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Subject: Analysis; the beginning of a new Cold War, a protracted minor confrontation or a possible hot war
fall out    8/28/2008 11:10:27 PM
I thought I would try to create a thread for debating and discussing what is going on atm in the World; First some of the recent developments: * Georgia attacked their rebel regions backed by Russia * Russia overwhelmed the Georgian military and have and still are deep inside Georgian territory. * America confirmed with Poland and the Czech's the ABM sites will be deployed, along with the promise on America's behalf to military defence both if either come under attack from a 3rd party. * Russia not only clearly breaking the French led EU peace plan in Georgia but also successfully tested a new ICBM that would prove a harder 'hit' for America's Global ABM system. * Several NATO ships are in the Black sea delivering humanitarian aid (miltiary aid if you listen to the Russians) of which are not only witihn close proximity to Russian ground and air forces in Georgia (Russia have moved SS-21 launchers into Georgia) but also now within Russian naval ships also in the small Black Sea. * Both sides say they don't want a new cold war but neither are afraid of one. * Putin goes on CNN and further inflames the situation by blamming America, or George Bush for the current situation in Georgia. Russia after 16 years of has suffered one of their biggest territorial losses in their history, their primary enemy/competitor the West led by the US has encircled and encroached upon once loyal Russian allies in the Eastern European bloc countries. Flushed with huge oil and gas money going directly into the govt's coffers for some years now, Russia's position is being restored and she is fighting back. They have one of the biggest trade surpluses in the world as well as one of the biggest foreign exchange reserves also and export 25% of Europe's total gas consumption and 40% of their oil, the oil pipeline running through Georgia and falling supply and surging demand for energy means that the Russians could technically hold Europe to ransom, threatening to turn off the supply like they have done so with the Ukraine for example. Will the Russians go for all of Georgia? They are garnering international support also from other autocratic regimes such as the recent Central Asian forum in which Russia has the tactic support of China (and 4 other C.A'n nations). All of this is going on at a time of relative weakeness with American military forces being stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan. Europe's political will is weak and at times divided and their armed forces have shrunk dramatically since 1991. Now, what are some of the possible outcomes and future developments with this current situation? * The Ukraine being attacked also by Russia could possibly end up in a hot war with the West... * Russia could actively support anti-American forces in America's current theatre of operations including Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan... * A new arms race, which arguably has already been underway, could accelerate that could also draw in other major players such as China, India, Japan, South Korea and inflame tensions over existing conflicts and territorial confrontations. * If a hot war began or was close to, could China seize their chance whilst America's eye's are eleswhere and the World's eye's are no longer fixed on Beijing and take Taiwan? The Spratley's are also another potential hot spot with several countries, including China laying claim to the resource rich string of islands. So, what do people here think? Where are we heading? Is this the beginning of a new world order with American power and influence still pre-eminent but diminished? All of this is going on at a time where the world is going through the grip of an energy and food crisis with nations staking further claims like Russia under the Artic and even Canada recently announced their soverign claim to parts of the Northern Artic sealanes. Nations are desperately trying to secure future energy supplies, developing new one's and as the demand continues to rise and supply diminishes surely the likelyhood of a confronation or even out and out conflict is rising? Looking forward to a clean and crisp debate and discussion, FO :)
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Le Zookeeper    fall out   9/1/2008 5:56:31 AM
this is the real tamale Armenia Ukraine Moldovia nxt
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