.
 
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jhaley    RE:10th grader vs 4th grader? or 10th grader vs 10th grader ?   5/1/2005 9:45:12 AM
Ander320, great post...There are over a half dozen mid weight powers in the world today, with another dozen or so joining the club in the next 40 years. I don't see a true number 2 superpower developing during this time. The next 6 mid powers will rise and fall based more on economics/politics than military power. The future superpower will no longer be one nation like the US, but groups of nations due to strong economic/political/cultural/military ties. US/England/Australia is a world mega power. You might add Japan to the trio except for cultural and political restrictions. The EU would be a distant 2nd at best. If France does not join the EU then the EU becomes just another Mid weight power lacking a global reach. How would you rank the words currency. Dollar first, Pound distant second, Euro third, any other currency with a global acceptance? Regional yes global no! To be a world power you have to have a world currancy?
 
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blitZ    RE:10th grader vs 4th grader? or 10th grader vs 10th grader ?   5/1/2005 10:53:31 AM
nah i wasnt suggesting India has even close to the same projection capability compared to France or technology. i just used it to try to make a point. Ander320 pretty much summed it up for me. thats exactly what i think too.
 
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gixxxerking    What has been decisively shown   5/1/2005 1:15:12 PM
Its is without question that France could not invade or conquer Egypt FS. How will you win a war with a nation 10x more powerful and advanced militarily than Iraq by A country more than 10x less powerful than the US. If Egypt and France had a common border and France increased its military strength especially ground forces to the mandatory 3 to 1 odds then it would be different. But the aim here is not to belittle France, Egypt or any other nation. The objective of this is to rank France as a world power. World power implies force projection capability. No one doubts that France is able to send forces abroad. But Unsupported by NATO the U.N. or the U.S., France would be hard pressed to conduct even a repeat of the Falklands Island conflict. Remember the US did support the U.K. logistically, politically and with some intelligence. So yes France is a regional power. But look at this map: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Fr-map.png With the exception of BELGIUM and Luxembourg. Maybe spain but at huge cost. France could not even defeat its neighbors in an invasion. And Germany is actually still capable of blitzkrieging France with its overwhelming mechanized strength. So while France is a Regional power with limited small force projection capability. It not even the Dominant regional power. Folks thats just telling it like it is.
 
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french stratege    RE:What has been decisively shown   5/1/2005 4:00:42 PM
"And Germany is actually still capable of blitzkrieging France with its overwhelming mechanized strength. So while France is a Regional power with limited small force projection capability. It not even the Dominant regional power" Germany lacks the air force to do that without mentioning nukes. I think (for open minded people) that Egypt with its 213 F16A/C and lacking essential assets in C4ISR and weapons, will not resist to a French offensive based in Chad and Djibouti.As Saudia Arabia (almost same scenario).
 
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french stratege    RE:What has been decisively shown   5/1/2005 4:01:31 PM
"A country more than 10x less powerful than the US": you are kidding!
 
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Ander320    RE:What has been decisively shown   5/1/2005 4:18:16 PM
"A country more than 10x less powerful than the US": you are kidding! " Why would he be kidding? France has surely 10X less nuke 10X less air asset (or not so far) 10X less ship (may be not but as power projection capacity the 10X scale is true) GDP figure? No real idea must be sth like 7X to 8X no? Population 5X. Space asset (satellitte) much more than 10X GPS= no equivalent Army= not sure but with the reserve the 10X figure seems correct.
 
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RM-Nod    RE:What has been decisively shown   5/1/2005 5:23:38 PM
Remember the US did support the U.K. logistically, politically and with some intelligence. Not important but for the sake of national pride I just thought I'd point out that the US provided the delivery of sidewinders and a few satellite images; beyond that there was little. In fact politically the US was pushing for a peaceful settlement. Sorry, just wanted to point that out.
 
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gixxxerking    RM-Nod    5/1/2005 5:28:15 PM
Well you probably know much more about it than me NOD I'm sure but Satellite intel and AIM-9 were very helpful I'm sure you would agree. And your military did a fine job IMO.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:What has been decisively shown   5/1/2005 5:35:51 PM
"Germany lacks the air force to do that without mentioning nukes. I think (for open minded people) that Egypt with its 213 F16A/C and lacking essential assets in C4ISR and weapons, will not resist to a French offensive based in Chad and Djibouti.As Saudia Arabia (almost same scenario)." --FS FS you seem to think airpower alone wins wars. Your Rafales can take off with Leos rolling across the runways. Not to mention MLRS and the huge German airforce. As for Nukes you would be nuking your own soil. And Germany could relatialte by hitting your nuke plants to release radiation. Also you do not have the means to logistically support an Egypt operation so your forces would not last there. Egypt is not as advanced as France but their Airforce is much stronger than what you could deploy and is first class. They also have modern radar, SAMs and AWACs. But most importantly they can deny Sea access to you. The problem is you havent really made much of a plan. You have made an equipment list. I would like to see an equipment list for France vs Vietnam. Obviously being the more technologically advanced party did not give you victory. In fact FS technological advances are a distant fourth to logistics, strategy and training.
 
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