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Subject: Israel Exposed
free_man 12    4/15/2010 10:37:47 AM
With the current US Administration changing its tune and possibly curbing its military support for Israel, would Israel be exposed in another shooting war with Hezbollah, considering the Hezbos improved arsenal (scuds, etc...), assuming the US does not re-arm Israel or provide intelligence? In addition, would the cold shoulder given by Obama embolden other countries (i.e., Syria and/or Iran) to overtly join in a conventional war? Now, I am not talking about Hezbollah capturing Israeli territory or "winning a war", but I am referring to the possibility of mass damage and casualties inside Israel and its largest cities; in effect bloodying Israel really badly.
 
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Nichevo    G-d forbid.   4/15/2010 12:24:36 PM
Though what I suspect would happen is that Israel would have to use much less precise methods leading to far higher enemy (and/or civilian if you see a difference) casualties.  Maybe that's not so bad.
 
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free_man 12    Even Worse   4/15/2010 12:30:31 PM
That would then even further distance US support and embolden others to take up the fight.  I don't even see a short term gain using that strategy.
 
I think Israel would have to cave in to US/Europe demands for consessions on East Jerusalem/West Bank/Right of Return etc.. and only then would the US offer to "help"...
 
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Nichevo       4/15/2010 1:04:08 PM
I think that if you killed half the Arabs the other half would run away or do what you told them.  I think the number is much less than half.  We just have to figure out what the Turks did to control them, and do that.
 
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Shirrush    Israel Exposed   4/15/2010 3:51:23 PM
Well, that is what's happening. This is also why the "peace process" is stalled. The Palestinians seem to be waiting for the Iranians to make their move, and in the meantime, engaging Israel in a negotiation in which they might have to compromise is simply not required of them. After all, according to the State Dept. and  the Quartet, the Palestinian Baby Seals can do no wrong, and it's all the settler's fault.
 Syria is equipping the Hezzies with Scud missiles. According to menapress.org, they're trying to sit out the war between Israel and Iran by fulfilling their treaty obligations with the Mullahs outside their borders, and are probably happy to rid themselves of a weapon system notorious for killing its operators.
Turkey is squarely siding with our enemies and Washington keeps mum on this. In case of an all-out war, I can see Erdogan ordering troops into Syria, and that means we're done with! Hopefully, this happens before the Turks have a cool hundred F35's buzzing around in our skies.
We're heading to war, having lost the "friend of the USA" component of our perceptual deterrent. I do not see much of an effort by the IDF or the Bibiyahu to find some new and creative rags to dress our scarecrow with, so I guess that yes, the wolves have smelled our blood, and they are a-circling.  
 
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VelocityVector    Shirrush   4/15/2010 4:57:20 PM

What soured Israeli-Turkish collaboration?  Expansionist views by Turk leadership?  Quiet coup?  For years, it appeared that relations between the two countries were strengthening.  Curious.

v^2

 
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jaythehistorian       4/17/2010 10:10:36 AM

With the current US Administration changing its tune and possibly curbing its military support for Israel, would Israel be exposed in another shooting war with Hezbollah, considering the Hezbos improved arsenal (scuds, etc...), assuming the US does not re-arm Israel or provide intelligence? In addition, would the cold shoulder given by Obama embolden other countries (i.e., Syria and/or Iran) to overtly join in a conventional war? Now, I am not talking about Hezbollah capturing Israeli territory or "winning a war", but I am referring to the possibility of mass damage and casualties inside Israel and its largest cities; in effect bloodying Israel really badly.

Israel doesn't need US assistance to decimate Syria ,Iran and Hezbollah. If anything the US protects these 3 terrorist entities from the full might of the IDF. Obama who is a muslim and clearly a Jew hater , is actually harming his brother Jihadists. While G W Bush was much friendlier superficially , in reality , he restrained Israel's response to the Muslim terrorist provoked war of 2006 and in the end saved Hezbollah.  Each day the Muslim fool in the WH shows he is an enemy of Israel convinces PM Netanyahu and all (except self hating ultra left wing) Israeli Jews, to listen to the US gov't is suicidal.
 
Israel plans to the coming war to punishment Syria and all of Lebanon for allowing these terrorist Hezbollah to even one Scud. Assad of Syria has been saved until now by the Jew haters in the White House. Israel was about to bomb a Syrian convoy transporting Scuds to the Hezbollah but was only stopped by the WH.  Each day that passes, causes US citizens and their representatives to put distance between the Muslim POTUS' policies on Israel and their own.
 
Israel doesn't need US intelligence nor resupply . This is not 1973. Israel is the world leader in UAV technology and has launched a number of it's own satellites which provide Israel with real time intelligence. Israeli satellites have maximum refraction capability possible. 
 
 Scuds are not even close to Iran's top missile in capability. They are more light 2010 version of Hitler's V2. Israel's Arrow 3 will shoot down most if not all of the Scuds. If any Scuds are launched, Damascus and Beirut will be bombed, ,putting immediate pressure on Hezbollah.  So your scenario is very unlikely.
 

 
 
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jaythehistorian       4/17/2010 10:24:53 AM

That would then even further distance US support and embolden others to take up the fight.  I don't even see a short term gain using that strategy.

 

I think Israel would have to cave in to US/Europe demands for consessions on East Jerusalem/West Bank/Right of Return etc.. and only then would the US offer to "help"...


The only weapon system Israel can't manufacture itself nor easily buy from another nation besides the US is a top of the line Jet fighter. The JSF 35 will not be available to 2014. So Israel's relationship with the US actually causes harm to Israel at present. I've spoken to active duty US army service members who have served in Iraq and Afghanistan who have told me , they consider the US military's relationship with Israel as an equal partnership. All of the US and small contingents of allied troops absolutely depend on UAVs and other items and devices some of which they buy from Israel.
 
 Your assertions are absolutely absurd.
 
 
 
I
 
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jaythehistorian       4/17/2010 10:28:26 AM



With the current US Administration changing its tune and possibly curbing its military support for Israel, would Israel be exposed in another shooting war with Hezbollah, considering the Hezbos improved arsenal (scuds, etc...), assuming the US does not re-arm Israel or provide intelligence? In addition, would the cold shoulder given by Obama embolden other countries (i.e., Syria and/or Iran) to overtly join in a conventional war? Now, I am not talking about Hezbollah capturing Israeli territory or "winning a war", but I am referring to the possibility of mass damage and casualties inside Israel and its largest cities; in effect bloodying Israel really badly.



Israel doesn't need US assistance to decimate Syria ,Iran and Hezbollah. If anything the US protects these 3 terrorist entities from the full might of the IDF. Obama who is a muslim and clearly a Jew hater , is actually harming his brother Jihadists. While G W Bush was much friendlier superficially , in reality , he restrained Israel's response to the Muslim terrorist provoked war of 2006 and in the end saved Hezbollah.  Each day the Muslim fool in the WH shows he is an enemy of Israel convinces PM Netanyahu and all (except self hating ultra left wing) Israeli Jews, to listen to the US gov't is suicidal.

 

Israel plans to the coming war to punishment Syria and all of Lebanon for allowing these terrorist Hezbollah to even one Scud. Assad of Syria has been saved until now by the Jew haters in the White House. Israel was about to bomb a Syrian convoy transporting Scuds to the Hezbollah but was only stopped by the WH.  Each day that passes, causes US citizens and their representatives to put distance between the Muslim POTUS' policies on Israel and their own.

 

Israel doesn't need US intelligence nor resupply . This is not 1973. Israel is the world leader in UAV technology and has launched a number of it's own satellites which provide Israel with real time intelligence. Israeli satellites have maximum refraction capability possible. 

 

 Scuds are not even close to Iran's top missile in capability. They are more light 2010 version of Hitler's V2. Israel's Arrow 3 will shoot down most if not all of the Scuds. If any Scuds are launched, Damascus and Beirut will be bombed, ,putting immediate pressure on Hezbollah.  So your scenario is very unlikely.


 





 
Sorry for the numerous grammatical errors. This board needs a "preview comment" option as well as an "edit" option.
 
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jaythehistorian       4/17/2010 10:36:22 AM

Well, that is what's happening. This is also why the "peace process" is stalled. The Palestinians seem to be waiting for the Iranians to make their move, and in the meantime, engaging Israel in a negotiation in which they might have to compromise is simply not required of them. After all, according to the State Dept. and  the Quartet, the Palestinian Baby Seals can do no wrong, and it's all the settler's fault.

 Syria is equipping the Hezzies with Scud missiles. According to menapress.org, they're trying to sit out the war between Israel and Iran by fulfilling their treaty obligations with the Mullahs outside their borders, and are probably happy to rid themselves of a weapon system notorious for killing its operators.

Turkey is squarely siding with our enemies and Washington keeps mum on this. In case of an all-out war, I can see Erdogan ordering troops into Syria, and that means we're done with! Hopefully, this happens before the Turks have a cool hundred F35's buzzing around in our skies.


We're heading to war, having lost the "friend of the USA" component of our perceptual deterrent. I do not see much of an effort by the IDF or the Bibiyahu to find some new and creative rags to dress our scarecrow with, so I guess that yes, the wolves have smelled our blood, and they are a-circling.  



As I mentioned the JSF 35 will not be available until 2014. By then, Obama will be out of the WH replaced by a republican who will not sell the JSF 35 to Turkey but will sell it to Israel. Even if the unimaginable happens and Obama is reelected , the Senate and US House will be either controlled by the republicans or will be much more Israel friendly than today with Harry "Punch drunk" Reid and Nancy "100 face lifts" Pelosi no longer in charge.
 
Israel absolutely will never allow the terrorist thug Assad to "sit out" any war. Syria and all of Lebanon will pay dearly if one Scud is launched against Israel.
 
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Shirrush    jaythehistorian   4/17/2010 1:09:22 PM
You're wildly overestimating Israel's military might. The Arrow III ABM does not exist, and when it does, it will be mostly manufactured by skilled and hardworking Alabamans in the Boeing factories, just like the presently-fielded Arrow II. There are two batteries of Arrow, and no more than a few dozens of these horribly expensive munitions are available for them. On the other hand, there are thousands of Scud and other ballistic missiles in the Syrian and Iranian arsenals.
Israel is a small country, which has a small and not very professional people's militia in guise of a military. As such, its best course has always been to avoid going to war unless attacked, and to make sure it has powerful friends. The new strategic lineup has Israel alone against  the most powerful Muslim countries in the region, and the US rapidly distancing themselves from any commitment to its security, independence, or even existence. The strongest regional power, the one with the most modern air force, a one million-strong ground component and a large, competent navy, has made clear that it is not Israel's friend and ally anymore, and that it may in fact make good on a defense cooperation agreement it has recently signed with Syria.
Europe, Israel's #1 commercial and economic partner, is neither an ally nor is it militarily significant.
 
'Abd-Allah the Jordanian kinglet is warning of the possibility of a Middle-East war next summer. If he is anything like his regretted dad, he is probably not just crying wolf, and he probably knows a thing or two about how things work in the region.
 
The Israeli polity is wonderfully oblivious of these developments. Nature, evolution, or the Almighty, have granted prey animals the mercy of numbness when they are in the predator's maw, and this is the best explanation I can find for the absence of the panic which characterized the days that preceded the June 1967 war, where it was clear to all that the odds were very, very much against Israel. In those days, however, war preparations were on everyone's mind, and this is not the case today: life goes on, and it is not bad at all with the economy booming and the women prettier than ever...
 
So here we are, hoping for the best and enjoying whatever little time we have left. This may even work, as Obama and his Third-Worldist ideology are steadily losing ground in the US, Erdogan's Islamism is far from being unanimously supported by the Turkish people and its armed forces, and the ballsy Iranians may even surprise us by overthrowing the fascist regime that oppresses them before any such war breaks out.
More importantly, Israel will become a significant player in the Oil & Gas geopolitical game sometime in the next year. This might make Israel's most acerbic critics in the West forget some of the Palestinian's cuteness and develop an entirely new fondness for Zion, and somehow yank Israel from under the wheels of that proverbial bus.
 
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