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Subject: what are the trump cards of USA and PRC
verong    1/14/2009 2:05:58 PM
Hey Folks, the USA has nuke, and distance from PRC as its two biggest trump card. PRC has economic strangulation by ending exports to USA which would cost the USA almost as much as a nuke strick, and it also has the distance card, since it would take years for the USA to extend itself with enough conventional power to challenge the PRC and third the PRC has more manpower than the USA. Anybody think of any additional trump cards???? Sincerely, Keith
 
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WarNerd    Keith   1/15/2009 2:53:47 AM

the USA has nuke, and distance from PRC as its two biggest trump card. PRC has economic strangulation by ending exports to USA which would cost the USA almost as much as a nuke strike, and it also has the distance card, since it would take years for the USA to extend itself with enough conventional power to challenge the PRC and third the PRC has more manpower than the USA. Anybody think of any additional trump cards????
Economic strangulation by ending exports to the USA is not a trump card, it's joker.  In order to make it work China has to shutdown 40% of their economy, due to the lack of markets.  This would resulting in massive unemployment and social unrest and probably a coup / revolution.  Even if the government is not overthrown, after 3 years the only noticeable effect would be increased employment in the 3rd world due to manufacturing facilities built to replace those lost in China, and China reduced to a world trade pariah saddled with massive unpaid penalties from unilaterally broken contracts.
 
The simple facts are:
China is not the major producer of any essential goods, their only advantages are low labor costs and a totalitarian government that can guarantee labor peace.
 
The United States is the largest market on the planet.  Cut your trade with them and there is not enough demand for the leftover products, so you either shut down or the price crashes.  Even if you do find new buyers, the odds are they just plan to add on a fee and ship it to the US to sell.
 
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verong    warnerd   1/15/2009 3:25:50 PM



the USA has nuke, and distance from PRC as its two biggest trump card. PRC has economic strangulation by ending exports to USA which would cost the USA almost as much as a nuke strike, and it also has the distance card, since it would take years for the USA to extend itself with enough conventional power to challenge the PRC and third the PRC has more manpower than the USA. Anybody think of any additional trump cards????


Economic strangulation by ending exports to the USA is not a trump card, it's joker.  In order to make it work China has to shutdown 40% of their economy, due to the lack of markets.  This would resulting in massive unemployment and social unrest and probably a coup / revolution.  Even if the government is not overthrown, after 3 years the only noticeable effect would be increased employment in the 3rd world due to manufacturing facilities built to replace those lost in China, and China reduced to a world trade pariah saddled with massive unpaid penalties from unilaterally broken contracts.

 

The simple facts are:


China is not the major producer of any essential goods, their only advantages are low labor costs and a totalitarian government that can guarantee labor peace.

 

The United States is the largest market on the planet.  Cut your trade with them and there is not enough demand for the leftover products, so you either shut down or the price crashes.  Even if you do find new buyers, the odds are they just plan to add on a fee and ship it to the US to sell.




Hey there,
 
We both know your correct, but the 1970's era Arab oil embargo is something you should look into!!!
 
Sincerely,
 
Keith
 
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WarNerd       1/18/2009 4:44:58 AM

the USA has nuke, and distance from PRC as its two biggest trump card. PRC has economic strangulation by ending exports to USA which would cost the USA almost as much as a nuke strike, and it also has the distance card, since it would take years for the USA to extend itself with enough conventional power to challenge the PRC and third the PRC has more manpower than the USA. Anybody think of any additional trump cards????
Economic strangulation by ending exports to the USA is not a trump card, it's joker.  In order to make it work China has to shutdown 40% of their economy, due to the lack of markets.  This would resulting in massive unemployment and social unrest and probably a coup / revolution.  Even if the government is not overthrown, after 3 years the only noticeable effect would be increased employment in the 3rd world due to manufacturing facilities built to replace those lost in China, and China reduced to a world trade pariah saddled with massive unpaid penalties from unilaterally broken contracts.

The simple facts are:
China is not the major producer of any essential goods, their only advantages are low labor costs and a totalitarian government that can guarantee labor peace.

The United States is the largest market on the planet.  Cut your trade with them and there is not enough demand for the leftover products, so you either shut down or the price crashes.  Even if you do find new buyers, the odds are they just plan to add on a fee and ship it to the US to sell.

Hey there,

We both know your correct, but the 1970's era Arab oil embargo is something you should look into!!!

Sincerely,

Keith

I had the Arab Oil Embargo very much in mind when I wrote this.  Oil is an essential good, which is why the price can fluxuate so wildly in response to a small imbalence is supply and demand.  Nothing China export is essential to international trade in the same way.
 
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