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Subject: The Empire strikes back - Russia going West
FT_Italy    9/20/2008 5:26:57 AM
Here the Russian plan to go back at least to 1939 western border, including the partition in 3 parts of Ukraine (East, Crimea and Odessa to be directly annexed; Central, to become a satellite then be "united" to Russia as Belarus; West, the one that could stay free): http://temi.repubblica.it/limes/alla-riconquista-di-un-impero-2/
 
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FT_Italy       9/20/2008 5:28:09 AM
The link above seems not to work, try here:
 
 
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FT_Italy       9/20/2008 5:28:50 AM
 
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neutralizer       9/20/2008 6:06:53 AM
Russian nationalist dreaming.  They should leave off the vodka.  The Russian empire is kaput.  Russia is in population decline.  It is a corrupt, criminalised bureacracy.  Once countries like the Ukraine start to prosper their Russian minorities will be like the Irish in America, they'll see the 'auld country' thru the equivalent of the green miasma, lots of nostalgia but don't actually want to be part of it.  Within a few decades Russia will have a muslim majority.  Russia is the ultimate country of losers, makes most of Africa look positively hopeful
 
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FT_Italy       9/20/2008 6:29:13 AM

Russian nationalist dreaming.  They should leave off the vodka.  The Russian empire is kaput.  Russia is in population decline.  It is a corrupt, criminalised bureacracy.  Once countries like the Ukraine start to prosper their Russian minorities will be like the Irish in America, they'll see the 'auld country' thru the equivalent of the green miasma, lots of nostalgia but don't actually want to be part of it.  Within a few decades Russia will have a muslim majority.  Russia is the ultimate country of losers, makes most of Africa look positively hopeful

Indeed this the reaction of a declining country: to expand or to die.
But IMHO you make 2 mistakes.
The first, is that Russia will not be able to expand: as you can see in the map, unfortunately Europe is filled of countries who like more to trade with Moscow than to defend the freedom of some far people.
The second, is that Ukraine has not only a strong Russian minority: it has almost half the population deeply "Russianised", for culture, religion, economy; the country is deeply divided since centuries (Centre and East are Orthodox, East from the Patriarchate of Moscow itself; West is Roman Catholic and was never part of Russia until 1939-'41 then 1945-'91, but was Polish or Austrian/Hungarian).
We would also say that Russian armed forces are too bad to lead a successfull invasion in the West: but they have 1million men, plus 20millions "trained" men, to be immediately mobilise; and who outside Poland and UK would really oppose them?
 
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Godofgamblers    FT Italy   9/23/2008 7:13:28 AM
Russia would definitely like to have a buffer zone in the West; cornered by NATO, they are doing their utmost to regain a Western buffer zone.
 
I don't think even in the wildest dreams of their most fanatical nationalists do they aspire to regaining control of the Warsaw Block countries. However, they do wish to push Western influence out of the Ukraine and its neighbors, which it regards as its backyard.
 
They have at present, i would wager, a 50/50 chace of success. Ukrainian nationalism is simply not taking and the country is see-sawing back and forth between the West and the East, with preference to the East.
 
The Russians have a big advantage since many Ukrainians are ethnically Russian.  What's more, deep down, the Ukrainians don't belong to Europe in cultural terms. They have a lot more in common with the Russians than with Europe. Polish influence is very very weak and European influence even weaker. During the communist era, the Russians made up the A team and the Ukis the B team. Purging the Russkis from the elite classes wasn't a great development iin terms of the intellectual capital of the country.
 
The Donetsk mafia controls most business activities and I don't think they are infused with Ukrainian nationalism either. It looks rather dire. Much of the population is still in uniform and it is pretty much a police state despite any gov't or western rhetoric to the contrary.
 
I don't say all this in an anti Ukrainian manner. Ask any honest Ukrainian and he will tell you the same. Culturally the country is in a shambles. Statues of Shevchenko have replaced statues of Stalin, but the spirit of the country has not been transformed into a western democracy. It merely has a new set of dictators. The orange revolution was largely a Polish influenced Solidarnosc to tip the scales, but it didn't hold for long. Time is on the Russians' side as eventually the West will lose interest or be distracted by the Middle East.
 
By the way, why the interest in Eastern Europe, FT? I notice you have started a couple threads on Eastern Europe.
 
 
 
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FT_Italy       9/24/2008 4:07:09 PM

German, I think that Germany will have a lot of work to do to build up a 10million men Army, having now just 101,000 men on active service and 35,000 reservists, in an Army that is considered by many ones as almost disbanding (in 1991 there were 360,000 men).

I think also 10million is a bit exaggerate: it is the 12% of German population; likely ones many among them would be too old to serve.
On such a basis, we should then count Italian and French reserves (both countries passed to full professional Armies a few years ago) as about 7-8million men each one: a bit too much I think.
 
To tell the truth, Russian percentage is even higher: but we know, historically, which are conscription methods in Russia; and about a half of their forces are anyway "paramilitary" ones, so militia or alike, good to occupy enemy territory or guard basis, but not to fight on the frontline (but I think it is a very good idea, keeping high number/low level forces for these things); more, until last year, tha mandatory military service was still 18 months.
 
Anyway, while Russian would even mobilise everyone from 15 to 65 in event of war, having nothing to lose and everything to gain, I think European countries would mobilise very slowly and very reluctantly, maybe just wanting to lead a "phone war" like on the Rhine front until May 1940.
We have an economy that needs many men, our population is very old and our moral values are very low.
 
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FT_Italy       9/24/2008 4:30:46 PM

Russia would definitely like to have a buffer zone in the West; cornered by NATO, they are doing their utmost to regain a Western buffer zone.

 

I don't think even in the wildest dreams of their most fanatical nationalists do they aspire to regaining control of the Warsaw Block countries. However, they do wish to push Western influence out of the Ukraine and its neighbors, which it regards as its backyard.

 

They have at present, i would wager, a 50/50 chace of success. Ukrainian nationalism is simply not taking and the country is see-sawing back and forth between the West and the East, with preference to the East.

 

The Russians have a big advantage since many Ukrainians are ethnically Russian.  What's more, deep down, the Ukrainians don't belong to Europe in cultural terms. They have a lot more in common with the Russians than with Europe. Polish influence is very very weak and European influence even weaker. During the communist era, the Russians made up the A team and the Ukis the B team. Purging the Russkis from the elite classes wasn't a great development iin terms of the intellectual capital of the country.

 

The Donetsk mafia controls most business activities and I don't think they are infused with Ukrainian nationalism either. It looks rather dire. Much of the population is still in uniform and it is pretty much a police state despite any gov't or western rhetoric to the contrary.

 

I don't say all this in an anti Ukrainian manner. Ask any honest Ukrainian and he will tell you the same. Culturally the country is in a shambles. Statues of Shevchenko have replaced statues of Stalin, but the spirit of the country has not been transformed into a western democracy. It merely has a new set of dictators. The orange revolution was largely a Polish influenced Solidarnosc to tip the scales, but it didn't hold for long. Time is on the Russians' side as eventually the West will lose interest or be distracted by the Middle East.

 

By the way, why the interest in Eastern Europe, FT? I notice you have started a couple threads on Eastern Europe.

 

 


I know Ukraine is deeply splitted: as said by me too, we have about an East and a South which are Orthodox and speak Russian; and a West which is Catholic and is the "real" Ukraine.
A civil war would be very likely if Ukraine resists a Russian invasion.
 
Anyway, why got I such interest in the East? There are many reasons.
First of all, it is the nearer possible war theatre to me.
It would be a real war, not a war game like Kosovo or Iraq invasions.
It recalls to me old memories of battles, from Borodino to Kursk (and Italian armies were there both under Napoleon and under Hitler).
But above all, I think it is a crucial test to Europe: is it a rotten body, or still a vital continent?
There is no choice: living men will fight. For their own freedom if not for the Ukrainian and the Baltic one.
Because this is the question: if we let Russia make her game, we will let Russia blackmail us on energy sources and alike; if we let Russia expand west, we have no guarantee it will stop, as for Germany in I and II world war (an Italian motto says that "hunger comes when eating").
 
Then I have to admit that the idea of such a war as an ambiguous influence on me.
All things needs sometime to "regenerate": human societies often regenerate through war, or decline (with or without war). Our society is rotten as the Roman Empire one: we would need a shock, we would need to rediscover the meaning of "sacrifice" and we would need to go back to some good old morale value rather than edonism and consumism. I am afraid too it could bring to almost nothing, such a war: France declined as a society too even after WWI; West countries had just 20 years of social and economical "boom" after WWII, while UK continued to decline; but anyway it could gifts us by some year more of life for our civilisation, above all because of the great shock it would be for such a society.
And also, there is some dangerous desire to fight and experience real military life: it could sound odd said from Italy, but my family as an old tradition of service and honour; while the region (the
 
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Godofgamblers       9/24/2008 11:11:23 PM
Thanks for your very honest answer, FT. I agree that Europe appears to be in some sort of decline, but who knows? Perhaps it is merely a 'creative moment' during which Europe marshalls its forces and finds a new direction. Great empires take centuries to decline and this is perhaps not even a decline but a 'lull'. A defining moment such as war with Russia would definitely be enough to regenerate and galvanize Europe, I agree.
 
I think things will be much less dramatic, however. There will be friction over the Ukraine and other ex-Soviet states, but trade links strengthen every year and countries generally usually settle into alliances and common understandings....
 
Outside forces, I believe, are polarizing Ukrainian politics, making things more dramatic than they really are. If left to their own devices, everything would probably be just fine.
 
If you are interested in the Ukraine, I suggeste you read up on the Donetsk mafia. Many Ukrainians swear it is the only true power in Ukraiinian politics and is the real power behind the scenes.
 
 
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WarNerd       9/25/2008 3:43:16 AM

Within a few decades Russia will have a muslim majority.
Great, a muslim country with LOT's of nukes.
 
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Godofgamblers       9/25/2008 9:38:54 PM
Let me ask you one thing, FT, to continue our discussion, do you believe Ukrainian to be a language in itself or a dialect of Russian?
 
 
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