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Subject: Russia / Georgia in all out war...
The Lizard King    8/8/2008 9:40:38 AM
Russia has invaded Georgia.
 
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Hugo    From the NYT   8/17/2008 4:39:38 PM
Military Analysis - Russians Melded Old-School Blitz With Modern Military Tactics - Military Analysis - NYTimes.com

Russians Melded Old-School Blitz With Modern Military Tactics

WASHINGTON — Russia?s victorious military blitz into the former Soviet republic of Georgia brought something old and something new — but none of it was impromptu, despite appearances that a long-frozen conflict had suddenly turned hot.

The Russian military borrowed a page from classic Soviet-era doctrine: Moscow?s commanders sent an absolutely overwhelming force into Georgia. It was never going to be an even fight, and the outcome was predictable, if not preordained.

At the same time, the Russian military picked up what is new from the latest in military thinking, including American military writings about the art of war, replete with the hard-learned lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan.

So along with the old-school onslaught of infantry, armor and artillery, Russia mounted joint air and naval operations, appeared to launch simultaneous cyberattacks on Georgian government Web sites and had its best English speakers at the ready to make Moscow?s case in television appearances.

If the rapidly unfolding events caught much of the world off guard, that kind of coordination of the old and the new did not look accidental to military professionals.

?They seem to have harnessed all their instruments of national power — military, diplomatic, information — in a very disciplined way,? said one Pentagon official, who like others interviewed for this article disclosed details of the operation under ground rules that called for anonymity. ?It appears this was well thought out and planned in advance, and suggests a level of coordination in the Russian government between the military and the other civilian agencies and departments that we are striving for today.?

In fact, Pentagon and military officials say Russia held a major ground exercise in July just north of Georgia?s border, called Caucasus 2008, that played out a chain of events like the one carried out over recent days.

?This exercise was exactly what they executed in Georgia just a few weeks later,? said Dale Herspring, an expert on Russian military affairs at Kansas State University. ?This exercise was a complete dress rehearsal.?

Russian commentators have countered that more than 1,000 American military personnel were in Georgia for an exercise last month. But that exercise focused on counterinsurgency operations to prepare a Georgian brigade for duty in Iraq, a different mission from the seizing of territory or denying an aggressor a new stake on the land.

Even as the Russian military succeeded at its most obvious objectives — taking control of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, humiliating the Georgian government and crippling army and police units — serious shortcomings on the Russian side were revealed, Pentagon and military officials said.

To the surprise of American military officers, an impaired Georgian air-defense system was able to down at least six Russian jets. The Sukhoi-25, an aging ground attack plane, appeared to be the most vulnerable.

Georgia never has fielded an integrated, nationwide air defense system, and those ground-to-air weapons that survived early Russian shelling operated without any central control — and some without battle-command radars, as they were destroyed by Russian strikes.

Th

 
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DGreat1    Russia is Ruthless   8/17/2008 4:52:32 PM
Russia cannot afford a nuclear exchange with America at this point. As always, they were overly aggressive. They killed over two thousand people in Georgia only to agree to pull their forces back tomorrow when challenged by America. All of that killing and they gained very  little unless you consider the possibility that their aim was to damage Americas relationship with its Georgian coalition partners in addition to sending out a stern messge to America's other coalition partners. The message appears to be that nations should be careful not to become a flashpoint for Russia's intervention, as their intervention will be certain and severe in nature. Time will tell if Russia was successful  in damaging the relationship between America and its coalition partners, although it is important to note that Georgia has pulled forces out of Iraq. Al Qaeda used the same strategy against Spain a few years ago when they facilitated the removal of Spanish troops from Iraq by launching a vicious terrorist attack in Spain. Russia is as ruthless now as they ever were in the past. 
 
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VelocityVector    Status Quo 17-08-2008   8/17/2008 5:40:45 PM
Status Quo
From the Irish Times:
"Poti is bombed back to the last decade, Gori is flattened and life in Tbilisi remains okay. All just as the economy was outperforming India; it has now been blown to bits," said the doctor, who has had to cut his 20 medical staff to a skeleton crew of eight.
Fellow Irishman Jeffrey Kent runs a contracting firm in Georgia which drills for gold and copper on behalf of a Russian company, and had to evacuate his Romanian drillers via Armenia.
 
He said: "I had to get the Romanian guys evacuated last Friday by crossing the border into Armenia. As they were passing a military airfield at Marneuli near the border some Russian Mig planes just dropped in and bombed the runway. They were only 300m from the explosions and did not get injured, but they were very traumatised. They are in Romania now and do not want to come back." Originally from Terryglass, Co Tipperary, Mr Kent is a contractor for a Russian miner in the town of Kazreti, about a 90-minute drive from Tbilisi.
 
"I will stay here and work from here until things settle down. My only concern is if the locals take it out on the Russian company."
 
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2008/0816/1218836130174.html

v^2
 
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The Lizard King    Hugo   8/18/2008 3:18:30 AM
I said-

"This mess could have been avoided if Europe let Georgia into NATO."
 
You said-
 
"had convinced other European members that Georgia should be admitted."
 
 
So we agree this was yet another European blunder.  Say old storyline of American having to pickup the pieces caused by European mistakes...
 
 
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Hugo    LK   8/18/2008 7:23:17 AM

I said-



"This mess could have been avoided if Europe let Georgia into NATO."

 

You said-

 

"had convinced other European members that Georgia should be admitted."

 

 

So we agree this was yet another European blunder.  Say old storyline of American having to pickup the pieces caused by European mistakes...

 


 
  It would be best if you didn't make assumptions about what we agree on.  
 
  I fail to see how this is "Europe's" fault.  Your old story line about America "having to pickup the pieces caused by European mistakes..."  is indeed old..  as old as it is inaccurate.
 
I just told you that the Georgian president told international media that Germany was the instigator of efforts to give Georgia membership - and I would, from what I have read, add the United States to that list.   Chancellor Merkel stated clearly yesterday that Georgia would become a member of Nato and it was only a question of when and no longer if.  Even the US is not certain at what time Georgia should be granted entry and as such has not committed to a membership action plan.
 
But since you raised the issue of picking up the pieces.  This little foray by Russia was, in part, sparked by an overconfident Georgia, perhaps encouraged by US protection of Kosovars and messenges from Washington that indicated Georgia would be provided protection.  Russia called that bluff, now the current US administration has egg on its face.  Furthermore, Russia stated categorically at the time of Kosovo's independence that it would then not feel restricted in supporting separatist efforts in Georgia.  
 
 So there you have it Lizard King, the now almost century of overwhelming f#ck-ups by the US in the balkans - beginning with Wilson - has led to another crisis that the Europeans - led by Germany - is now trying to resolve - or as you might put it "pickup the pieces." 
 
Perhaps you're unaware that Europe is at best Hellene, not Rome. 
 
 
 


 
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The Lizard King       8/19/2008 6:10:55 AM
Everypoint you try to raise is so after the fact.
 
"now the current US administration has egg on its face"
 
The current situation does not make America bad.  I know Europe has been breast-feed since the Marshall Plan, but come on, can't Europe handle anything that occurs in the backyard?  -From Kosovar to Iran to Georgia, Europe has not shown the world she is capable of doing anything.
 
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Hugo    LK   8/19/2008 7:42:47 AM

Everypoint you try to raise is so after the fact.

 

"now the current US administration has egg on its face"

 

The current situation does not make America bad.  I know Europe has been breast-feed since the Marshall Plan, but come on, can't Europe handle anything that occurs in the backyard?  -From Kosovar to Iran to Georgia, Europe has not shown the world she is capable of doing anything.


  After the fact is appropriate when one isn't aware of the facts.  I didn't say the current US administration made the US look bad..  Bush's policy in the Balkans hasn't differed from that of Clinton.  There is a strong red thread of incompetence thatis a decade shy of a century.
 
You don't know that "Europe" has been breastfed since the Marshall Plan -another good old wives tale but you really need to scratch a little deeper than the comic book view of history that you seem to subscribe to.  I happen to be well studied in economic history / development.
 
I had to chuckle at your description of Iran and Georgia being in "Europe's" backyard - I believe a quick glance at a map might be in order.  Personally, I don't like the ideas of backyards - that's Russian thinking. Again, Kosovo was largely your problem because you created it.  I can't recall Germany rewarding a terrorist sponsoring state with its own empire in 1919 or again in 1945 - and it doesn't do the American name any good to raise the issue of it's support for the creation of an independent state that is not only lacks viability but is "run" by a coalition of people smugglers, drug dealers and persons connected to islamic terrorists - but hey, I don't work in your State Department so what the hell do I know?  Cause and effect doesn't seem to be one of your, or those drafting your foreign policies, strong suits sir. 
 
As for Europe not being capable of anything, that's certainly an interesting assertion.  Unique in the history of mankind has been the peaceful expansion of the European Union which has not only has been the strongest contributor to peace on that continent but is also a club that has other countries waiting in long lines to join.  The fact that Europe isn't united politically is a good thing in my view and I hope that it remains so.  That that should result in disunity on questions of Kosovo is the price one pays for the sovereignty of foreign policy - something that you used to your advantage on the question of Iraq which I presume is just another notch in the list of things your country has shown to be "capable".  Would you rate that adventure as being higher or lower on that list than Katrina which I can assure you was most certainly in your backyard?
 
Speaking of capability, I must say that it's depressing that in less than a generation after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States is shown to be equally impotent in aiding a small state invaded by Russia as "Europe" is - I say equally impotent although to be fair to "Europe" at least she was able to draft a cease-fire - but I suppose that is the reward for possessing effective negotiating skills.  The serious decline of your country, and I say this with the utmost sincerity, is the real catastrophe sir.

 
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The Lizard King       8/19/2008 8:57:12 AM
 ?There is a strong red thread of incompetence thatis a decade shy of a century.?

I do recall a certain air force of a certain nation called Germany that took place in the Kosovo War

?You don't know that "Europe" has been breastfed since the Marshall Plan -another good old wives tale but you really need to scratch a little deeper than the comic book view of history that you seem to subscribe to.  I happen to be well studied in economic history / development.?

Funny how you say a lot without saying anything. The above blurb contains nothing relevant to this discussion.

?Personally, I don't like the ideas of backyards?

Which is why you will probably have nuclear neighbors in the near future and a submissive relationship to master Russia who Europe has rather nicely put herself in energy dependency.

?Unique in the history of mankind has been the peaceful expansion of the European Union which has not only has been the strongest contributor to peace on that continent but is also a club that has other countries waiting in long lines to join.?

And what does that have to do with anything? America has done more to protect Europe than the Europeans themselves. World War I was the last European war in which the Europeans put more men into the field and deployed greater financial assets than the United States. What is unique about ?Peaceful Europe? is that mankind has words like Holocaust, Ethnic Cleansing, and World Wars in her Vernacular because of Europe.

?I say equally impotent although to be fair to "Europe" at least she was able to draft a cease-fire?

LMFAO. Are you kidding me??? Yeah that piece of paper makes all the difference in the World.

 
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The Lizard King       8/19/2008 9:05:05 AM
"Unique in the history of mankind has been the peaceful expansion of the European Union which has not only has been the strongest contributor to peace on that continent but is also a club that has other countries waiting in long lines to join."
 
This is a result of American no longer leaving Europe to her own devices. 
 
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Hugo       8/19/2008 10:18:43 AM

 ?There is a strong red thread of incompetence thatis a decade shy of a century.?

I do recall a certain air force of a certain nation called Germany that took place in the Kosovo War


?You don't know that "Europe" has been breastfed since the Marshall Plan -another good old wives tale but you really need to scratch a little deeper than the comic book view of history that you seem to subscribe to.  I happen to be well studied in economic history / development.?


Funny how you say a lot without saying anything. The above blurb contains nothing relevant to this discussion.


?Personally, I don't like the ideas of backyards?


Which is why you will probably have nuclear neighbors in the near future and a submissive relationship to master Russia who Europe has rather nicely put herself in energy dependency.


?Unique in the history of mankind has been the peaceful expansion of the European Union which has not only has been the strongest contributor to peace on that continent but is also a club that has other countries waiting in long lines to join.?


And what does that have to do with anything? America has done more to protect Europe than the Europeans themselves. World War I was the last European war in which the Europeans put more men into the field and deployed greater financial assets than the United States. What is unique about ?Peaceful Europe? is that mankind has words like Holocaust, Ethnic Cleansing, and World Wars in her Vernacular because of Europe.


?I say equally impotent although to be fair to "Europe" at least she was able to draft a cease-fire?


LMFAO. Are you kidding me??? Yeah that piece of paper makes all the difference in the World.



Re Germany and Kosovo..  Yes, Germany also screwed up in following the US line on Kosovo..  agreed.
 
I responded to your comment re the Marshall Plan and breast feeding..  you've managed to insult yourself.  Of course responding to your original cheap swipe is not going to be anything of substance.
 
Europe is currently dependent on Russian oil but Russia is also dependent on "Europe" as a market.  I am confident that Europe can develop alternative technologies to provide energy and if they don't they can adopt nuclear.
 
More to protect Europe than Europe?  Maybe but then with a Europe in Soviet Hands you probably weren't going to do too well either..  Extinguished the fire in your neighbours' house to prevent it spreading to yours.  Not that "Europe" ought not to be grateful. 
 
Your statement regarding US fielding more soldiers than Europe since WW2 is consistent with the rest of your recent display of European history and has already been dealt with by NGI.  Add it to the Marshall Plan and European geography to your list of topics requiring (considerable)  further study.
 
A lot has happened in Europe yes but to believe that ethnic cleansing, which some might state your country's very origin was dependent on, is somehow uniquely European then there's no helping you.
 
I am not kidding you re the cease-fire.  While Condoleeza Rice the so called Russian expert was busy doing nothing but cheerleading, European negotiators at least got a little commitment, whether it amounts to anything is yet to be seen but it can't do worse than achieving nothing which is the precisely what Washington has managed to date.  
 
If you are finding solace in criticising "Europe" to mask the last ten years of US decline then I hope it's working for you. Personally, I would be much more concerned with introspection with the hope of reversal but then it should already be obvious that we are very different personalities.  
 
 
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