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Subject: Germany 1938 - Russia 2008, The Lost Lessons of Appeasement?
RockyMTNClimber    8/18/2008 2:53:42 PM
The events in Georgia should give US all pause to remember similar times from the not so distant past. I believe a comparison with Modern day Russia of 2008 and the rise of Nazi Germany can't be helped. We see today a nearly perfect re-run of the events surrounding the 1938 destruction and occupation of Czechoslovakia in the lead up to WWII. Officially, Hitler used the pretense of ethnic Germans were being persecuted in those parts of the relatively new nation of Czechoslovakia. In fact these "persecutions" were ginned up with help of people inside these districts of CZ. Hitler was quoted as saying that "Czechoslovakia is a French aircraft carrier in the middle of Europe" (Craig,Germany,P.702/origins of war,Donald,p389). He only wanted to remove it as a set piece in his grander mission to conquer Europe. France and Britain negotiated away the human rights of the Czech-Slovak peoples in the vain hopes of Hitler accepting that and going no further in his plans. What we call today "appeasement". Putin/Russia today is using an identical set of complaints to advance their goals in Georgia. The recent invasion was hardly a suprise event to the Russians. They moved assets into place and set a trap for the Georgians. Some in the media and in Political/strategic debate have suggested the Georgians got what they had coming to them because they acted afirmatively in S.Ossetia there-by setting events in motion. My view of this is the Georgians had to make a move to assert their Sovereignty sooner than later. For them to wait would only have placed more of their territory (and people) in jeopardy. I am certain the Georgians could have handled this better and much discussion of their actions in and around the last couple of weeks can be debated as effective or not. Indeed clearly the Georgians lost a war that they were not prepared to fight. It seems to me however that the most important thing for the world to remember is we are at a cross roads with a very sophisticated enemy who wishes to rise again. The Russians lost the Cold War as the Germans lost the First World War. History's lesson here is quite compelling, if we allow this enemy to rise again the losses suffered in the next conflict will be a order of magnitude greater than the Cold War. The west must act in all means required (economic,diplomatic, & ultimately, military) to force Russia to live within it's recognized borders and any expansionism or renewed empire building will simply not be tolerated. Check Six Rocky
 
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dirtykraut       8/18/2008 9:31:02 PM
I see it more as a territory/border conflict than as part of a master plan of a bunch of deviously cunning Russians. Don't you think you're jumping the gun a little? Russia is a sovereign nation that has always acted independantly. They experieced a decline into relative insignificance since the end of the cold war, and now they have an improving economy that allows them to throw some weight around. While this may not be what we in the US consider "good", it's only natural behavior for any powerful nation-state.
 
I may be out of place here but your post is disturbing and bordering on war mongering xenophobia. What we need with the ruskies is a fresh start of increased cooperation. Our past conflict and competition with Russia had more to do with political "natural selection" (for lack of a better term) than any kind of hatred or grievance. We need to remember this, and try to learn from past mistakes. Take this from a guy who to this day supports the war in Iraq.
 
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RockyMTNClimber    War Mongering? Xenophobia? Seems that Churchill got called those names when he warned of one coming threat.......   8/20/2008 6:06:26 PM

I see it more as a territory/border conflict than as part of a master plan of a bunch of deviously cunning Russians. Don't you think you're jumping the gun a little? Russia is a sovereign nation that has always acted independantly. They experieced a decline into relative insignificance since the end of the cold war, and now they have an improving economy that allows them to throw some weight around. While this may not be what we in the US consider "good", it's only natural behavior for any powerful nation-state.

 

I may be out of place here but your post is disturbing and bordering on war mongering xenophobia. What we need with the ruskies is a fresh start of increased cooperation. Our past conflict and competition with Russia had more to do with political "natural selection" (for lack of a better term) than any kind of hatred or grievance. We need to remember this, and try to learn from past mistakes. Take this from a guy who to this day supports the war in Iraq.


First things first, I never said: start bombing the Reds! I am warning of a potential threat in the way that Hitler was a potential threat in the mid to late 1930's. It was the reaction that Europe of the mid to late 30's (I am speaking specifically of Britain and France) that gave Hitler the confidence to take the next step, occupy the Rhein, and the next, annex Austria, and the next, Fight for Fascists in Spain, and so on, and so on..... culminating with the capture of Czechoslovakia and the invasion of Poland when the light bulb finally went on over the allies heads that: Oh My! we are going to war! France and Brittain could have stood up to Hitler on many occasions prior to War and chose not too.
 
The time to reign in a aggressor is before he is powerful enough to make the fight close. Like now. Do that diplomatically and economically, and you won't have to fight a war. Let it just slide through appeasement and you will guarantee yourself a war, one the europeans will likely loose without US help.
 
On the subject of US help, I think the western Europeans should take the lead here and make it known that it is they who will not stand for aggression in the Georgian region. Russia will have to answer to them and these actions will not stand. If Russia wants the benefits of a liberal western economy it has to adopt the liberal pollitical interactions that flow with it with neighbors all around Russia. Whether or not they used to be under the heel of the Rodina!
 
Poisoning Ukranian politicians? Murdering outspoken media critics (sometimes on western soil)? Bears buzzing Scottland? and now invading Georgia? I know where this behavior came from but who can say where it will lead?
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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00_Chem_AJB       8/20/2008 8:30:30 PM
I still think we are stuck between a rock and a hard place when it comes to dealing with Russia at this point in time, we isolate them and send them to the dog house they become feral; we will be giving them the political fuel they need to keep the fires of a new cold war burning and thus choking the world with a smoke cloud of fear. Past dictators used fear to keep their population under control, our isolation of Russia will be used to keep their population humming to the tune of their nationalistic government. Ignoring this will cause the Russian leadership to think themselves stronger than they are, this could well lead to another war. 
The Russian point of view:
 
They see Saakashvili as we saw Saddam
They fear the ABM system because it is based in a country which basically hates Russia (Poland)
They don't understand why NATO a Cold War relic is still around while the Warsaw pact was dissolved.
 
We can't change their mind, but we can work round it, why make an enemy when you can make an ally? Will Russia fear NATO if it is part of it? Ignoring the political bullshit red tape which prevents Russia joining, if they were in, then these hostilities wouldn't exist whould they? This would force them to make a choice; show they can not just act but become a weatern-like country or show themselves to be the Russia as we saw them back in the Cold War, if you are under the sun shine you can't hide in the shadows.
 
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xylene       8/20/2008 10:07:50 PM
The underlying thing that is bolstering Russia and ilk such as Iran and Venzuela is oil profits being gained with high oil prices. Find a way to reduce the need for oil thus deflating the price, thus taking away the bank from these guys. Energy independence will pay dividends for our economy and will have positive effects in the geopolitical situation. It is insane to enter an arms race if we will be paying for our stuff AND the enemies arms too.
 
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Godofgamblers    hey rocky   8/20/2008 11:12:53 PM
Rocky, this is a comparison that i have been noting on SP for the past couple years and I believe recent events are bearing out my interpretation more and more.
 
I think you are quite right in exploring the similarities/differences of the analogy. The West's role in all this too must be looked upon with a critical eye. i.e. why was Germany demonized and pushed down this path and why are we doing the same to Russia?
 
A few notes about the Polish defence that many people don't know about. The Polish plan "Zachod" to defend the country was ill-conceived because it allowed for no strategic depth. Polish forces stood on the border instead of allowing themselves space to maneuver. However, this was not entirely a Polish mistake, as the French and British had craftily worded their alliance with Poland as to not guarantee the integrity of Polish territory. As Poland had justifiable fears that the Germans wanted Silesia/Slask, their industrialized area on the German border, the Poles feeared a Sudetenland land-grab type attack. For this reason, they placed their troops on the borders where their lines were broken and their forces enveloped.
 
The French and Brits also knew the contents of the secret Russian/German treaty annex, which set out the double Soviet/German invasion. However, for unknown reasons, the French and Brits chose NOT to tell the Poles of this. As a result, Polish defence plans were antiquated the moment they were adopted. The Romanian bridgehead plan was immediately not viable.
 
Thirdly, the French convinced the Poles not to mobilize their troops, even though the Germans had mobilized and were set to attack. The French reasoning was that they were afraid the Poles may "upset" the Nazis if they mobilized. As a result, when the attack came, the Poles were not up to full strength and the mobilization added to the chaotic logistics situation.
 
Finally, the French and Brits never came to the aid of the Poles militarily, leaving them to fight against two deadly foes at the same time.
 
Thus, although the Poles had a nearly impossible fight to begin with, it was made much worse by the quality of their allies. With allies like the 1939 French and Brits, it is better not to have any allies at all. I'm sure you will agree with me.
 
The point of all this is, if we are back in 1939, we should all afford much better assistance to our allies and not repeat the same mistakes of 1939.
 
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Godofgamblers    hey rocky   8/20/2008 11:15:04 PM

I still think we are stuck between a rock and a hard place when it comes to dealing with Russia at this point in time, we isolate them and send them to the dog house they become feral; we will be giving them the political fuel they need to keep the fires of a new cold war burning and thus choking the world with a smoke cloud of fear. Past dictators used fear to keep their population under control, our isolation of Russia will be used to keep their population humming to the tune of their nationalistic government. Ignoring this will cause the Russian leadership to think themselves stronger than they are, this could well lead to another war. 


The Russian point of view:

 

They see Saakashvili as we saw Saddam

They fear the ABM system because it is based in a country which basically hates Russia (Poland)

They don't understand why NATO a Cold War relic is still around while the Warsaw pact was dissolved.

 

We can't change their mind, but we can work round it, why make an enemy when you can make an ally? Will Russia fear NATO if it is part of it? Ignoring the political bullshit red tape which prevents Russia joining, if they were in, then these hostilities wouldn't exist whould they? This would force them to make a choice; show they can not just act but become a weatern-like country or show themselves to be the Russia as we saw them back in the Cold War, if you are under the sun shine you can't hide in the shadows.


I agree completely, chem buddy. But didn't Yeltsin ask for Russia to become part of the NATO, only to be snubbed? I think after that, the Russians decided the writing was on the wall and that peace and cooperation with the west was not in the cards.
 
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Le Zookeeper    Absolutely wrong analysis Rocky   8/20/2008 11:56:00 PM
Wen Mikhail Gorbachev dismantled the Soviet Union- the deal was that Russia would not intervene in Eastern Europe and NATO would not establish bases in Eatern Europe. So gfar the belligerence is all of US/NATO making and Russia is feebling responding. Georgia is a small issue. I magine if Russia won cold war and established ABM in Puerto Rico and Mexico. Point is -US underestimated Russia. Plz so did Germany in WW2. This is purely a result of US and/or Western Europe belligerence.
 
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Godofgamblers    question: rocky   8/21/2008 12:08:03 AM
By the way, Rocky, why is there no mention on SP of the 10 french peacekeepers that were killed in Afghan? Maybe i'm just not looking in the right place. Lot of talk in the French press about that. How it happened, rumours that friendly fire did it, questions over Francae's future role, etc. Lot to discuss. Maybe I should start a thread?
 
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Jimme    The writing is indeed on the wall   8/21/2008 3:36:14 AM
And in the history books. GoG is ever the Russian apologist =). The similarities of German actions and global inaction then and Russian actions vs world inaction now are so similar its scary. The fact that people would even debate the eerie deja vu goes to show that the world still hasn't learned. Only way to stop an aggressor cold is with a quick decisive aggressive action of your own. Anything less only shows weakness and rewards the aggressive action.
 
GoG i'm sorry but trying to say that the west drove Russia into its current aggressor state is like blaming a community for the actions of a murderer. I just don't buy it. The Russian leader ship is comprised of former KGB goons who have long harbored a hatred for the west and nothing we could have done would have changed that. Just look at their treatment of their own people.
 
 Its funny that some people won't realize things till it hits them in the face. A year ago a US vs Russia thread was chided for being "outdated" and "unrealistic" because we're allies now  right?  Two democracies wouldn't war with each other.  That thread doesn't seem so stupid now huh, only a year later.
 
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00_Chem_AJB    Eye for an eye Jimme...   8/21/2008 9:29:51 AM
And every one ends up blind. Russia may well be under the control of ex KGB commanders and thugs, that's not our falut, but your responce would play into their hands as far as rallying the support of their population behind them, we would give them purpose. Think about Iran, the government is very unpopular due to econmonic and social termoil, but if an outside power attacks they will stand up for the crooks and thugs who lead them, with Russia they already support their government we don't want to cement that support. The Russian people are extremely patriotic, if we put our foot down they will push back, we can't allow the Russian government to deamonise the West any further, otherwise it's going to take even more generations to heal the rift between the two.
 
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