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Subject: What if...Italy splits in two or more parts?
FT_Italy    7/8/2008 11:14:15 AM
Italy is seeing difficult times, politically and socially, and now economically too (as the entire West World). Since well before unity, contemporary Italy was always deeply divided by geography, climate, folk culture/language and ethnicity. I do not mean simply North vs. South, which is anyway the main division: but also Venice vs. Turin or Bologna vs. Rome or Palermo vs. Naples. Despite state propaganda, this situation was and is well known to all Italians, north to south, rich and poor, right-wing and left-wing. Also, many people (as Sardinians, Venetians, Sicilians) feel themselves first as their region inhabitants rather than part of the nation (so e.g. a Venetian feel himself as Venetian and Italian, but above all as Venetian, while a Roman is Italian at all). And, moreover, the "external" view of this by other regions marks the differences even more (e.g. here in Veneto we feel different from Bologna and very different from Naples, while Bologna inhabitants feel us different as well and Neapolitans consider ourselves as "Germans", I mean the way Catalunyans or Scottish feel different from Spanish or English). Now, during difficult times, the deep and old divisions come out. More, they are economically and socially sanctioned. Dividing Italy in 3, we have from Eurostat data: - North: pro-capite wealth among the richest European countries; educational system among the best ones; - Centre: high pro-capite wealth, comparable or slightly more than germany and Sweden; educational system on average or slightly below european standards; - South: the poorest European area, worse than Portugal or Greece; educational system at the level of Mexico. More, the north-east area including Triveneto and Lombardia ("Lombardo-Veneto") is even wealthier and better educated, and its manufacturing industry is likely the best for direct profits of Europe (considering the amount of income due to production of goods and services, and taking the costs to buy materials, goods and services to produce the first ones, Lombardo-Veneto has an yearly 6.6billions€ gain vs. 5.5billions€ gain for entire Germany) and a strong "national feeling" about culture, identity and society. So, what about Italy in a few years splitting into 3-4-5 states? or in the event of North declaring its indipendence (with likely Venetia/Lombardo-Veneto to become indipendent from the North)? What would, in your opinion, be the consequences for other "small countries" in Europe, like Scotland, Basque Countries, Catalunya, Corsica etc. willing to become indipendent? And how would EU, NATO, UN, Russia react to this secession?
 
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eldnah       7/8/2008 1:48:59 PM
The Italian situation appears to differ from the other European situations in that there is not the desire of a minority group wanting independence nor two poorly compatible regions seeking separation but a wealthy region wanting to be free of a dysfunctional region. I have seen no serious evidence of a desire among the northern regions for balkanizing themselves. I am hard pressed to recall a historical incidence of a country ridding itself of a contiguous part that wanted to remain in the nation.
 
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FT_Italy       7/9/2008 8:15:42 AM

I would say that the UK and Belgium have a bigger chance of splitting compared to Italy.   The Italian parts dont show signs of developing a own nationality, compared to Scotland - England  or  Flamish to Wallonia.


If, for "own nationality", you mean: own language, own culture, own traditions, own economy, own old state, own national identity, Italy has more than one community alone which would develop its own nationality.
I know that very few people in the World know enough about Italy, as many Italians know very little about outer world, and the demonstration is how often I see American papers or programs misunderstanding Italian people with Latino-America people or Italian language with Spanish language: but Italy has never been a real united country, as i would say for France or England, where a strong and ancient state or a united unique community did the job to create a strong nation.
Of course, we are no more in 1850 or 1550: but we can still divide Italy among different communities with different identities. Cities as Milan, Turin, Bologna were strongly "Italianised" during XXth century due to massive immigration from South Italy, and cities like Florence, Rome and Naples are proudly Italian. This is a little historical nonsense, since from the Longbards to Napolen Italy was considered to be just the North, and indeed Italy was united by the North.
But Italy was then "conquered" by the South: bureaucracy, armed forces, police forces, TV programming, football stars, the same national parliament with Southern men which become candidates in the North, all see a predominance or a real supremacy of the South; since 150 years, there are special funds and projects for the South, wasting enormous resources for a corrupted and unefficient system; while, economy and finance are always lead by the North, most part of taxes is raised in the North, the North grants much better standards of civilian life etc.
 
But let's go back to your question: you have seen the "real" problems, economy, state direction etc.
What it is very difficult to make know, and even to make believe, is the great difference between North and South Italy: I know you and many other ones wll never believe me, but (despite "Italianisation" of some great city) North is different from the South as Spain is different from Austria, or Greece from Holland etc. This is not my opinion: this a real fact.
In the North, we are often tired of the Italian characters shown in foreign states, always derived from South stereotypes (which are often repeated even here, as said before e.g. for TV programming, and make us even more unhappy about): dark-skinned and dark-haired, used to low-level works or to mob, speaking with Neapolitan/Sicilian/Roman accent, always cooking and eating, always living in a Mediterranean-climate country, with a Mediterranean culture etc. Many foreigners, just stop to tourist tours, unfortunately even writers, and will never understand why Venice should be different from Naples.
More, there are small "national feelings", which were hiden and contrasted by state laws and culture, aiming to create an artificial only national community, but that were never forgotten and are now coming out: this is e.g. the case of Venetia, where peculiar local characters were preserved and "Italianisation" was superficial, even absent in the countryside (where e.g. common laguange is not Italian, which is learned only at school); and then Venetia feel very different from South Italy but also different from North-West Italy or Emilia.
Otherwise, the North has a kind of self-consciousness, in contrast with the South for (as already written) economy, state direction, society and culture etc. and there are mixed feelings about (from a federal state to divide Italy, but more in the sense of "expelling" the South rather than creating a new state with its own tradition).
Similar feelings exist for people of the South toward the North, but usually by a pro-Italian point of view.
 
So, I repeat: there is a main division, North/South, due to culture and geography as to economy; there is Central Italy too, which has a very difficult position, culturally and geographically linked to South, economically to North; and, going deeper, you will regions which preserved an old national feeling, or at least a strong own culture and tradition, enough to make them further different from neighbouring regions, some of them recognised
 
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longrifle       7/9/2008 4:34:38 PM
If northern Italy successfully declared independence from the rest of Italy, wouldn't Tyrol, in turn, try to declare independence from the north?
 
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longrifle       7/9/2008 4:44:57 PM
How do most people in northern Italy feel about American military bases these days?
 
Just curious, since I spent two years in Vicenza at Caserma Ederle where I'm sure I made a general nuisance of myself.  You know, "Ciao Bella, sono un paracudisti Americano," and things like that.    
 
 
 
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FT_Italy       7/9/2008 5:04:07 PM

How do most people in northern Italy feel about American military bases these days?

 

Just curious, since I spent two years in Vicenza at Caserma Ederle where I'm sure I made a general nuisance of myself.  You know, "Ciao Bella, sono un paracudisti Americano," and things like that.    

 

 


Lol this is the kind of things local girls usually hate...but maybe you found someone who follow you ;-)
To be serious, approaching girls in such way is typical of South Italy: since many Italian soldiers are from the South, you would have been in good company to do it, but really Venetian girls are the coldest I know (not always a good thing...) and indeed I know of many South Italian soldiers making very bad figures with them.
Anyway, it is "paracadutista" :-) and, I hope you were able to enjoy our girls, but I hope more you were able to know my land and enjoy enviromental and artistical beauties (otherwise...come back!).
 
Your question: there are mixed feelings.
173rd Brigade base is to be doubled in Vicenza, occupying the old Dal Molin airport. This is supported by about 50% of Vicenza inhabitants, the ones who are friends to American soldiers or simply have links (above all economical links) with the base. On the other side, 50% of the town strongly disagree, they are worried to see American planes flying all the day over their heads (I know it is an airborne and not an air force base but...they are worried anyway) or simply they are anti-American (like the supporting left-wing activists); and, of course, it is this side to receive wider support, due to strong left-wing activists (even if, in recent elections, left-wing parties are full out of the Italian parliament, being only the moderates of Democratic Party - a mix of social-democrats, liberals and catholics - in).
In Aviano, instead, I do not know of serious matters: a problem was the American will to use only American civilian personnel in the base, but it was resolved and now they should engage local people as well.
 
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FT_Italy       7/9/2008 5:26:05 PM

If northern Italy successfully declared independence from the rest of Italy, wouldn't Tyrol, in turn, try to declare independence from the north?

This is a good question, but the problem is much more complicated.
First, the matter of Tyrol itself: it is divided between Italy (South) and Austria (North and East), so I do not think that South Tyrol would declare indipendence, but ask for Austrian protection then annexation.
 
Second, the population.
The province of Bolzano/Bozen is still mainly German, about 2/3. But, Bolzano/Bozen is today an Italian town, for 2/3, due to massive immigration under Fascist regime. And also the important town of Merano/Meran is about a half Italian inhabited, and a few other villages. There is also a small Ladin minority, but too little to be influential outside their villages.
But, among German-speaking population, many ones (about a half) are considered "German-Italians": they feel good with Italy, above all because Italy "payed" since 40 years to make Tyrol a quiet province, literally Italy defeated Tyrolese secessionism with money rather than weapons; so, they now have so many public funds, they ever do not know how to use them; while, if they would go back to Austria, they would be not a special province with lots of public money, but a common one.
So feelings are very uncertain.
 
Third, what extremists could do.
Tyrol terrorist movement is an old thing, but their few daughters and sons continue to celebrate those times, so no one can assure they will not place bombs back, and this time to kill (usually, in the past, they just targeted electric power lines of Italian heroes monuments).
More, there is a free "historical" association: the Schuetzen. They recall the ancient Absurgic militia, they should be only an historical association, for parades etc. but they are military organised and everybody knows their anti-Italian feelings.
And, many ones among Italians are still supporters of Fascist rule: it is not good to say, but when you feel as a minority inside a minority, you look for the ones who at least protected you once. Indeed, German-speaking minority has its own local rule, granted by Rome and guaranteed by Vienna: in this rule, Italians of South Tyrol are just a minority, with no own rule. So, I think some of them would fight.
 
Thus, as you can see, South Tyrol would a good place for "Balkanisation".
Someone would say than, in a modern, educated, wealth, civilised country, such things will never happen: we know that both two world wars originated in the wealthiest and best civilised countries of Europe, so do not be so sure.
 
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FT_Italy       7/10/2008 5:56:06 AM

I would say that the European Union gives them enough freedom to rule themselves in most fields anyway ...   through referendums and stuff,  a lot of minorities are on the move right now, and they have plenty of power in regional parliaments.  


Not at all: as far as I know, no minority is allowed to break free without an agreement with the state, so Flanders could not secessionate from Belgium, Scotland from UK, Catalunya from Spain etc. without a Czechoslovakia-like situation.
Autonomy can be enough for many ones, but not for all and not in all situations: and, not all the minorities have the self-rule they would like.
 
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FT_Italy       7/10/2008 10:30:38 AM

"Autonomy can be enough for many ones, but not for all and not in all situations: and, not all the minorities have the self-rule they would like."

 

Agreed.

 

But I still think that the "freedoms" the European Union grants to minorities do a lot to limit the chance of armed conflicts inside the EU-27 a.t.m.  Homegrown "national" terrorism for example is nearly dead in Europe, and groups like ETA and IRA have been pretty much contained. The German RAF  is also dissolved, terrorists have all sworn off violence.  Italian Red Brigades have some violent People sitting in jail, but I dont see a great chance to return to what we saw in the 70´s and 80´s ...


I agree, but you are talking about a kind of terrorism derived by old and defeated ideologies: indeed, the only terrorist movements still alive and dangerous are the IRA (just at truce with UK, defeated but not wiped out), the ETA and the Corse one; or, better, the ones which, even having strong ideological links to Communist world, have a strong ethnical basis too.
In Italy we still have both the Red Brigades and the Anarchist Insurrectionalist Movement, but both two have very low military capability and all or almost all leaders at jail.
 
Anyway, I believe too that there is no more space for terrorism in European indipendentism: here too, the indipendetist parties have chosen to fight by the democratic way.
The problem would be: what if a region declares indipendence, even by democratic way, but Italy or other does not agree?
 
And what if, the wealthiest regions secessionate, but Italy try to keep them out of EU/NATO/G8 etc. even without violence?
 
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eldnah       7/10/2008 10:52:14 AM
Although a great grandfather on the Italian side of my family came to the US in the late nineteenth century we have still kept in contact through the generations with what are now fourth and fifth cousins living in Italy. I travel to Italy for pleasure most years and at times stay with or visit them and when they are in the US for business or pleasure we usually get together. They are basically transplants to the Milan and lakes area from Civitavecchia after WWI & II. Their political opinions depend pretty much on their income. Those who are seriously well off lament what they see as the corruption and idleness of the mezzogiorno but believe it is an integral part of Italy. A few who have not been as successful somehow blame their problems on "Others" and are more inclined to believe separation would be better. A small sample I know and somewhat skewed toward the upper middle, lower upper incomes but they and their friends and associates say they believe Italy will remain intact. All are uncomfortable with the African immigration they see as a major problem. It's interesting that of all the married cousins my daughter's age, fortyish, none have more than one child.   
 
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FT_Italy       7/11/2008 4:57:54 AM

Although a great grandfather on the Italian side of my family came to the US in the late nineteenth century we have still kept in contact through the generations with what are now fourth and fifth cousins living in Italy. I travel to Italy for pleasure most years and at times stay with or visit them and when they are in the US for business or pleasure we usually get together. They are basically transplants to the Milan and lakes area from Civitavecchia after WWI & II. Their political opinions depend pretty much on their income. Those who are seriously well off lament what they see as the corruption and idleness of the mezzogiorno but believe it is an integral part of Italy. A few who have not been as successful somehow blame their problems on "Others" and are more inclined to believe separation would be better. A small sample I know and somewhat skewed toward the upper middle, lower upper incomes but they and their friends and associates say they believe Italy will remain intact. All are uncomfortable with the African immigration they see as a major problem. It's interesting that of all the married cousins my daughter's age, fortyish, none have more than one child.   

What you say is simply...what happens in every part of the World, at every time, since history began.
People are driven by own interest rather than a pure ideology.
 
Anyway, West Lombardia is not the more separatist area...I know, you would tell me that Northern League leaders were born and live there, but they have been conquered by Rome's governement seeds and incomes; and Milan is where Italy was born, and where there were and there is a massive immigration from the South.
Until some year ago, I would have agreed with your cousins - who anyway, as you seem to suggest, are of strong Central-South Italian roots but transplanted in the North, so they rightly feel more "Italians" than a person who is living where his family lived for many years, even before Italy were more than "a geographic expression" (Metternich). Splitting Italy would have been very difficult and even unpopular.
But now...federalism is coming very late, if it is coming, because Southern regions are trying to stop it in any way, or at least to make it useless, granting themselves strong outer incomes to support their public expense (corruption, waste, byzantine bureaucracy, an economy based on welfare system and statal works rather than on capitalism). And we are tired of wasting money there: but not just this thing; we really need our moneys, for investments and to reduce taxation, to keep our economy always at the best level and expand our markets as to keep safe good life standards.
And here, indipendentist parties are small, but they can account for a 10-12% direct vote at regional election, while all main parties (right-wing moderates of PdL, left-wing moderates of PD, and Northern League) together with smaller ones (catholic centrists, communists, socialists, neo-fascists, enivoromentalists) strongly support a strong local authonomy. While, believing to recent polls, between 50% (local newspapers) and 70% (local televisions) of Venetian people believe that South Italy is just a weight and there is no way that things can get better with them (TV polls clearly told of "indipendence" as the only way to resolve such problem).
 
 
A question: here, the division between North and South Italian people (not to talk about more local divisions) is felt very much: but what about your country? Did they form separate communities or tended to live in different areas?
Because I read that, in the USA, North Italians were much better considered than South Italians, who instead (with the typical racist thought of XIXth-early XXth century) were considered just a little better than Afro-Americans.
 
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