I feel that India would be the winner - in part because of its experience at blue water fleet activity, in part its capability to project firepower with a larger/better equipped surface group and in part because of geographic location.

 

The key here is India can bottle up the Chinese fleet and cut off the PRC oil imports via the Malaka Straits.  The same cannot be said of offensive actions against India.  The PLAN would have to transit the Straits in order to enter the Indian ocean.  They will be very vulnerable to air strikes from Indian carriers, missiles from surface ships, and sub attacks.  The real killer would be if India elected to mine the Straits and do a blockade.

 

The biggest threat to Indian fleet activity would be the PRC sub force.  The PLAN surface forces are very vulnerable once outside of air cover from the mainland and away from the 2nd Artillery missile sites.

I have to agree completely with Softwar.

 

The Indians have a stronger blue-water navy than do the Chinese to begin with.  Coupled with the fact that if the Indians played the game correctly they would force the Chinese to come to them away from their land-based air and artillery, its a no brainer.  Indians now, and in 10 years no matter what the Chinese claim to be building up. 

India is the odds on favorite due to it's experience in carrier aviation and a more modern western style navy. China does have a small number of nuclear submarines that once in the Indian Ocean could become a nusance (getting there would be problematic as well as the fact China can't seem to keep them at sea overnight without breaking down....). India also has actually fought wars with her navy (against the old PLA ally Pakistan).

 

I am trying to think of a scenario where the hostilities are limited to naval power and not part of a larger continental war.

 

Check Six

 

Rocky

Depends where the action was to take place. India would have the upper hand near India, China would have the advantage if near China. Not sure of status of Chinese naval assets in Burma, but I suspect an Indian assault would precipitate potentially larger conflict on shared border. I think India would find it difficult to conduct commerce raiding unless it took it to the shores of China, where China would have the advantage of shore based assets. Mining the Malacca Straits would strangle a sizable chunk of world trade and cut into oil supply for Japan and US West Coast. Not sure how they could determine targets since commercial oil tankers are routed many times while underway. Can't be sure where a tanker eastbound in Malacca Straits is going. Captain and crew sometimes don't know since cargo is traded and alternate ports may be used. 

I just see it becoming a mess. It would be very difficult to make tankers adhere to declared port 2 months in advance. It would take out so much optionality in shipping and oil trading market that there would be very large commercial interests opposed to this. So if a Nowegian tanker declares a port in Korea and diverts to China, would the Indians sieze it when it's ballasting back to Middle East with no cargo at all on it. They may as well be declaring war on Norway. I'm sure the Russians won't stand having their ships or cargos confiscated by India. 

The market may sort it out, China would just buy more refined product from Singapore and Singapore would ramp up crude refining. India would then have to try and maintain a presence in South China Sea to effectively stop direct shipping.  

It is inconceivable to me that Japan, US, Australia, Singapore, and other nations, would allow the straits to be seized in a despute between India-China (Unless they took sides and enforced the blockade for one side or the other). That is just way to important a choke point to allow it to be populated with sleeper torpedos or mines or snorkling SSKs. The straits are currently patroled aggresively by the above PacRim allies in a clear statement of free navigation.

 

India would have to choke China at her shores IMV or get broader allied participation. China would have to do likewise to effect India's merchant traffic.

 

Check Six

 

Rocky