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Subject: what are the trump cards of USA and PRC
verong    1/14/2009 2:06:54 PM
Hey Folks, the USA has nuke, and distance from PRC as its two biggest trump card. PRC has economic strangulation by ending exports to USA which would cost the USA almost as much as a nuke strick, and it also has the distance card, since it would take years for the USA to extend itself with enough conventional power to challenge the PRC and third the PRC has more manpower than the USA. Anybody think of any additional trump cards???? Sincerely, Keith
 
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ArtyEngineer    Economic Warfare US vs PRC   1/14/2009 2:15:57 PM
Im going to caveat the following with teh fact that I dont know an awfull lot about economics so please be gently as you all corrrect my misconceptions!!!!
 
I strongly disagree with this idea that the PRC has some sort of economic strangle hold ove rthe US due to the fact that it a major supplier of cheap "Stuff" to teh US.  Is the entire PRC economy not extremely dependent on the massive trade deficit between teh US and itself?  I believe teh US would be able to find a supplier in Eastern Europe, India or South America much easier than China could find alternate buyers for it goods!
 
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Ispose    Achilles Heel   1/14/2009 2:52:33 PM
The easiest way to shut China down is to send in a B2 and blow the hell out of that big Dam on the Yangtze...that would swap half of China and shut down their economy for years....essentially long enough for the Central Gov't to dissolve and for China to go back to it's "Traditional" several dozen provinces each with its own warlord fighting the others....
Might not be a bad thing...we can still import our Rubber Dog DooDoo without the PRC's devaluation of the yen making the trade balance lopsided in their favor
 
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JFKY    My response   1/14/2009 3:01:53 PM
Our chief weapon is surprise...surprise and fear...fear and surprise.... Our two weapons are fear and surprise...and ruthless efficiency.... Our *three* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency...and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope.... Our *four*...no... *Amongst* our weapons.... Amongst our weaponry...are such elements as fear, surprise.... I'll come in again.
 
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verong       1/14/2009 3:16:18 PM

Im going to caveat the following with teh fact that I dont know an awfull lot about economics so please be gently as you all corrrect my misconceptions!!!!

 

I strongly disagree with this idea that the PRC has some sort of economic strangle hold ove rthe US due to the fact that it a major supplier of cheap "Stuff" to teh US.  Is the entire PRC economy not extremely dependent on the massive trade deficit between teh US and itself?  I believe teh US would be able to find a supplier in Eastern Europe, India or South America much easier than China could find alternate buyers for it goods!



do you realize how much time it would take to replace the 30,000,000 pairs of shoes we import from China. do you realize the rest of the world only has so much extra they can build? then there is rebuilding internal capacity by the USA which would take years in the mean time PRC could convert their factories to produce military shoes or simply equip their military with what ever they were building for the US market.
 
Sincerely,
 
Keith
 
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verong       1/14/2009 3:19:11 PM

The easiest way to shut China down is to send in a B2 and blow the hell out of that big Dam on the Yangtze...that would swap half of China and shut down their economy for years....essentially long enough for the Central Gov't to dissolve and for China to go back to it's "Traditional" several dozen provinces each with its own warlord fighting the others....

Might not be a bad thing...we can still import our Rubber Dog DooDoo without the PRC's devaluation of the yen making the trade balance lopsided in their favor



The objective is to stay out of a fighthttp://strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emcry.gif" align="absMiddle" border="0" alt="" /> do you not think the samehttp://strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emdgust.gif" align="absMiddle" border="0" alt="" />
 
sincerely.
 
Keith
 
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Ispose    Re: Keith   1/14/2009 5:27:28 PM
The objective is to stay out of a fighthttp://strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emcry.gif" align="absMiddle" border="0" /> do you not think the samehttp://strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emdgust.gif" align="absMiddle" border="0" />
 
sincerely.
 
Keith
 
The objective is to stay out of a "Ground" fight...we do not have the resources to fight China on the Ground in China....we can wreck China by flooding them, sinking any shipping with our Naval advantage, and a few strikes on thier big Railway bridges. We can hurt their infrastructure...they can't hurt ours. This is all presuming a military confrontation
In a non military confrontation...it would be harder, but essentially removing China from most favored trade status, buy from alternative countries...India, S. Korea, taiwan, Indosnesia, restrict them from US banking Systems, etc...This would hurt us as well but I think we can buy from others easier than the Chinese can sell to others
 
 
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xylene       1/14/2009 7:13:00 PM
The US's biggest Achilles Heel is its own trade policy which incentivizes all types of businesses to outsource or leave it's domestic borders. Manufacturing creates wealth , it creates tangible products, it keeps essential skills and knowledge in the workforce, and a healthy vibrant manufacturing industry is an avenue of non-college graduates to achieve a form of upward mobility thus bolstering the middle class. A service related economy which our politicians and free traders espouse is akin to a barter system where wealth is not created , money is simply exchanged for various types of services. It's a closed loop and that is why clever people in such a system seek to "create" wealth from speculation and structured finance.
 
The US's advantage is it's sea and air power. It has the ability to project power in a way no other nation can match. What makes the USA a fearsome power is it's ability to strike with impunity with it's highly trained and competant blue water navy and long range bomber force. The USA also has defacto control of most world institutions. Most of China's neighbors trust the USA more than they do China. But most of all the USA has dollar hegemony. As the reserve currency of the world there is a demand for dollars. This allows the USA to spend beyond its means , an ability no other nation has.
 
China has some advantages as well and what is alarming it is very reminiscent to the advantages the USA portrayed early in it's history. It is a manufacturing powerhouse. Moreover it has massive manpower and ability to mass produce on a huge scale. It is alarming because even though the USA and western powers use the best gold plated sophisticated hardware eventually that advantage deteriorates in a long sustained fight. The PRC itself being an authoritarian government has it's advantages. It has much better central planning and decisions can be made quicker in a crisis that with a democracy. China's biggest advantage is that it has perception on it's side and also the greed of western business interests. China is perceieved as a vast market and up and coming superpower. This entices western businesses to turn their backs on their own and chase the dollars. These business interests are very powerful lobbys which can exert tremendous influence in Washington.
 
China's disadvantages are numerous. It has a huge population that has rising expectations. The curent global downturn will be a huge test for the PRC as you have a young generation that has never known anything except extraordinary economic growth in their lifetimes. China is also limited in in natural resources, it has limited access to the sea, and it does not have experience projecting power beyond it's borders.
 
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Ispose    Re: Xylene   1/15/2009 12:42:23 PM
You hit the naile SQUARELY on the head
 
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verong       1/15/2009 3:39:13 PM

You hit the naile SQUARELY on the head


Yes He didhttp://www.strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emteeth.gif" align="absMiddle" border="0" alt="" /> I was actually looking at the various deterrent factors the countries have over a North Korean invasion of South Korea. I figured that if North Korea gets a new leader things might go bad, thus a potential conflicthttp://www.strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emembarrassed.gif" align="absMiddle" border="0" alt="" />
 
Sincerely,
 
Keith
 
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Softwar       1/15/2009 4:17:46 PM



You hit the naile SQUARELY on the head






Yes He didhttp://www.strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emteeth.gif" align="absMiddle" border="0" /> I was actually looking at the various deterrent factors the countries have over a North Korean invasion of South Korea. I figured that if North Korea gets a new leader things might go bad, thus a potential conflicthttp://www.strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emembarrassed.gif" align="absMiddle" border="0" />

 

Sincerely,

 

Keith


First - the biggest disadvantage China has is its centralized form of government.  The leadership is the key and always has been.  They are quite willing to lose 200 million but our targeting is not anti-population.  The CCP can clearly comprehend tthe fact that the US targets them personally.  This factor has always been the achilles heel of totalitarian states.
Second - tactically China could be strangled by blocking the Straits between the pacific and indian oceans.  The Chinese are more than aware that their oil imports could be shut off by a few well placed Naval units.
 
Third - the PRC exports are suffering already with the downturn.  This can lead to big time unrest.  In short, we can seek other sources of imports or rebuild our manufacturing base but they have a limited export base.  Combine this with our Naval power and you can see that China would be isolated in a matter of days.
Fourth - Our biggest drawback has been the idiots who run our China policy.  The engagement policy - which has dominated the US/Sino relations since 1990 - has not made China any nicer nor has it helped the Chinese people move toward liberty.  It has made some people on both sides very rich at the expense of the US and Chinese citizens.
 
Finally, the DPRK will not invade South Korea - even the South Koreans know that.  One does not invade with a starving Army that has such low reserves of fuel that they will run out after 20 miles.  The South Koreans are more afraid of a collapse of the DPRK than some sort of invasion by Kim or anyone else.  So are the Chinese.  A DPRK implosion would flood both borders with millions of starving North Korean refugees.  The friends I have in the South Korean government are more afraid of a DPRK collapse because they estimate it will take upwards of a Trillion dollars to bring them out of the stone age.
 
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