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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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french stratege    RE:Not that I would, But I could, and nobody would expect it.   4/30/2005 6:07:34 PM
"By hugging the North African coast, Egyptian Tu-16 Armed with Kelt Missiles or Free Fall Bombs could Reach Southern France" Here you are ridiculous.These plane are obsolete and France have efficient radar coverage networked.And we have interceptors in France plus awac. In the scenario, 150 Mirage 2000/F1 and 2 AWAC still protect French territory. CdG has also 3E2C to warn any incoming attack. Our fleet is protected by 926 ASTER/CROTALE-NG/SM/Mistral on ramp all able to intercept incoming plane/seaskimmer. Egypt have few harpoon (STYX are obsolete) and CdG will stay away of ground based missiles. our landing fleet in Red sea will have few oppostion as no Egyptian plane will be able still to flight.South of Egypt is well under or Mirage/Rafale range from djibouti without refueling. Egypt SSK are not a threat considering their performance vs our ASW. Our logistic chain is not too long as after landing naval shipping bring fuel and amunition (partly) by sea to Banas cape or even Kosseir to the north. Our air transport bring 4000 tons per day more.Helo can bring as much on shorter distance from ships. As I said landing will occur after almost TOTAL destruction of Egyptian air force and after having softened Egypt ground force. Their tank without air coverage will be only prey in baren land. I would add that crushing Nasser dam would also anihilate Egyptian logistic chain to the south east coast during days if necessary. Egyptian are unable to reiforce their coast in the south, under fire. Opposition in landing would be at level at most of Argentine opposition in Falkland in this area in the best case for them. Every thing depends on winning air battle and I have few doubt on our aility.You have recognized that Egypt is within range of our aircraft from Chad, Corsica and Djibouti and ALSO from helos from Djibouti and Chad. I think that 500 aircraft and 550 helos plus 80 tactical transports will be still enought to achieve our goal.I remember you that we have 5 E2C/E3 plus 4 Horizon in the battle while Egypt have no E2C anymore. You think that US would help but in this scenario US are neutral: indeed we have provided garanty on future of canal, Egypt have previously violated international law (reason of war) and US opinion side France (after seing Egyptian savagery on TV), and we have other means to prevent US to side Egypt (warning US gov secretely that if US side Egypt ,we would sell our best tech to China or North Korea or Iran). I think our superiority is obvious: air superiority, great mobility, close ground base, total superio.rity in C4IST and ECM, strong antitank means (Bonus , helos , AASM etc...), 3 axis of attack while Egyptian can not disperse their force and rely on a single road under attack or flooded. And I would add we do not value a lot Egyptian on warfare since Napoleon to suez 56 or Israel 67.And we know them.
 
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Godofgamblers    congrats gixx, FS, johnboy   4/30/2005 7:32:53 PM
great thread no matter what side you're on. johnboy, i think you're "blowhard" comments are directed at someone else unless i've missed something. gixx's arguments were to the point and professional, whether you agree or disagree with them. none of them was anti-french in the slightest. are you sure you don't wish to alter the subject of your post? i think you've replied to the wrong person...
 
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mithradates    RE:Not that I would, But I could, and nobody would expect it.   4/30/2005 7:35:00 PM
Geez man....look at just the sheer number of Patriot batteries in that country. Even if you knocked out all of their aircrafts(which is damned unlikely) you're still going to be dealing with all the ground based air-defense force. And you actually expect to accomplish all this with 50 planes and 3000 pgms?
 
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ret13f    RE:Not that I would, But I could, and nobody would expect it.   4/30/2005 8:21:55 PM
FS: tell us again how your getting those 500 helicopters the 1500 KM from djibouti to the Egyptian border. and if egyptians only have one road network; how many will you have; and the eastern desert isn't really flat as you believe; you would be better off trying Libya, and noone would mind.
 
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french stratege    RE:Not that I would, But I could, and nobody would expect it.   4/30/2005 9:59:13 PM
We have made some manoeuver where our airmobile brigade cross meditarranean sea using ship as relay. We have 4 LSD able to receive 4 to 8 helo on deck plus 3 LPH with a total of 43 helos.Grand total of roughly 80 helos (including other ship) can be transported on the ships.The first wave doing air assaalt in weak defended area.Then 1 or 2 LPH are used as relay base to refuel helo from Djibouti. 300 helos are used on red sea side.Other come from Chad. Lybia: If you sea the map , you will notice that between Chad and Egypt there is only a band of either Lybian or Sudanese desert without any close Lybian/Sudanese base.None of these governement would react as they can say forces did not transit on their territory but on their neigbour one.BTW Sudanese don't like Egyptian as Lybian. Both countries were close to war with Egypt in last decade for frontier problems.And none of them would like to be integrated in French bombing plan. We can go either via Lybia or Sudan in this region where boundaries are not even well defined. On Patriot: few year ago a test falcon 20 (not a fighter aircraft!) from dassault try or last version of jammer pod in Capo Teulada in Sardignia where the test plane pass at few km of a German Patriot battery undetected! Patriot radar start to be a little old!And I guess that Egyptians one have not the best ECCM software. You have seen efficiency of SAM in Iraq. Or M2000D/Rafale use interfermotirc detector combined with Flir Lase pod to identify at 50 km Radar then perform their SEAD mission. Moreover we don't use 50 aircraft but 100 M2000C/5, 70 Rafale, 120 M2000, 50 SuperEtendard, 60 Jaguar (reserve reactivated), 110 Mirage F1CT, 5 E3F/E2C, 200 Transport helos, 350 combat/armed light reco helos. Armée de l'air airfields in Chad, Djibouti, Corsica.CdG CVN either in mediterranée or Red sea 6/500 km south of Egypt near Erithrean coast, 40 fighters on board and 2E2C.Third one in Chad or Djibouti.E3F in corsica, Chad or Djibouti. BTW Erithrée could be maybe used as platform as they need money and support from France. On our armor I checked and we have currently 377 Leclerc and 433 AMX30B2 updated with active armor (most in reserve).So a potential of 800 tank.+AMX10 RC good in desert by its speed as first gulf war has shown where it did a fair job vs T55/62. If you are logical you would notice that if Egyptian E2C are lost , Egytian airdefense and airforce is out and the war win by us.After it is only pigeon shooting .Check detailled road map of Egypt and explain me how Egyptian forces (presently located in nile Delta and Suez) can protect both south Sudan border coast and south Lybia border coast in a region where Egyptian road are limited and come via Nile river valley.
 
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french stratege    RE:Not that I would, But I could, and nobody would expect it.   4/30/2005 10:02:41 PM
A good thing agaisnt Egyptian air force is to deploy a Nostradamus OTH radar in Djibouti of Chad to track and locate Egyptian E2C.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Not that I would, But I could, and nobody would expect it.   4/30/2005 11:38:10 PM
FS to even make this disastrous operation possible you have to properly support it. If you are going to dismiss everything because of technology then this excersise has reached the margin of diminishing returns. Those SSK's you blow off and the OSA missile boats have your Navy in an impossible situation. KKeep in mind I DO THINK YOU CAN FIGHT THROUGH THEM. BUt you will lose several warships and cargo ships in the process which will cancel any invasion attempt. Your operation required every thing to work just right. And even then it is not enough to overpower Egyptian defence. You speek of 800 tanks. Egypt has almost 800 Abrams alone. You speak of air TOTAL superiority. Egypt has over 500 fighters and many are modern advanced types with combat history and proven technology. Also you cannot just wake up and build a OTH radar in Djibouti. South of Egypt is 800+ miles away from Djibouti. So that is a range problem for your tactical aircraft. YOu can forget about helo's from there. Also there is Patriot and SA-6 in Egypt. You do not have the numbers or SEAD assets to deal with them. And only in your wildest dreams would the US back down to French threats. There is a history of that in Iraq. I think GWB told Chirac to go pound sand.
 
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gixxxerking    in range   4/30/2005 11:47:14 PM
"You have recognized that Egypt is within range of our aircraft from Chad, Corsica and Djibouti and ALSO from helos from Djibouti and Chad."--fs In range of your C-130's...lol
 
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blitZ    10th grader vs 4th grader? or 10th grader vs 10th grader ?   5/1/2005 3:23:40 AM
ok FS, its easy to pick on some weak, ill trained force like Egypt and then clamour about your strength. hell, ill say India is more powerful than France, we can obliterate Pakistan. even take on China to a stalemate at the least, and thats when they are right next to out borders. tell me, could France take on China if they were right next to each other ?? so to prove that France is realy a power, you gotta prove that France can take on a real power. like US had the ability to take on the Soviet behemoth. the US of A is not considered a superpower because they have beaten Iraq, they are the super power because they could beat the USSR, and every real power there is. Does France has the power to take on Germany ??? i read your criterea for a world power, but you missed some important points, some points that are most important than anything else. like how will your army fare in a war of attrition against a real power. you see, behind all that glitz of equipment, lies the very basic needs. to protect the homeland, can France protect itself against a German invasion ?? to me, thats what defines power. a 10th grader picking on a 4th grader, nah, prove your mettle against a 10th grader, and only then, will you earn respect.
 
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Ander320    RE:10th grader vs 4th grader? or 10th grader vs 10th grader ?   5/1/2005 6:40:57 AM
Does France has the power to take on Germany ??? I think so. Germany has a much bigger and better equiped land force but lack the full spectrum of air power (awacs) So yes France could take on Germany in a hypothetic scenario. But the odd would be sth like a 55/45 'cause the french thin air advantage would be confronted by a much larger army and conscription ability by the german. The wild card being that Berlin would be glass if ever the german went deeper than a hundred kilomters in french territory. As for the actual power of France. Someone with a realistic view would rank the power like this : USA . . . . . . . The rest being medium power. Some of them with huge regionnal power and potential(India/China/Russia)and other with more a econnomical or technical power than a real military capacity (Japan, Germany, France, UK...). Other country have also real potential on regionnal level like Brasil, South Africa, Australia... The fact about power is how can you use it. If your power can't gave you an edge other than protect your national territory your not really a power. If you can influence and put your diplomatic weight out of your border to defend your interrest your a "power". But only the USA have a global reach and capacity to throw is weight everywhere and even them face much more limitation that what most people would agrea. The USA without hurting is economy and population (conscription) won't be able today to face Iran,Irak and North Korea at the same time. Too much involvement in too many place would quickly lead to exaustion for them.
 
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