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Subject: Are complex military-economic societies like USA doomed to fail surely and suddenly?
Necromancer    3/27/2009 3:49:07 PM
Anthropologist and historian Joseph Tainter wrote a fine book about it, The Collapse of Complex Societies. Collapse tends to occur quickly, as complex systems simply break down and the social construct declines to a much simpler form. -----Like the SOviet Union and sudden end of the British empire, Spain, Rome (they took a few years to decades, but that was quick considering they were dominat for a few centuries)
 
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Wicked Chinchilla       3/29/2009 9:42:13 PM
oh come on, twice? FFS I have a good reply, but I will type it tomorrow, whoever made this code should be pissed on and then shot.
 
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DarthAmerica       3/29/2009 9:58:45 PM
 
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Jimme       3/29/2009 11:17:09 PM
Always copy (control-c)before you submit and if its a long post write it on MS Word then past it here. I learned long time ago on this board.
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       3/30/2009 12:02:31 AM
SP management must be getting a cut from some really half assed software company because after the change this board is hosed.
 
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Wicked Chinchilla       3/30/2009 8:18:19 AM

Ugh, ok, so here is what I tried to say last night.

 

I realize there were many changes in the balance of authority between centralized and decentralized authority.  Whats important to me is the general trend of weakening central authority, not the yearly, or monthly changes. 

 

At any rate, given what you are saying in your responses I think that using the word evolution to described what happened may have led you to assume some incorrect things about what I am saying.  I am a microbiologist (specifically virologist actually) and thus when I read or see gradual change my mind instantly goes to evolution.  That is because a gradual change in an organism is all evolution is.  It is not good, or bad, it is just a change.  The environment the change takes place in governs whether the creature evolved in a beneficial or harmful way.  In my view, the gradual change of Rome from a Republic, to Dictatorship, to Empire, to Feudalish society (Byzantine Empire) screams evolution, albeit one that in the end doomed the organism of Rome.  I wanted to clarify that.  I have not been saying that Rome changed on purpose to a better fit, better running "organism."  No, what I am saying is that due to changes in religion, economics, the military, and the social constructs of the time, the Empire went through a number of different appearances.  What I read in Necromancers post that forced my response is that it implied that all of Rome, its many years and storied history, not just the Imperial Ages, fell rapidly and suddenly, which frankly did not happen. 

 

Now, on to the actual post and such and off of the semantics. 

 

I must disagree with the idea that Gov't run amok is what led to the steady deconstruction of the Empire.  In my mind it was rampant non-gov't, if not sheer outright neglect.  Economic and a social collapse of sorts did occur in the core due the waste of the treasury on a succession of wanna-be Emperors fighting over control of Rome.  It was a cascade effect: as more of the treasury was spent fighting one another instead of actually running the country the Civilian Bureaucracy of Rome which was once quite powerful and influential was slowly, but steadily wore down from lack of money and a crisis of authority.  The problems of funding are obvious: with no money to pay the bureaucrats they most likely walked off the job.  The problem of authority was that as a Civilian you had no army backing you.  During the many civil wars only words backed by the sword really held any sway, after all why should the people listen to you at all if you will most likely be deposed the first time you piss off a General?  The Civilian Chain of command had just as many levels as the military chain of command, but no actual military backing.  When push came to shove the military simply superceded the Civilian gov'ts and they faded away from poor funding and no real way to enforce their authority.  Interestingly as the bureaucracy died of slowly of cancer the Catholic Church took up the responsibilities it left behind on the grass roots level.  Things like keeping track of proper

 
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Le Zookeeper    Here it comes- Tsunami- China topples US-    8/3/2009 3:33:24 AM

Times have changed in the entire psychology of credit support for the USGovt and USEconomy in a manner that is shocking, if not revolutionary. The creditor nations have begun to discuss new terms of continued support. Foreign creditors are noticing Uncle Sam groveling and in growing desperate and confusion. Behind the curtains, the Chinese have clearly struck some important deals. Rumors are ripe that in a March trip to Beijing, Secy State Hillary cut a deal promising Eminent Domain on US property in return for continued USTreasury Bond support. So maybe a shopping basket of thousands of homes, hundreds of commercial buildings, scads of idle industrial plants, and a few million acres of farmland are soon to be seized by the Chinese in exchange for USTreasury Bond debt. One must wonder. The American people, i.e. USA Inc shareholders, will be the last to know in this criminal syndicate environment, a hatched cloud from the Fascist Business Model. Seemingly on a quarterly basis, something must be handed to the Chinese for continued USTBond support. The USTreasury officials and USFed have lied through their teeth about avoiding direct monetization. If the Chinese have half a brain individually, they can see the back-door monetization with collusion of foreign central banks. The Chinese are in town for the next concession. One can only wonder. Well, the Jackass has a good idea of what comes next. It is just a matter of time.

USGOVT YUAN BONDS

The concept can be described in very simple terms. The vehicle is devastating in its effects and consequences. What are they exactly? The USGovt might soon issue bonds, except not in US$ denomination, but rather in Yuan currency. Out of the gate (with debt signposts), the USGovt must purchase gigantic swaths of Yuan and pay with USDollars. The result is a quantum decline in the US$ exchange rate relative to everything holding the Yuan together. The Chinese decided in 2005 to tie their Yuan currency to a basket of currencies, led by the US$, the Euro, the Yen, the British Pound, and a small additional group. So the direct purchase of Yuan by the Untied States, the newest upcoming member of the Third World, will have numerous profound effects to lift other currencies.

The direct consequences of USGovt Yuan Bonds would be vast, visible, lethal:

  • The USDollar exchange rate would fall with each debt issuance
  • The loan balance in USGovt debt would rise with a declining USDollar
  • The Yuan currency would be further established as a global reserve alternative
  • Continued trade settlement in Yuan terms would be enabled
  • Rise in entire cost structure to the USEconomy from commodity pricing
  • The risk of USTreasury Bond default grows with each passing new issuance

The Chinese want protection and assurance against the falling USDollar and even the growing principal risk of USTreasurys. Higher bond yields mean principal bond loss. Both currency and bond loss mean a powerful combined loss. Beijing wants protection and security in exchange for continued debt support. A Yuan-based bond issuance by the USDept Treasury, sold by the USFed would accomplish this to some degree. In a few years time, if the US$ exchange rate is 15% to 30% lower, the loan balance in Yuan terms would be unchanged. The cost to the USGovt grows by that percentage however. If the yield rises, then protection can be locked by means of making the debt securities of shorter maturity, like two to five years.

The Chinese have already been shifting their USTBond portfolio from long-term to short-term maturity. This has been the driving factor behind the rising 10-year USTreasury yield and the steeper yield curve. Perversely, the US banks enjoy a benefit. They can amplify their Carry Trade, borrow at the short end, invest in the long end, pocket the 2% to 3% difference, and even store their booty of bonds at the USFed itself. This is one reason the US banks are not lending to Main Street firms and households. They are too busy playing the USTBond Carry Trade under the aegis of the discredited US Federal Reserve. And the topic of Bank Consolidation has not even been raised, whereby the big US banks reverse the carry trade by buying up distressed regional banks. Maybe the Chinese will become involved in that racket as a fringe benefit. Maybe they have been tipped off to purchase stock in the giant pharmaceutical firms who will reap windfall profits as the swine flu is spread by means of faulty vaccines and forced inoculations.

BOTTOM UP BUT NEXT TOP DOWN
The USGovt Yuan Bond will be a significant blo
 
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Jeff_F_F    I'm more worried about SOX and HC Reform   8/7/2009 4:11:02 PM
SOX = the death of the high tech IPO
HC Reform = permenant lead weight on the now stangnant post-SOX economy.
 
I'm not talking the fall of America tomorrow, or in a decade. Google and even Microsoft have some room still to inovate and before they become static old companies like IBM, and buying up high tech startups may help slow the process...or maybe not. Probably more like half a century. It depends on how long it takes before high tech entrepeneurs start going public in India since they can't do it here and then outsourcing their high-talent positions to workers in the US.
 
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french stratege       8/8/2009 12:15:56 PM
Usual trolling of a liberal and leftist historian.
Military economic societies failed when they overspend, have a failed leadership, expend too much their empire or take big risks (adventurism) like III Reich.
Keys are sustainable spending, economic and a good political system.
With 4% of GDP or even 6, USA are far below to what they could do.
Now,when you have a political system where demagogy rules or when you pay your current spending by doing loans and expend your debt, and increasing deficits, it fails soon or late for any nation, complex or not.
See exemple of former Spanish empire.
 
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Beazz       8/13/2009 12:57:07 PM
Le Zookeeper    Here it comes- Tsunami- China topples US-    8/3/2009 3:33:24 AM

Times have changed in the entire psychology of credit support for the USGovt and USEconomy in a manner that is shocking, if not revolutionary. The creditor nations have begun to discuss new terms of continued support. Foreign creditors are noticing Uncle Sam groveling and in growing desperate and confusion. Behind the curtains, the Chinese have clearly struck some important deals. Rumors are ripe that in a March trip to Beijing, Secy State Hillary cut a deal promising Eminent Domain on US property in return for continued USTreasury Bond support. So maybe a shopping basket of thousands of homes, hundreds of commercial buildings, scads of idle industrial plants, and a few million acres of farmland are soon to be seized by the Chinese in exchange for USTreasury Bond debt. One must wonder. The American people, i.e. USA Inc shareholders, will be the last to know in this criminal syndicate environment, a hatched cloud from the Fascist Business Model. Seemingly on a quarterly basis, something must be handed to the Chinese for continued USTBond support. The USTreasury officials and USFed have lied through their teeth about avoiding direct monetization. If the Chinese have half a brain individually, they can see the back-door monetization with collusion of foreign central banks. The Chinese are in town for the next concession. One can only wonder. Well, the Jackass has a good idea of what comes next. It is just a matter of time.

USGOVT YUAN BONDS

The concept can be described in very simple terms. The vehicle is devastating in its effects and consequences. What are they exactly? The USGovt might soon issue bonds, except not in US$ denomination, but rather in Yuan currency. Out of the gate (with debt signposts), the USGovt must purchase gigantic swaths of Yuan and pay with USDollars. The result is a quantum decline in the US$ exchange rate relative to everything holding the Yuan together. The Chinese decided in 2005 to tie their Yuan currency to a basket of currencies, led by the US$, the Euro, the Yen, the British Pound, and a small additional group. So the direct purchase of Yuan by the Untied States, the newest upcoming member of the Third World, will have numerous profound effects to lift other currencies.

The direct consequences of USGovt Yuan Bonds would be vast, visible, lethal:

  • The USDollar exchange rate would fall with each debt issuance
  • The loan balance in USGovt debt would rise with a declining USDollar
  • The Yuan currency would be further established as a global reserve alternative
  • Continued trade settlement in Yuan terms would be enabled
  • Rise in entire cost structure to the USEconomy from commodity pricing
  • The risk of USTreasury Bond default grows with each passing new issuance

The Chinese want protection and assurance against the falling USDollar and even the growing principal risk of USTreasurys. Higher bond yields mean principal bond loss. Both currency and bond loss mean a powerful combined loss. Beijing wants protection and security in exchange for continued debt support. A Yuan-based bond issuance by the USDept Treasury, sold by the USFed would accomplish this to some degree. In a few years time, if the US$ exchange rate is 15% to 30% lower, the loan balance in Yuan terms would be unchanged. The cost to the USGovt grows by that percentage however. If the yield rises, then protection can be locked by means of making the debt securities of shorter maturity, like two to five years.

The Chinese have already been shifting their USTBond portfolio from long-term to short-term maturity. This has been the driving factor behind the rising 10-year USTreasury yield and the steeper yield curve. Perversely, the US banks enjoy a benefit. They can amplify their Carry Trade, borrow at the short end, invest in the long end, pocket the 2% to 3% difference, and even store their booty of bonds at the USFed itself. This is one reason the US banks are

 
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Beazz       8/13/2009 2:53:55 PM

Alienating France is not wise. They have always been loyal when it counts the most When greatness enters the room, it is not because they have been invited. It is because they have stormed the premises and imposed their will on those who need the benefits of great leadership. 


You live on another planet obviously. France is a lot of things, but LOYAL is NOT one of them. Nice definition of greatness. Sounds just like the USA with the exception when we come storming in to lead the hapless, we are actually wanted there. How many centurys has it been since France led anything aside from making a bottle of wine?  We do  not need France. They are either getting out guys killed from having to come save their sorry asses over and over or outright trying to put together coalitions against us as they did at the beginning og the Iraq war. Of course we all know now why. They were stealing money from starving kids in Iraq in the oil for food program and knew they would be found out once we got in, and they WERE caught red handed!!
 
So thanks, but no thanks. If alienating France will keep her the hell away from the US, consider her alienated!!
have a nice day
 
Beazz
 
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