Military History | How To Make War | Wars Around the World Rules of Use How to Behave on an Internet Forum
Armed Forces of the World Discussion Board
   Return to Topic Page
Subject: what are the trump cards of USA and PRC
verong    1/14/2009 2:06:54 PM
Hey Folks, the USA has nuke, and distance from PRC as its two biggest trump card. PRC has economic strangulation by ending exports to USA which would cost the USA almost as much as a nuke strick, and it also has the distance card, since it would take years for the USA to extend itself with enough conventional power to challenge the PRC and third the PRC has more manpower than the USA. Anybody think of any additional trump cards???? Sincerely, Keith
 
Quote    Reply

Show Only Poster Name and Title     Newest to Oldest
Pages: PREV  1 2 3   NEXT
kensohaski    Turd World   1/17/2009 7:42:46 AM
The mongoloid Red Chinese have more than a billion people, a huge army, a racist attitude and a few nukes.  They have no advantage; this makes them dangerous.
 
Quote    Reply

Parmenion    "Mogoloid"?   1/17/2009 7:54:44 PM
"mongoloid"? I think you're the racist one kensohaki.
 
Quote    Reply

Parmenion    China's economic clout   1/17/2009 8:19:23 PM
As for China's economic clout, just remember who owns well over half of the US debt, since the last Japanese budget scramble. China can pull an economic widowmaker on the United States by calling in on it's loans. As for a trade embargo, well yes that will hurt China. But the Chinese people are a lot more pepared for and used to coping with hardship than even the average American. The loss of half it's exports due to the USA will not destabilise the PRC, it will do the opposite- galvanising the fiercely nationalistic Chinese people against a common enemy. As for US Naval attcks on Chinese imports, dream on mate. I mean fine, the USA has the world's best navy- you can talk about that all you like, just remember to keep a kleenex handy for when you're done. But no US administration would willingly start World War 3.
 
Because if you go after those oil supplies that's what you're doing, and China will respond with the scenario recently envisaged in the US wargames centred over the invasion of Taiwan, where "red team" shoots down US satellites which otside of cloud cuckoo land is nearly impossible to stop, and then proceeds to defeat or inflict critical losses on US forces defending Taiwan, relatively uncoordinated without their technology. Then after that, the gloves are off, and you'e got to think what Japan, Russia, and India will do. I'm not saying it looks great for China, but by week two US will be derided by it's allies, humiliated over it's first loss of a major pitched battle since the war of 1812, and having to chose between being paupered by it's debts being called in, or a self imposed exile form the world econmoic system which would be just as bad. But China wouldn't be stupid enough to let a war start, they're far smarter than that and playing a long, long game.
 
Quote    Reply

EvilFishy       1/17/2009 10:12:57 PM

---As for China's economic clout, just remember who owns well over half of the US debt, since the last Japanese budget scramble. China can pull an economic widowmaker on the United States by calling in on it's loans.---

Speaking of ---cloud cuckoo land--- is that the place you visited while sleeping through Econ 101?

Do you know the definition of market value? How about the concept of supply and demand?

China sent the USA real, tangible assets in the form of materials, goods, and some services. What did China get? China got paper currency. What happens when a market is flooded with a good (supply exceeds demand)? Well, the price falls dramatically and quite quickly. What does this mean?

This means your little ---economic widowmaker--- is just that: FOR CHINA as dumping their supply of treasury notes, bonds, and all other securities on the market would drop the price to near nothingness.

Translation: China would have traded HARD, TANGIBLE, VALUABLE goods and services for what the equivalent of TOILET PAPER.

Keeping in mind the fact that China-s primary currency is still pegged to the Dollar (which I remind you is the world-s reserve currency) this would be the single fastest way to watch all of China-s wealth melt away so fast you could measure the downfall with an egg timer.

I am not saying this will not hurt the USA; hyper inflation seems inevitable at the current rate Congress treats the US taxpayer/piggy bank, but I am saying this will hurt China FAR MORE than it will hurt the USA (given a whole host or problems China enjoys while the USA does not).

---As for a trade embargo, well yes that will hurt China. But the Chinese people are a lot more prepared for and used to coping with hardship than even the average American.---

This is very true; the hardest time any American can remember is living with out a job and rationing food. The hardest time the Chinese can recall is a time when the Government-s incompetence cause the widespread starvation of TENS OF MILLIONS OF PEOPLE.

What relevance this has on MODERN DAY CHINA, I have no clue. People are people and once people get used to running water and electricity, doing with out will prove detrimental to any sitting government (regardless of the nation). You can bank of that.

---The loss of half it's exports due to the USA will not destabilise the PRC, it will do the opposite- galvanising the fiercely nationalistic Chinese people against a common enemy.---

So all those Chinese who are starving to death because they are out of work, who just had their life savings wiped out and who basically have nothing to live for will do, what, exactly?

---As for US Naval attacks on Chinese imports, dream on mate.---

People have been underestimating the USA for over 200 years and I see the trend endures to this day.

--- I mean fine, the USA has the world's best navy- you can talk about that all you like, just remember to keep a kleenex handy for when you're done.---

I do not need Kleenex; I prefer a moist towel when thinking of the USA-s navy and my families illustrious history in the United States Navy serving in the Civil War, Spanish American War, First World War, and Second World War.

---But no US administration would willingly start World War 3.---

I would not put money on that given some of the characters the USA has elected to the office of President.

---Because if you go after those oil supplies that's what you're doing, and China will respond with the scenario recently envisaged in the US wargames centred over the invasion of Taiwan, where "red team" shoots down US satellites which outside of cloud cuckoo land is nearly impossible to stop, and then proceeds to defeat or inflict critical losses on US forces defending Taiwan, relatively uncoordinated without their technology.---

Recall what I said about underestimating the United States? You just did it again.

The USN did just fine for 200 years with out satellite technology and they possess the power today to fight a war with out such toys.

---Then after that, the gloves are off, and you'e got to think what Japan, Russia, and India will do. I'm not saying it looks great for China, but by week two US will be derided by it's allies, humiliated over it's first loss of a major pitched battle since the war of 1812, and having to chose between b

 
Quote    Reply

Parmenion    RE: Moist Towel?   1/18/2009 10:44:16 AM
Moist towel? I'm not even going to ask, but I do commed you and your family for their service and mean no offence to you personally. As for underestimating the USN, it's not me who did so, but the US military. Look up the recent wargames in Colorado I believe, and you will see that with the current level of satellite defenses, in a suprise attack red team conquered brown team- that's taiwan by the way, and inflicted heavy lossed on blue team bfore blue team could react. I'm sure that the USN could definintely win and probably invade Hong Kong if they felt like it, but you should remember your history too- a more powerful force can still be defeated if they're suprised and have their lines of communication temporarily cut. In the American civil war every engagment lost by US forces was by definition aslo won by US forces- so although great history, it's kind of irrelevant here.
 
As for the detailed economics, unless you can show me your ecnonomics degree I'm not going to get started, though I would remind you that a world in which the dollar becomes "Toilet paper", as you admitted, would be a disaster for the US, and you vastly underestimate the depth of the Chinese current account(s). Let's be simple, the US is a democracy based upon the rule of law and when massive loans are called in that has a demonstrable effect. Nothing the US can do econmically can hurt China to the same degree. The goverment is more than capable of feeding everyone useful, even if it's not quite in the style  the PROFESSIONAL URBAN MINORITY of Chinese people have come to expect. The Chinese are fiercely nationalistic- look at the demonstrations in anger over the Tibet-Olympic torch thing. If Robert Mugabe can still hang on in a far, far, far, far worse version of what the PRC might be in, then the Chinese communist party, who are not exactly pushovers, will be laughing. The one who controls the army has the power, this would probably set bck Chinese democracy by 30 years. I never said this scenario is a win for the Chinese, but ultimately the USA will lose more prestiege and also earn the ire of the Chinese people, not great for the US since sooner rather than later America will be the tail to China's economic dog.
 
Quote    Reply

Nichevo       1/18/2009 1:33:56 PM
"The goverment is more than capable of feeding everyone useful"
 
Yeah, I'm sure the ones you feed will be real nationalistic.  What a maroon!  
 
I'm dating a Chinese girl now.  I gotta ask her if you are all this nuts.
 
Quote    Reply

Parmenion       1/18/2009 2:50:52 PM
"Yeah, I'm sure the ones you feed will be real nationalistic."
So you completely agree that China can feed everyone it needs. Also since US trade is only 20% of Chinese exports, and China actually has enough domestic agriculture to feed everyone, it's kind of a moot point. But still well done Nichevo! You actually understod an argument! This must be a big day for you! By the way I'm British, but please do have fun asking questions to your imaginary Chinese girlfirend. The day you find love from a real woman is the day Luxembourg kicks the US in a war.
 
Quote    Reply

EvilFishy       1/18/2009 3:10:20 PM

---Moist towel? I'm not even going to ask,---

A wise policy me thinks. Needless to say, I hold the US Military, the UNS in particular, in high regard.

---As for underestimating the USN, it's not me who did so, but the US military---

You must always realize that in the USA, every message sent has a particular audience in mind and as such each message is tailored to suit that particular audience. I would not so readily put stock in what you read least of which coming from a war game (especially so if it is what I think it is). This is not to say they are wrong or you should dismiss what they say outright due to who is speaking but merely for you to consider the source and their particular goals when digesting the data.

---Look up the recent wargames in Colorado I believe, and you will see that with the current level of satellite defenses, in a suprise attack red team conquered brown team- that's taiwan by the way, and inflicted heavy lossed on blue team bfore blue team could react.---

See what I wrote above. A war game is just that; a game. It is a scripted event. By the way, could you be so kind as to post the specific Wargame to which you refer so I could study the specifics of such a game (specifically the goal in mind for the event).

There is this myth going around that the USMilitary and the USN is so tech dependent that the very denial of some specific toys mean they are rendered combat ineffective. My point earlier was that the USN has the tools and experience, with out such tech if needed, to fight such a war.

China is not America-s equal militarily and even if China could remove ALL OF America-s assets in the sky (I find this unlikely) this would not mean that America is automatically brought down to China-s level nor would it mean that America would no longer be able to wage war.

Guided bombs do not simply rely on GPS and the great thing about a GPS bomb with out GPS is it will still go BOOOM when it hits something. America has many bombs and some are so large that guidance is really not needed.

---I'm sure that the USN could definintely win and probably invade Hong Kong if they felt like it, but you should remember your history too- a more powerful force can still be defeated if they're suprised and have their lines of communication temporarily cut.---

Oh I recall my history quite well which is why I cited the American Civil War. How many times did an --impregnable, unstoppable--- Union Army meet utter defeat and destruction at the hands of a Virginian Engineer. All of my ancestors, that I am aware of anyway, fought for the Union and we still have writings about the -great /s- leadership of the likes of Scot, McClellan, Meade and Hooker who pissed away time and lives.

My point was not to say the USN is a bigger/badder boy than the Chinese Navy Ergo they win each and every time. No, my point was to say the USN has the tools in her belt, satellites or not, and, most importantly, the experience the Chinese do not have in such an encounter.

---In the American civil war every engagement lost by US forces was by definition aslo won by US forces- so although great history, it's kind of irrelevant here.---

This is not accurate. The CSA was not the USA. The separation happened (which makes some of Lincoln-s policies quite contradictory given the states had to be readmitted into the Union). You could say Americans, as in NORTH Americans or Confederate Americas won specific battles but to suggest the Union Army won at Antietam, Bull Run (Mananas and Second Mananas), Fredericksburg, Chancellorsville, Chickamauga, Spotsylvania is nonsense. These were sound defeats for the American Army. Well you could argue Antietam but the rest were sound whippings of the Union Army.

---As for the detailed economics, unless you can show me your ecnonomics degree I'm not going to get started,---

<
 
Quote    Reply

Parmenion    RE:China   1/18/2009 4:21:35 PM
Your points are well made Evil Fishy, and it's nice to see some reasoned debate instead of just bitching (I'm looking at you Nichevo). As for the USN versus PRC forces, absolutely if the USN is well led it can win and hold Taiwan with or without satellites. The thing the Econmist article about the wargames seemed to say was that if the USN even blinked however, they could be losing a battle they deserve to win, for the sake of the Taiwanese people for one thing. I do undertsand the concept of datawashing however so maybe this was just a ploy for more satellite money. As someone with some physics and engineering experience though, I'm fairly sure that given a year to prepare I could shoot down a satellite with an off the shelf looking rocket and some roofing nails. In fact I'd say most people could.
 
Fine the Civil war counts, I was thinking more about foreign forces, and I do like the Civil war as a piece of history but it didn't really occur to me a a US versus other country defeat in the same way as 1812. I suppose I could get all postmodernist on you and say it's down to personal interpretation- but I won't because I don't like post-modernists' very much. As for the economic factors- let's just look at it this way. The US market is only 20% of China's exports, and it's doubtful the US can put an international embargo on China. So a trade embargo on America will not have Chinese people starving in the streets as you claim, in fact China has the domestic agriculture to feed everyone, though pork would likely become a rarity.
 
Loss of Chinese goods isn't going to do more than seriously inconvenience the US economy- and I never said that it would do anything more. 500 billion + of debts being called in may well do however, it dosen't matter if they get pennies back the point is to stick it to the US, and the Chinese can actually afford it. Even if it wipes out their current account, what does that lose an authoritarian industrial nation of their size? Europeans and people the world over still want to buy shoes toys and cars. The bastards may be corrupt but they can be bloody efficent and every single problem will either be covered up by the party or used to increase anti US-sentiment.
 
Prehaps it's more reasonable to say that neither the US or China can pull an "economic widowmaker". They can just make lots of Chinese and Americans unemployed and wreck the dollar. The problem is that China can ultimately recover and the Party can't be voted out. As for China superseding the US, it will happen eventually. Frankly it dosen't matter if they can build the engine today, because, as you pointed out, they can simply steal the designs from Europe and the US. And China has the fastest growing population of university students in the sciences in the world while US enrollment in science is stagnating. Eventually that edge is going to dissapear.
 
Quote    Reply

EvilFishy       1/18/2009 5:58:34 PM
--- As for the USN versus PRC forces, absolutely if the USN is well led it can win and hold Taiwan with or without satellites. The thing the Econmist article about the wargames seemed to say was that if the USN even blinked however, they could be losing a battle they deserve to win, for the sake of the Taiwanese people for one thing.---

If the Fascist Chinese attempt to take Taiwan, and WIN, it will be Taiwan-s fault; not the USN. Taiwan, from all accounts I have, is well equipped to survive a brunt attack from the Fascist Chinese (for now) with out the USN.

As for the USN finding herself in a fight --they could be losing-- this would only occur during a President and or Congress lacking the balls to do anything about it (Vietnam, Somalia, etc). This has little if anything to do with the capability of the USN and as such your previous comments about the Fascist Chinese military capabilities are moot.

Poorly armed, druged out fanatics can --WIN-- against American forces when American forces are ordered not to win. It really is that simple.

---I do undertsand the concept of datawashing however so maybe this was just a ploy for more satellite money.---

Follow the money.

--As someone with some physics and engineering experience though, I'm fairly sure that given a year to prepare I could shoot down a satellite with an off the shelf looking rocket and some roofing nails. In fact I'd say most people could.---

Do not suppose that American spy and Military satellites are the same as Telecom satellites. There is much not in the public domain (for obvious reasons) which would preclude me conceding that you could shoot down an American MILITARY satellite.

---Fine the Civil war counts, I was thinking more about foreign forces, and I do like the Civil war as a piece of history but it didn't really occur to me a a US versus other country defeat in the same way as 1812.---

A few things here: the Confederate States of America was a SEPARATE NATION and, as such, was a FOREIGN NATION is as much as Mexico was and remains a FOREIGN NATION.

Secondly, the USA did not LOSE the war of 1812. In fact, with the exception of Canada, the Americans achieved a good deal of their war aims. The War of 1812 also established the USN as a real world power. For some reason it has become a common misconception that the War of 1812 was a decisive defeat for the United States when in fact they achieved what they wanted (although I would have liked that Canadian state).

---I suppose I could get all postmodernist on you and say it's down to personal interpretation- but I won't because I don't like post-modernists' very much---

You can argue your opinion all you like and as you see fit. I will stick with the numbers.

---As for the economic factors- let's just look at it this way. The US market is only 20% of China's exports,---

You make nearly a QUARTER of a nation-s exports sound pitiful. What if I told you that a QUARTER of your annual income was now GONE?

What is more is the fact that a dumping of dollars would not just see US exports evaporate but also all other western exports (Europe in particular). Here is a decent analysis on China-s problem (one of many) regarding their exports and how they have not prepared for something so clear and obvious that any fortune cookie would have been able to see this coming a mile ahead:

http://cnreviews.com/china_economy/china_financial_crisis_20081125.html

China is a nation BUILT UPON EXPORTS. When the world economy slows their demand, China no longer has a supply to sell and they hurt. The dissolution of the Dollar, particularly as a reserve currency, would have far worse impacts upon global trade than this mere fact.

---and it's doubtful the US can put an international embargo on China.---

Doubtful? There you go again; underestimating the USN. If the USN of 1861, not exactly a powerhouse, can cut of the Southern United States from the outside world, then the USN of the 21st Century can do the same to China. Remember, the bulk of China's oil comes via the sea lanes. No oil, no manufacturing. No manufacturing, no war.

---So a trade embargo on America will not have Chinese people starving in the streets as you claim,---

The trade embargo against the North Korea

 
Quote    Reply
PREV  1 2 3   NEXT



 Latest
 News
 
 Most
 Read
 
 Most
 Commented
 Hot
 Topics