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Subject: Germany 1938 - Russia 2008, The Lost Lessons of Appeasement?
RockyMTNClimber    8/18/2008 2:53:42 PM
The events in Georgia should give US all pause to remember similar times from the not so distant past. I believe a comparison with Modern day Russia of 2008 and the rise of Nazi Germany can't be helped. We see today a nearly perfect re-run of the events surrounding the 1938 destruction and occupation of Czechoslovakia in the lead up to WWII. Officially, Hitler used the pretense of ethnic Germans were being persecuted in those parts of the relatively new nation of Czechoslovakia. In fact these "persecutions" were ginned up with help of people inside these districts of CZ. Hitler was quoted as saying that "Czechoslovakia is a French aircraft carrier in the middle of Europe" (Craig,Germany,P.702/origins of war,Donald,p389). He only wanted to remove it as a set piece in his grander mission to conquer Europe. France and Britain negotiated away the human rights of the Czech-Slovak peoples in the vain hopes of Hitler accepting that and going no further in his plans. What we call today "appeasement". Putin/Russia today is using an identical set of complaints to advance their goals in Georgia. The recent invasion was hardly a suprise event to the Russians. They moved assets into place and set a trap for the Georgians. Some in the media and in Political/strategic debate have suggested the Georgians got what they had coming to them because they acted afirmatively in S.Ossetia there-by setting events in motion. My view of this is the Georgians had to make a move to assert their Sovereignty sooner than later. For them to wait would only have placed more of their territory (and people) in jeopardy. I am certain the Georgians could have handled this better and much discussion of their actions in and around the last couple of weeks can be debated as effective or not. Indeed clearly the Georgians lost a war that they were not prepared to fight. It seems to me however that the most important thing for the world to remember is we are at a cross roads with a very sophisticated enemy who wishes to rise again. The Russians lost the Cold War as the Germans lost the First World War. History's lesson here is quite compelling, if we allow this enemy to rise again the losses suffered in the next conflict will be a order of magnitude greater than the Cold War. The west must act in all means required (economic,diplomatic, & ultimately, military) to force Russia to live within it's recognized borders and any expansionism or renewed empire building will simply not be tolerated. Check Six Rocky
 
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RockyMTNClimber    Fench Losses in Afghanistan   8/21/2008 10:22:45 AM

By the way, Rocky, why is there no mention on SP of the 10 french peacekeepers that were killed in Afghan? Maybe i'm just not looking in the right place. Lot of talk in the French press about that. How it happened, rumours that friendly fire did it, questions over Francae's future role, etc. Lot to discuss. Maybe I should start a thread?


ht***tp://strategypage.com/messageboards/board54.asp
 
There is a thread about the French in the French Union board. God bless those brave men, may their sacrifices not be in vain.
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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RockyMTNClimber    Xylene and Rocky agree!!!   8/21/2008 10:31:05 AM

The underlying thing that is bolstering Russia and ilk such as Iran and Venzuela is oil profits being gained with high oil prices. Find a way to reduce the need for oil thus deflating the price, thus taking away the bank from these guys. Energy independence will pay dividends for our economy and will have positive effects in the geopolitical situation. It is insane to enter an arms race if we will be paying for our stuff AND the enemies arms too.
 
I don't think this is simply a issue of energy independence but western energy independence will certainly inhibit Russia's ability to act on their aggressive nature. You and I agree completely then that the west should seek energy resources that do not include sending cash to the despots of the world. I suspect we might disagree on how that is accomplished though!
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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RockyMTNClimber    Some more thoughts on decisions made...   8/21/2008 10:50:51 AM
 
How often does one get a do over in life? Answer: almost never. In the US there is an office supply company who advertises shopping with them is like having an easy button. You push the button and your world's problems evaporate and the very worst of times become, manageable.
 
If anybody got a easy button / do over it is Russia. They lost several hudred million citizens in the last century to their own barbarity (Stalin & communism) and to a foreign invader (Germany, twice actually) with whom they had signed a treaty to carve up Europe. These folks made their own luck and all of it was bad. About as bad as it gets. They even spawned a clone of themselves on their own southern border who nearly went to war with them (Mao's China).  After that, they fought a 40-50 year war with the liberal western economy in an attempt to take over the world. The net result of these 10 or so consecutive 5 year plans was a nation that is/was bankrupt, depopulated, surrounded by enemies who hated them because of their barbarity, completely exhausted and without a moral compass. Lets face facts. Spare me please a great deal of pitty for a nation who have caused more death and destruction among humans than any other in history.
 
Do over? Yeah, they struck oil. Lots of it and quite frankly like mana from heaven were given another chance to redeem themselves. They have an opportunity to finance their growth into the 21st century, educate their people, make amends for their past with their enemies, finally a break.
 
Question: What have they got to show for that golden opportunity?
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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FJV    No   8/21/2008 12:26:53 PM
In my opinion more like Serbia prior to WW1 with establishing all new kinds of treaties and precedents that can act as a means to escalate a minor conflict into a major war between several great powers.
 

 
 
 

 
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Godofgamblers    FJV   8/22/2008 3:13:55 AM

In my opinion more like Serbia prior to WW1 with establishing all new kinds of treaties and precedents that can act as a means to escalate a minor conflict into a major war between several great powers.

 




 

 

 






Interesting, but can you be more specific?
 
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Godofgamblers    FJV   8/22/2008 3:18:26 AM

And in the history books. GoG is ever the Russian apologist =). The similarities of German actions and global inaction then and Russian actions vs world inaction now are so similar its scary. The fact that people would even debate the eerie deja vu goes to show that the world still hasn't learned. Only way to stop an aggressor cold is with a quick decisive aggressive action of your own. Anything less only shows weakness and rewards the aggressive action.

 

GoG i'm sorry but trying to say that the west drove Russia into its current aggressor state is like blaming a community for the actions of a murderer. I just don't buy it. The Russian leader ship is comprised of former KGB goons who have long harbored a hatred for the west and nothing we could have done would have changed that. Just look at their treatment of their own people.

 

 Its funny that some people won't realize things till it hits them in the face. A year ago a US vs Russia thread was chided for being "outdated" and "unrealistic" because we're allies now  right?  Two democracies wouldn't war with each other.  That thread doesn't seem so stupid now huh, only a year later.



Am I? Is my bias showing hehe ? I admit I'm pro-Slav, but if push comes to shove, I'd choose the Poles over the Russians, to tell you the truth:)
I agree with you that the KGB has filled a vacuum in Russia, but things didn't have to go that way..... that's my point.
 
I think we're in the area of another "Great Game" though, not all out war, because it would be a war that Russia could never win, and it knows it.
 
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RockyMTNClimber    GOG reply   8/22/2008 10:03:58 AM
I think we're in the area of another "Great Game" though, not all out war, because it would be a war that Russia could never win, and it knows it.<GOG
 
The problem is, at this point of the "Game" it is impossible to tell whether or not the Russians "know it". If it is a game, it is a game of chicken played with hundreds of millions of lives at stake (today billions). It does not have to be so either. The west has an opportunity to stand up to the Russians and force them to back down (again, by west I mean western europe more than USA). That would be good for the Russians and the other parties involved in Georgia. Absent these influences the west can encourage the Georgians to make sense of their domestic policies to retain their internal integrity.
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
GOG side note: My daughter spent a year in Prague and now speaks/reads Russian, Slovak, and Czech very fluently. Funny world.
 
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Godofgamblers       8/23/2008 10:30:24 AM

I think we're in the area of another "Great Game" though, not all out war, because it would be a war that Russia could never win, and it knows it.<GOG

 

The problem is, at this point of the "Game" it is impossible to tell whether or not the Russians "know it". If it is a game, it is a game of chicken played with hundreds of millions of lives at stake (today billions). It does not have to be so either. The west has an opportunity to stand up to the Russians and force them to back down (again, by west I mean western europe more than USA). That would be good for the Russians and the other parties involved in Georgia. Absent these influences the west can encourage the Georgians to make sense of their domestic policies to retain their internal integrity.

 

Check Six

 

Rocky

 

GOG side note: My daughter spent a year in Prague and now speaks/reads Russian, Slovak, and Czech very fluently. Funny world.



wow, you should be proud of her. Those are very hard languages, esp. czech. the pronunciation is a killer hehe
the world needs more eastern european specialist in these troubled times, mark my words. i'm impressed she's cosmopolitan and has such an intellectual appetite like her father. send her my best.
 
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eldnah       8/23/2008 11:04:47 AM
When empires breakup and countries are created or recreated there has always been a certain degree of ethnic and territorial chaos that, unfortunately, has often been settled by force od arms. One of the reasons Chamberlain agreed with Hitler at Munich was the Sudetenland of the 1918 born Czechoslovakia was full of native Germanic people. He and many others saw it as righteous not appeasement. If the Abkazian and South Ossetian people truely, and the "Truely" I don't know for sure, wanted to remain with Russia after the breakup of the USSR should they have not have been allowed to? The theorey of "The Self-determination of Peoples" is  complex but it particularly comes into play with the break up of artificial empires.
 
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