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Subject: China to invade taiwan in 2010 or 2011
Gladiator    4/1/2005 12:48:16 PM
China's entire military machine is dedicated towards the invasion of Taiwan. China's 5 year military modernization plan will soon reach a creshendo. If China invades Taiwan today (2005) it will suffer nearly 600,000 casualties in its initial invasion and nearly another 500,000 losses in conquering Taiwan. Nearly 1/2 every two Chinese soldier invading Taiwan will die or be wounded. China has an unlimited supply of man power but the losses in equipement will be so heavy that it will be unable to sustain any attack on Taiwan for long, especially after US starts supplying Taiwan with weaponry. Taiwan has a very powerful Army, Navy and Air Force. CHINESE STRATEGY: 2011 INVASION OF TAIWAN Any Invasion of Taiwan will require a defeat of Taiwan's Air Force. This has to be achieved within the first few hours. China's only option is to saturate Taiwanese Air Space with Chinese Bombers and Air Force. That even though Taiwan will shoot down over 1,000 Chinese Planes, Taiwan will it self loose its supply of Air-to-air Missiles, and many of the Runways will be unservicable for fighter Aircraft. China even though will lose around 1,000 Air Craft, will have enough in reserve to sustain groud support for the invasion and give air cover to its naval task force. USA will not directly engage the Chinese Military. But supplies from Japan and South Korea such as F-16, F-15 Fighters, Aegis Warships could reach Taiwan in time to thwart any Chinese Invasion. Taiwan's ground Army is quite powerful. China will suffer massive casualties in its invasion. China's strategy will be to invade close to Taipei. By Invading close to Taipei and hoping that chinese tanks can withstand the punishment of Taiwan's feared anti-tank forces and the remaining Taiwanese fighters that it can soon cut off Taipei from the rest of Taiwan. Once that is done, it can re-augment its forces and establish a naval blockade around the northern half of Taiwan. USA will be forced to take the longer road to re-supply Taiwan from the South. China hopes to use this time to launch rapid armored thrusts deep into southern Taiwan and the continued arrival of Chinese Infantry. China hopes to use human waves attack to overwhelm the Taiwanese defenders and finally defeat them. TAIWANESE/USA STRATEGY: The US 7th Fleet is one of the most powerful Naval Forces in the World. Any build up of Chinese forces in the strait of Taiwan, the USA will soon be alerted of the impeding invasion of Taiwan. China will hope to mask their intent by engaging many war games. So that any build up chinese forces in the Taiwan strait will look like a war game. The Taiwanese air-force is quite powerful and will shoot down many chinese fighters if they cross into Taiwanese Air Space. As Soon as Chinese Planes have been detected, USA will rush supplies to Taiwan. Meaning F-16, F-15, F-18. USA will not directly engage the Chinese Forces but give enough armaments to Taiwan to stop the Chinese Invasion. USA naval forces will not engage the Chinese naval forces but instead will augment the Taiwanese ground amry with enough Abrams Battle Tanks, Bradley Fighting Vehicles. USA will even transfer control of several warships into Taiwanese control so that they can engage the Chinese Invasion Task Force. Chinese overwhelmingly numerical superiority will be hard to defeat. The only hope that Taiwan has to defeat the Chinese invading force on the beaches. USA has one of the fastest supply responese time in the world. B-52 bombers and C-130 will rapidly give Taiwan enough weapons to defeat any Chinese Invasion.
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displacedjim    RE:China to invade taiwan in 2010 or 2011   4/1/2005 3:04:32 PM
I have significant difficulty believing we will transfer arms to Taiwan in any large numbers, at least not of any weapon systems types that the ROC doesn't already use. Thus, while I could see giving or selling them some F-16s during a war is possible, I do not think we would give or sell them any F-15s during a war. Likewise for ships and ground forces equipment; only more of something they already use in their own military now. Displacedjim
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Gladiator    RE:China to invade taiwan in 2010 or 2011   4/1/2005 3:15:31 PM
I think US/Taiwan plan is to supply Taiwan with enough Missile Defense Systems that the entire Invasion Force of china can be destroyed or damaged enough so that any invasion is futile. Taiwan could get F-15 or F-14 or even F-16 and F-18. USA supplied Israel with Phantoms during the Yom-Kippur War in 1973 so why not Taiwan?
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gixxxerking    RE:China to invade taiwan in 2010 or 2011   4/1/2005 3:32:52 PM
There will be no time for supplying Taiwan with weapons in any future conflict. China will either achieve a very rapid victory and utterly annialate Taiwan. Or they will be blunted and the futility of further hostility will be obvious enough that they either resort to nuclear weapons(most dangerous course of action) or accept defeat and withdraw with their military mostly intact(most likely course of action) IMO.
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JCT    Transfer of F15s to Taiwan during a war   4/1/2005 4:43:29 PM
You can't supply someone with a weapons system they have never used before and expect them to use it effectively. The Taiwanese pilots doing their first check ride in an F-15 would be easy meat for a Chinese Mig-21 (or their variant). The Taiwanese pilot would be trying to figure out the pit while the Mig shot him down. Unfortunately, no two pit layouts are alike - training is required to become effective with new layouts and new sensors/weapons/flight controls. I would hate to be the lone Navy carrier in those waters during the first hours of the war. It would be tough to make a dent in China's assault and survive until reinforcements arrived.
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Gladiator    Why isnt USA supplying better weapons to Taiwan?   4/1/2005 5:02:57 PM
why isnt the USA supplying better weapons to the Taiwanese Army? It seems to me that if USA is a beacon of democracy, it should protect Taiwan, a democracy from a communist state like China?
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USN-MID    RE:Why isnt USA supplying better weapons to Taiwan?   4/1/2005 5:12:38 PM
B/c as stated in the threat "should taiwan be doing more to protect itself," we can't without offending China, who is a big trading partner. Or just happens to be a major regional power period. They get pissy everytime the subject comes up, like selling Taiwan AEGIS or AMRAAM, which are key systems for dealing with massed attacks.
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doggtag    what china doesn't seem to be considering   4/1/2005 5:15:43 PM
The real question here is, if china ammasses such a large percentage of its forces to participate in a Taiwan grab, what are the odds that china's neighbors, who may not have the most friendly ties, take it upon themnselves to reshape the chinese border in some areas? Peasant farmers aside, this would present an ideal solution for neighboring countries to make a land grab, or just stir up and cause trouble...testing the waters, so to speak. And with chinese forces ammassing against the US-supported "Asian Coalition", there may not be sufficient chinese military strength, after all the attrition, to ward off other neighboring countries' excursions into chinese territory. What happens when terrorist groups hiding out in a neighboring country decide to raid and pillage chinese towns and cities near their borders? With no defenses in said areas, beijing may lose considerable support from its nation's citizens: why follow leaders who cannot guarantee your safety? Anybody have any numbers/statistics on what percentage of china's important natural resources lie in close proximity to its borders with neighbors who may seize the opportunity to "acquire" those resources? And most likely, china would need a considerable stockpile of all the resources it imports, because many countries may find themselves having to yield to certain international political interests and cease their commerce with china. Such an unexpected occurrence could bankrupt china so quickly (losing its international markets), little or nothing would've been gained in all the hardware and personnel losses incurred in a Taiwan invasion. Things like this make one wonder of the mentalities of men who make wars: at the expense of what may be lost, is the prize worth winning? What good is a "unified" china, if it no longer has the military or economic resources, or the willing manpower, to stand against any future aggressors?
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doggtag    Taiwan could get F-15 or F-14 or even F-16 and F-18   4/1/2005 5:19:18 PM
Now THERE'S a good idea: take all the Tomcats the USN is retiring, and their Phoenix missiles (which should prove highly effective against chinese air transports and bombers) and give them to Taiwan (yet another aid package...) The Tomcat's radar range (and Phoenix range) would certainly give a serious advantage over anything china can muster.
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doggtag    china is a big trading partner only because   4/1/2005 5:27:16 PM
...of one thing: cheap labor. Considering the investments (how much exactly in US funds?) that went into making china what it is, we could just as effectively invest in cheap labor markets in other countries of the world: Iraq and Afghanistan are struggling to rebuild. And surely several financially-troubled African nations with any amount of coastal territory would appreciate the massive inrush of resources that would come with a new industrialization period. Big-budget world corporations won't stand for china's body politic interfering with their profit margins. Too much government interference (whether unintentional or not), and those countries could ship their jobs away from china's shores just as quickly as they shipped them off of America's shores.
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bobfall2005    RE:China to invade taiwan in 2010 or 2011   4/1/2005 10:48:15 PM
My guess is that China will make a military move, for Taiwan. I know they would like to wait till 2010-2020, but politics drive military choices. I think they will move sooner, under 5 years. As to how much the US will get involved, that depends on at least, 4 things. 1.The leadership at that time. The current President will most likely, jump in with both feet. Not too many questions asked. The next might not. 2. Does China launch an attack on US forces, thinking they will join Taiwan, or do they not attack US forces, hopeing the US will stay out? An attack on US forces, will force almost any US president into the fight. If they do not attack, US forces, a more liberal president might stay out of a fight. 3. Does China have allies that will fight with them. The Russians hold joint military manuevers with China. Does that mean the Russians will risk war with the US? If so, will the US risk war with the Russians for Taiwan? 4. Does the US have allies that will join the fight for Taiwan? Japan, South Korea, Other? Japan is having a lot of heart burn about North Korea and China. And Japan is begining a huge expansion of their military. With the current US president, I would guess, the US would be in the fight directly, from the start. Because of that, I expect a massive attack on US forces. Pearl Harbor style, only bigger. The US has a lot of assets in that part of the world, right now. Not just Naval, but a very large commitment from the Air Force. And some other folks running around there, too. If China wants to take Taiwan, they have to deal with these US forces. Also, Most likely, China will not move against Taiwan without direct Russian military help. If they go after Taiwan, soon, expect a massive attack on US forces. And expect Russian help. Lets say,I'm wrong. No Russian help, No US help for Taiwan. Than the best guess is that Taiwan will fold in under 2 weeks. If they last longer than a week, they are doing very well. A lot of Taiwan is barren rocks or cliffs. Almost all of the key targets are packed together. The attack will come as a surprise, if possible. The Chiness Air Force is not going to go head to head with the Taiwan AF. Most of the Taiwan AF, will get caught on the ground. SSM's will be raining down on Taiwan's airfields and cratering them. Accurate stikes against shelters will finish off most of Taiwan's AF. Their C3I systems will be pounded by those same SSM's. Along with airdefense and ground bases. After the 1st wave of SSM's, come the Chinese AF. In the best of times they would have a 3 or 4 to 1 numerical advantage, and this will not be the best of times for the Taiwan AF. Most of them will be caught on the ground. Expect 10 or more to 1 numberical advantage. My guess they will have air Superority over Taiwan within a day and they will keep it. While the China's AF is over Taiwan, those SSM's are reloading for 2nd wave of strikes. After China has Air Superortiy, expect massive airborne and airmoble landings over 3-5 days. An amphibious landing will move out when the attack starts. Taiwan's navy will be shadowed and sunk by 1-2 days. They will hurt China, but not enough to stop the landings. With some new shore bombardment systems that China has, I believe the landings will be completed. Than it is all over but the crying. Not a pleasant scenairo, but a realistic one, I think. Bob And my guess is, that China will not currently go after Taiwan without direct Russian military help.
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