Military History | How To Make War | Wars Around the World Rules of Use How to Behave on an Internet Forum
Armed Forces of the World Discussion Board
   Return to Topic Page
Subject: Lithuanian/Polish/Ukrainian Increased Cooperation
singularity    11/19/2009 12:37:06 PM
Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine are forming are forming a three way international peacekeeping brigade called LITPOLUKRBRIG. According to the Telegraph (UK newspaper), the strength may range from 2,000-5,000 soldiers. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/6589547/Lithuania-Poland-and-Ukraine-create-a-joint-military-brigade.html). According to RIA Novosti (Russian newspaper), this is the second combined battalion between Poland and Ukraine and the paper claims other countries can apparently join the agreement. It appears that Poland and Lithuania are attempting to integrate Ukraine further into NATO and Europe, despite (and perhaps because of) the hesitation by France,Germany and some others. I think further integration/alliances between Ukraine, Poland and the other Central and Eastern European countries offers increased protection against Russian influence or even attack. This got me thinking about this scenario: What would occur if Russia and Ukraine have another spat over gas deliveries and Ukraine attempts to kick out the Russian fleet from Crimea? If this escalated to an armed conflict (non-nuclear), and Poland, Lithuania (and perhaps Czech Republic, Slovakia, Estonia and Latvia) came to the aid of Ukraine against Russia (which would probably have the support of Belarus), what would their odds be? I am assuming the other NATO members such as US, France, Germany do not interfere because they are either tied down or do not want to protect countries freedoms because of the chance of losing Russian "business". How long could these countries last? Could they take Kalingrad and deny the Russians a foothold? How long would it take for these countries to develop nukes (Ukraine had some stationed on its land before it disarmed).
 
Quote    Reply

Show Only Poster Name and Title     Newest to Oldest
Pages: PREV  1 2 3 4 5 6 7   NEXT
Knjaz       12/2/2009 11:27:24 AM


I still cant think up how invasion into South-Eastern Ukraine  (Novorossiya, New Russia in translation)...

....can be justified...

(Although, now i see it can be in case of Civil war... but no civil war in original scenario.)
 
Quote    Reply

Knjaz       12/2/2009 11:44:52 AM
1 more scenario (short, goes like addition to previous one) - after Russia taking Ukraine, Poland decides to continue fighting no matter what, despite the fact that Russia will be calling for ceasefire. In this case - yes, "best air defense - our tanks on enemy airbases". But in this scenario i guess Germany will be trying to force Poland to stop shooting, because they dont want Russian tanks in Poland, and we dont want war with NATO over a land and country we have no interest in (only as a transit)

 
Quote    Reply

Lance Blade    realistic scenario   12/2/2009 12:52:01 PM
How about this one?
 
1. Poland, Georgia, Ukraine and Lithuania form some sort of formal self defence union. Georgia is then invaded by Russia (not improbable, as there's still trouble on the border). This time the Russians occupy Tbilisi (they argue it is the only solution to stop Georgia's reckless advances), drawing widespread condemnation.
2. Since Ukraine is now technically at war with Russia, Russians invade. The Ukrainian government collapses. Nationalistic Banderovite groups grab power and, in the west, annex Moldova.
3. Neither Poland nor Russia start fighting at this point, though they are technically at war. Anti-Russian paranoia (tanks may or may not be rolling through Ukrainian steppes at this point) mixed with Polish imperialism (also not a long shot in my opinion) sweeps a nationalistic coalition into power. This group advocates, among other things, the annexation of east slavic land and the rebuilding of the Polish empire. Under that banner they annex Lithuania and withdraw from NATO. Turning their backs on the West, they argue, was the only way that differences between european and "barbaric" slavs would be settled once and for all. 
 
Quote    Reply

Knjaz       12/2/2009 1:46:31 PM

How about this one?

 

1. Poland, Georgia, Ukraine and Lithuania form some sort of formal self defence union. Georgia is then invaded by Russia (not improbable, as there's still trouble on the border). This time the Russians occupy Tbilisi (they argue it is the only solution to stop Georgia's reckless advances), drawing widespread condemnation.


2. Since Ukraine is now technically at war with Russia, Russians invade. The Ukrainian government collapses. Nationalistic Banderovite groups grab power and, in the west, annex Moldova.


3. Neither Poland nor Russia start fighting at this point, though they are technically at war. Anti-Russian paranoia (tanks may or may not be rolling through Ukrainian steppes at this point) mixed with Polish imperialism (also not a long shot in my opinion) sweeps a nationalistic coalition into power. This group advocates, among other things, the annexation of east slavic land and the rebuilding of the Polish empire. Under that banner they annex Lithuania and withdraw from NATO. Turning their backs on the West, they argue, was the only way that differences between european and "barbaric" slavs would be settled once and for all. 

1-st is possible only if Georgia starts second war. At least due Russia's domestic reasons. Medvedev cant just say "we've had a little border clash so we're gonna take Tbilisi to settle it once and for all". There should be at least an attempt to invade SO from Georgia.
2 With Georgia attacking 1st, Ukraine declares that its going at war with Russia? Eastern and South Eastern Ukraine declares independence next day and siding with Russia or taking neutrality. Ukrainian government sends troops to Eastern Ukraine... then see my scenario))
Western Ukrainians are mobilizing and ready to fight those they hate the most.

3.  Ok, everything above had a logic in it... and then Poland decides to rebuild Rzech Pospolita, invades Lithuania, sends NATO to hell and prepares to fight for Byelorussia and all the Ukraine? o_O <--- this would be the face of Medvedev&Co, i bet )))
And i guess West would feel the same...
 
Quote    Reply

Lance Blade    power groups   12/2/2009 2:19:42 PM



1-st is possible only if Georgia starts second war. At least due Russia's domestic reasons. Medvedev cant just say "we've had a little border clash so we're gonna take Tbilisi to settle it once and for all". There should be at least an attempt to invade SO from Georgia.

There have already been at least two real attempts since 1991. It's not inconceivable that they may try again. All major political forces in Georgia swear by promising to reclaim the republics, so it's not like Georgia has learned or reformed much.
 
2 With Georgia attacking 1st, Ukraine declares that its going at war with Russia? Eastern and South Eastern Ukraine declares independence next day and siding with Russia or taking neutrality. Ukrainian government sends troops to Eastern Ukraine... then see my scenario))

Western Ukrainians are mobilizing and ready to fight those they hate the most.

Ukraine would be de jure at war as a signatory to a mutual defence pact. In the same way the British didn't "really" want to fight the Germans in WW1 but they had to defend Belgium.

3.  Ok, everything above had a logic in it... and then Poland decides to rebuild Rzech Pospolita, invades Lithuania, sends NATO to hell and prepares to fight for Byelorussia and all the Ukraine? o_O <--- this would be the face of Medvedev&Co, i bet )))

And i guess West would feel the same...

Two factors are at play here: rising nationalism in Ukraine and the amazing stupidity of the cabinet who want to do some funky measures like form an anti-Russian coalition with Kazhinsky and Saakashvilli, give banderovites a political platform and bump up social spending in a collapsing economy. Ukraine sometimes seems one step away from turmoil: a perfect scenario for fascists grabbing power. I've seen a billboard on a highway advertising a pan-slavic fascist movement near Kharkiv: that's how real fascism is there. If Ukraine signs these treaties, then gets more than it bargained for when Russia invades, loses it, and banderovites and vedists come to power at each end, then it's not inconceivable that certain power groups in Poland might feel the need to "protect" the populace by sending "peacekeepers" to the area at the very least, and at worst... let's not forget, Napoleon came to power in similar circumstances, in the midst of a revolution and turmoil. Slavs are frustrated, and there's been enough talk in nationalistic circles about dividing up Ukraine between Poland and Russia for people to at least consider it seriously.
 
It doesn't matter what the rest of the population thinks, if the government collapses and a fascist group grabs power, all sorts of interesting stuff can happen.  This also applies to Russia: nationalists there are actively calling to do away with the government, and are attracting followers.  Doesn't take that much for the government to start losing control of these forces.

 
Quote    Reply

Knjaz       12/2/2009 3:13:41 PM

Two factors are at play here: rising nationalism in Ukraine and the amazing stupidity of the cabinet who want to do some funky measures like form an anti-Russian coalition with Kazhinsky and Saakashvilli, give banderovites a political platform and bump up social spending in a collapsing economy. Ukraine sometimes seems one step away from turmoil: a perfect scenario for fascists grabbing power. I've seen a billboard on a highway advertising a pan-slavic fascist movement near Kharkiv: that's how real fascism is there. If Ukraine signs these treaties, then gets more than it bargained for when Russia invades, loses it, and banderovites and vedists come to power at each end, then it's not inconceivable that certain power groups in Poland might feel the need to "protect" the populace by sending "peacekeepers" to the area at the very least, and at worst... let's not forget, Napoleon came to power in similar circumstances, in the midst of a revolution and turmoil. Slavs are frustrated, and there's been enough talk in nationalistic circles about dividing up Ukraine between Poland and Russia for people to at least consider it seriously.

It doesn't matter what the rest of the population thinks, if the government collapses and a fascist group grabs power, all sorts of interesting stuff can happen.  This also applies to Russia: nationalists there are actively calling to do away with the government, and are attracting followers.  Doesn't take that much for the government to start losing control of these forces


As was mentioned before, if any radical/fascist group comes to power - there's a high chance that that means Ukraine is automatically split in two. If radical politics from west come to power - east is separating. And vice versa.
And with radical forces in power I suppose we can be sure that they will assume measures against "hostile" part of population.
So in this scenario u wont even need any external reasons for Russian invasion, like treaties with Georgia etc.
Of course Im talking about that all this happens before the invasion.

for when Russia invades, loses it,

You mean that Russia wont be able to keep even Novorossiya (SE and E Ukraine) under its control? i seriously doubt it.

 
Quote    Reply

Lance Blade       12/2/2009 4:09:37 PM

Two factors are at play here: rising nationalism in Ukraine and the amazing stupidity of the cabinet who want to do some funky measures like form an anti-Russian coalition with Kazhinsky and Saakashvilli, give banderovites a political platform and bump up social spending in a collapsing economy. Ukraine sometimes seems one step away from turmoil: a perfect scenario for fascists grabbing power. I've seen a billboard on a highway advertising a pan-slavic fascist movement near Kharkiv: that's how real fascism is there. If Ukraine signs these treaties, then gets more than it bargained for when Russia invades, loses it, and banderovites and vedists come to power at each end, then it's not inconceivable that certain power groups in Poland might feel the need to "protect" the populace by sending "peacekeepers" to the area at the very least, and at worst... let's not forget, Napoleon came to power in similar circumstances, in the midst of a revolution and turmoil. Slavs are frustrated, and there's been enough talk in nationalistic circles about dividing up Ukraine between Poland and Russia for people to at least consider it seriously.


It doesn't matter what the rest of the population thinks, if the government collapses and a fascist group grabs power, all sorts of interesting stuff can happen.  This also applies to Russia: nationalists there are actively calling to do away with the government, and are attracting followers.  Doesn't take that much for the government to start losing control of these forces




As was mentioned before, if any radical/fascist group comes to power - there's a high chance that that means Ukraine is automatically split in two. If radical politics from west come to power - east is separating. And vice versa.

And with radical forces in power I suppose we can be sure that they will assume measures against "hostile" part of population.

So in this scenario u wont even need any external reasons for Russian invasion, like treaties with Georgia etc.

Of course Im talking about that all this happens before the invasion.

Well at the moment Ukraine is holding her act together. Some external trigger is nesessary for Ukraine to collapse into complete chaos. Being pulled into a war with Russia will tear Ukraine apart, we're definitely in agreement there. As for Poland, there are people in high places today pushing for a more solid anti-Russian defence union. If such a treaty were to come into force, and Russia did invade Georgia, or Ukraine as per your scenario, Poland will then have to declare war on Russia. As a possible development, this will lead to the collapse of the Polish government and hardliners coming to power. And the rest is history:))
Similarly, had Georgia been allowed to join NATO, nations of the bloc would have been called upon to defend her following the August 2008 events.

for when Russia invades, loses it,



You mean that Russia wont be able to keep even Novorossiya (SE and E Ukraine) under its control? i seriously doubt it.

I was referring to Ukraine "losing it", not Russia. My apologies for being unclear.


 
Quote    Reply

Godofgamblers       12/3/2009 1:53:02 AM
I can see in this thread that we keep coming back to the Ukraine, and rightly so. The chances of Russia declaring war on Poland are very slight. The Russians have no territorial pretensions in Poland, and the Poles none in Russia. The Ukraine is the key to it all. The Ukrainian elite referred to earlier in this thread and their strident nationalism are dead-on correct. Very true. But the fact is that very little of the populace shares their nationalistic fervor. The statues of Shevchenko have replaced the statues of Stalin.... but to what effect?
 
Much of Russia's heritage lies in the Ukraine; even the names betray Russian influence: "Little Russia", "Novorosija" (New Russia), etc. And Shevchenko wrote a lot of his poetry in Russian....
 
There are those who contend that the Ukrainian language is a dialect of Russian. Thus, the dependent nature of the Ukraine cannot be totally ignored. I think althoug the Poles have given up their "Podmorskie" ambitions as postulated by Pilsudski, the Russians would like to have the Ukraine back in their orbit.
 
The situation is standing on a knife's edge.... it could go either way, War or Peace, IMO.
 
The Ukraine is where any war would take place. Polish participation would be limited to "moral support" or the funding of a "colored" movement in the Ukraine, but that's it.
 
 
 
Quote    Reply

Godofgamblers       1/15/2010 5:12:51 AM

Holy sh**! Just had an inspiration. The way to solve the logistics problem. As holmes said, once you eliminate the impossible, the remaining option, no matter how fantastic it seems, must be the answer!

If the Russians can surround the hedgehogs, overrun supply depots, that means there is only one possible way to resupply them: by water!

Crazy yet brilliant. A submersible that is able to navigate the waters of the river system, coordinating to replenish and carry off casualties to bases at the north and south of the river, as far away from the fighting as possible.

Elementary!

 

 
Quote    Reply

Nocturne       1/15/2010 9:09:22 AM
it's better than nothing. but those submersibles would be very vunerable. with the factor of surpirse yes it might be a good idea. but with surprise gone all those submersibles would be in a lot f trouble. these is no place to maneuver in most of those rivers and they are too slow to escape fire
some fishing nets would be enough to stop the traffic. its good idea for several critical supply runs or to evacuate some  valuable officer but thats it...
anyway we are talking just about buying time not winning so probably any idea that would win half a day is good
 
Quote    Reply
PREV  1 2 3 4 5 6 7   NEXT



 Latest
 News
 
 Most
 Read
 
 Most
 Commented
 Hot
 Topics