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Subject: Morocco vs Spain
Tercio    2/25/2004 4:04:56 PM
A "What if" scenario. War between Morocco and Spain, Morocco hits first. In order to consider only a Morocco vs Spain engagement, it is assumed that Morocco manage to avoid Nato enters the war (for instance, Morocco focus its military operations in Spanish enclaves in North Africa: Ceuta, Melilla et al. Since they are not covered by Nato agreements, Nato has not to automatically join Spain in the fight). What do you think about the following?: - Who would win?. - Which strategy would adopt each one?. - Which support would have each one?. - Who would take advantage of this war?. - Could this conflict scalate from regional to something bigger?. - What secondary effects would have this conflict in other topics: war on terrorism, UN, EU...? Regards.
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Desert Rat    RE:Morocco vs Spain   2/26/2004 3:37:33 AM
I think that Spain would win, but it might not be easy. I'm sure Spain could count on some help from other European nations, but Morocco probably wouldn't get much support ( who wants to take on Spain and possibly Britain, France and the rest of European Nato?) The U.S. would certainly give its moral support and maybe contribute some force, but i doubt it. They probably wouldn't want to get involved too much. I don't think it would escalate into anything too big, but it would be fairly intense; probably be on a scale comparable to the Falklands conflict between Argentina and Gt. Brit. Commandoes would undoubtedly be used extensively, since it would be impractical to use large numbers of troops around in small areas. The air war would be big, since Spain and Morocco are so close together and are both equiped with at least farily modern aircraft, and the Spannish Navy may well take a beating from Morrocon missiles ( us Brits learnt that in the Falkalands, missiles are really difficult to counter). I think the real consequences would be a much stronger EU, with the motivation to forge more joint military capabilities and definatley a big budget increase for spannish military branches! Hope these views answer your question, Desert Rat
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Tercio    RE:Morocco vs Spain   2/26/2004 10:45:54 AM
Sure!, those views are quite illustrative. Thanks!, Tercio
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northernguy    RE:Morocco vs Spain   2/27/2004 8:25:08 PM
If such a conflict came to acquire symbolic value in the Arab/muslim world it could get a little dicy for Spain. What if Morocco showed up with a hundred thousand volunteers. Assuming Spain was not being actively supported by NATO or the E.U. (and they might not be supported in fighting to keep possessions in continental Africa) then Spain would run out of ammunition for it's modern weapons before Morocco ran out of willing fighters. The humiliation of the loss of the Moorish Empire is a constantly running theme in Islamo-fascist discourse. If they can't beat America and they surely haven't been able to, at least they could beat Spain. How many thousands of lives would Spain be prepared to lose to keep possessions of little real value. Ten, fifty, a hundred thousand? How many billions of dollars would Spain spend to keep those little pieces of land. Ten, fifty, a hundred billion? Remember, to win, all Morocco has to do is make Spain go away! For Spain to win, they more or less have to conquer Morocco. Northernguy
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1stcavman    RE:Morocco vs Spain   2/27/2004 8:43:32 PM
I think Spain wins but at what cost. Spain has troops trained to respond to such a scenario who are quite good. NATO involves itself if for example Morrocco becomes a radical Islamic state along the lines of Iran. I cannot see Europe wanting that type of state on it's doorstep. But for Spain, after winning, what do they hold and is it worth holding.
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Worcester    RE:Morocco vs Spain   2/29/2004 8:16:27 PM
Where do you draw the line in Morocco? Isn't there a traditonal Spanish Foreign Legion? Does it still exist and wasn't it based in Morocco?
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Worcester    RE:Morocco vs Spain   2/29/2004 8:17:49 PM
I'm having trouble getting a Moorish order of battle. Do they have one? Time was the uS was also an ally of Morocco - when we based bombers there - and I'm not sure how we'd react. Now, if you'd said Spain vs. Libya!
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Tercio    RE:Morocco vs Spain   3/1/2004 11:17:24 AM
That Morocco vs Spain came to my mind after reading some articles about the Parsley island incident two years ago. At that time Morocco placed some troops there and Spain re-took the island some days later, without a single shot. In the meantime EU was not able to arrive to a common position (Italy and others supported Spain, France vetoed any iniciative to support explictly Spain due to its strong ties with the king of Morocco). Once Spain had retaken the island US, which didn't want a conflict between to of its allies in the war of terrorism (both Morocco and Spain have scored some success seizing Al-Qaeda terrorists), managed an arrange which meant a come back to the original status, that is, Parsley island it's still on dispute, but no one has troops there. About the Spanish enclaves in North Africa, some of them are esentially worthless (Parsley itself, for instance), but Ceuta and Melilla have roughly 70000 inhabitants each, and they are not particularly interested in becoming Moroccan citizens, so Spain has strong reasons to fight. Spain has deployed in Ceuta: 1 Spanish Foreign Legion Regiment 1 Regulares (Light infantry, similar to the Spanish Foreing Legion). 1 Armor Regiment 1 Artillery Regiment The units deployed in Melilla are roughly similar. Spain has also troops, fighters and ships in Canary island, apart of the units in the mainland. Tercio
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Landser1944    RE:Morocco vs Spain   3/1/2004 2:53:32 PM
A war like this could only be started by marocco and that means the NATO would react immidiatly, it would be a desaster for marocco.
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Aussiegunner    RE:Morocco vs Spain   3/2/2004 2:19:07 PM
I've been reading listings of the Moroccan and Spanish air force and navy strengths and types of equipment. Are the Spanish enclaves within range of Morrocan land-based air? If they were, then the Morrocans wouldn't have a chance in the air, as their airforce is about a quarter of the size of Spains and is far less advanced. If it weren't, it would be left up to Spains 16 Harriers, a far better match for Morroco with about 50 F-1's and F-5's. At sea, the Spanish are completely dominant. The Morrocan navy doesn't even have submarines, so couldn't mount a decent interdiction effort.
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northernguy    RE:Morocco vs Spain   3/2/2004 5:18:05 PM
The disparity in size of air and sea resources between Morocco and Spain are irrelevant for the reasons that I mentioned in my previous post. Spain is severely disadavantaged from a strategic point of view. You have to do more than count ships or planes to get around that! Northernguy
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