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Subject: More big news about the French
interestedamateur    6/17/2008 9:17:41 AM
Large defence cuts announced in France today. Has to be ratified by their government, but unless they want to spend big, it's going to happen. Details nicked from Fantassin on arsse (http://www .arrse.co.uk/cpgn2/Forums/viewtopic/t=99178.html): 1) 54.000 jobs (both civilians & military) will be cut in the coming six or seven years. The "Armée de terre" (army) will go down to 130,600 ( - 17%), the "Armée de l'air" (AF) will go down to 50,000 men (-25%) and the "Marine nationale" will go down to 44,000 men (-11%). 2) Decision on the second aircraft carrier is pushed back to 2011; same thing for the FREMM frigates. 3) Emphasis will be put on spatial defence with the creation of a dedicated command and new satellites will be launched 4) A new early warning system to detect balistic missiles will reach initial capability in 2015, being fully operational by 2020. (Hello Mr Bush...) 5) The "operational contract" of the army is now to be able to deploy 30.000 men 7/8000 km from their bases within a coalition during a year, in six months increment. More (in French) at: secretdefense.blogs.liberation.fr/ Fantassin doesn't mention that the MN will drop down to 18 DDG/FFGs. Rumours that the Rafale buy will ber cut to 200 planes. When you think of the reports recently about maintainance difficulties they really are in trouble. On the other hand, one could argue that they are merely being realistic. This also has big implications for us Brit's I think. The French spend roughly the same amount as we do - if they are having to make big cuts we may also have to again in due course.
 
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Godofgamblers       6/23/2008 6:44:02 AM
Thanks for your comments, IA. I think the cuts are jeopardizing Europe's feasability as a nation-state and compromising its future; that seems like a very strong statement , but I stand by it. What integrity do you have as a member of the int'l organizations that France belongs to to fulfill commitments, what trust will your citizens in your farflung possessions have in you, what security will Europe have with a 30,000 man active defense force?!?!? And this downsizing is a general trend all thru Europe.
 
Since the fall of the SU, ironically, the threat level has increased, not decreased, because of the array of new forces on the geopolitical map and the new challenges in a multi polar world.
 
You're right about conscription, it was a burden that seemed to have few payoffs, but at least you had the security of knowing that men could be called up in times of extreme emergency.... now what will France do? Call the US?
 
 
 
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The Lizard King    Sign of the Times...   6/23/2008 7:20:29 AM
  Current European arrogance, nationalism, and pride are not in line with their current realities. 

Individual European nationals will continue the trend of giving up their freedoms and sovereignty to the European Union in attempts to be relevant in modern times.

Ask a Brit if adopting the Euro seems so unimaginable now.
 
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The Lizard King    Sign of the Times...   6/23/2008 7:20:31 AM
  Current European arrogance, nationalism, and pride are not in line with their current realities. 

Individual European nationals will continue the trend of giving up their freedoms and sovereignty to the European Union in attempts to be relevant in modern times.

Ask a Brit if adopting the Euro seems so unimaginable now.
 
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interestedamateur       6/23/2008 7:34:32 AM

Thanks for your comments, IA. I think the cuts are jeopardizing Europe's feasability as a nation-state and compromising its future; that seems like a very strong statement , but I stand by it. What integrity do you have as a member of the int'l organizations that France belongs to to fulfill commitments, what trust will your citizens in your farflung possessions have in you, what security will Europe have with a 30,000 man active defense force?!?!? And this downsizing is a general trend all thru Europe.

 

Since the fall of the SU, ironically, the threat level has increased, not decreased, because of the array of new forces on the geopolitical map and the new challenges in a multi polar world.

 

You're right about conscription, it was a burden that seemed to have few payoffs, but at least you had the security of knowing that men could be called up in times of extreme emergency.... now what will France do? Call the US?

 

 


You're completely correct that European nations are declining vis a vis other nations (or is it that the others are rising?) Again, I repeat that nations must be realistic about what they can achieve. Yes threat levels have increased, but they're not the same as the SU and require different solutions. We don't need to worry about 30,000 tanks charging across the IGB any more, so the forces designed to deal with that (including conscription) no longer apply. I also repeat that France's internal security units are not being touched and will probably be beefed up. As for international treaties, even the US has limits as to what it can achieve and do.
Lizard King - France are rejoining NATO, and all indications are that it wants to become closer to US interests. What is there about that you disagree with?
 
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interestedamateur       6/23/2008 7:45:16 AM

  Current European arrogance, nationalism, and pride are not in line with their current realities. 

Individual European nationals will continue the trend of giving up their freedoms and sovereignty to the European Union in attempts to be relevant in modern times.


Ask a Brit if adopting the Euro seems so unimaginable now.


I would argue that this White Paper is exactly the opposite to the arrogance, pride etc you talk about - France is diminishing its old imperial bases (thereby reducing its standing in the world) and focussing more on NATO and US interests - something I'm sure you would agree with and applaud.
The EU is actually in trouble at the moment, although I agree that most of our leaders are looking at closer integration. I would say though that it's very easy to make more of the EU than is really warranted. It does have ultimate powers of legal judgement, but other than that it's more of a talking shop, with the same financial budget as a large UK County.  From a European point of view it does make sense to have limited EU forces outside of the NATO structure. This is entirely in accord with the US having mutual defence treaties all around the world which has nothing to do with the UK for example. We cannot expect the US to always support us and should have other systems ready for when needed. The classic example is the intervention in Albania a few years ago - Italy led a European force.
There's no intention that the UK adopt the Euro at this time or at any point in the medium term. It is noticeable though that the pound has been weakening against it, so we shall have to wait and see if there will be changes in the long term. Anyway what is the pound or any currency for that matter? Does it really matter if we change it so long as we become wealthier?
 
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The Lizard King       6/23/2008 8:26:00 AM
"I would argue that this White Paper is exactly the opposite to the arrogance, pride etc you talk about - France is diminishing its old imperial bases"
 
The White Paper - yes, the uproar over it - no.
 
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"US interests - something I'm sure you would agree with and applaud"
 
No, not necessarily something I would applaud.
 
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"The EU is actually in trouble at the moment, although I agree that most of our leaders are looking at closer integration. I would say though that it's very easy to make more of the EU than is really warranted. It does have ultimate powers of legal judgment, but other than that it's more of a talking shop, with the same financial budget as a large UK County."
 
That, IMHO, is far from the truth.  You have to look at where the EU is headed.  -Was not that long ago Europeans nations were killing each other;  now they are adopting a common currency, common laws and open border.  There is no Maginot lines on the French / German border.
 
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"From a European point of view it does make sense to have limited EU forces outside of the NATO structure. This is entirely in accord with the US having mutual defense treaties all around the world which has nothing to do with the UK for example. We cannot expect the US to always support us and should have other systems ready for when needed. The classic example is the intervention in Albania a few years ago - Italy led a European force."
 
Agree.
 
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"There's no intention that the UK adopt the Euro at this time or at any point in the medium term. It is noticeable though that the pound has been weakening against it, so we shall have to wait and see if there will be changes in the long term. Anyway what is the pound or any currency for that matter? Does it really matter if we change it so long as we become wealthier?"
 
I think that is pride talking.  You need to give up your sovereignty to be relevant and in your own words "wealthier".  When Britain finally comes to the European Union, with her tail between her legs, to adopt the Euro, the Europeans will be negotiating from strength and have all the leverage.
 
 
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interestedamateur       6/23/2008 10:08:43 AM
My replies in red below

"I would argue that this White Paper is exactly the opposite to the arrogance, pride etc you talk about - France is diminishing its old imperial bases"

 

The White Paper - yes, the uproar over it - no.

 
I assume you're talking about the Gaullist tendencies of the people complaining? Well, maybe you have a point, but on the other hand they'll learn! We Brit's are having the same problem adjusting to the end of empire, and I daresay US people will similarly find it hard to adapt when you're no longer number one.
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"US interests - something I'm sure you would agree with and applaud"

 

No, not necessarily something I would applaud.

 Why not?

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"The EU is actually in trouble at the moment, although I agree that most of our leaders are looking at closer integration. I would say though that it's very easy to make more of the EU than is really warranted. It does have ultimate powers of legal judgment, but other than that it's more of a talking shop, with the same financial budget as a large UK County."

 

That, IMHO, is far from the truth.  You have to look at where the EU is headed.  -Was not that long ago Europeans nations were killing each other;  now they are adopting a common currency, common laws and open border.  There is no Maginot lines on the French / German border.

 Well, that's all to the good surely? War in Europe would be absolutely devastating and if we have to give up some freedoms as well as meaningless symbols such as a currency to avoid it then that is to the good. Nationalism is adaptable - where I'm writing this from was once the lands of the Hicce, and then became in turn Mercia, part of the Viking kingdom of York, Wessex and then the Norman kingdom of England! Plus no one is saying that the integration go so far that I become a Frenchman or anything else.

-----------------------------------------------

"From a European point of view it does make sense to have limited EU forces outside of the NATO structure. This is entirely in accord with the US having mutual defense treaties all around the world which has nothing to do with the UK for example. We cannot expect the US to always support us and should have other systems ready for when needed. The classic example is the intervention in Albania a few years ago - Italy led a European force."

 

Agree.

 

-----------------------------------------------

"There's no intention that the UK adopt the Euro at this time or at any point in the medium term. It is noticeable though that the pound has been weakening against it, so we shall have to wait and see if there will be changes in the long term. Anyway what is the pound or any currency for that matter? Does it really matter if we change it so long as we become wealthier?"

 

I think that is pride talking.  You need to give up your sovereignty to be relevant and in your own words "wealthier".  When Britain finally comes to the European Union, with her tail between her legs, to adopt the Euro, the Europeans will be negotiating from strength and have all the leverage.


 Well maybe. All I can do is to repeat that there is no sign of it happening any time soon. The Euro isn't even being debated in the UK at the moment - it's completely off the agenda. You're correct about giving up sovereignty to remain relevent, but then this is real life. At the moment the US is number one and I don't expect that to change any time soon. But one day that will change and your great-grandchildren will be in my place having similar conversations with Chinese people over the mind net!


 
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The Lizard King       6/24/2008 9:29:20 AM
"We Brit's are having the same problem adjusting to the end of empire"
 
You already have had 60 years to adjust....
 
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Herald12345       6/24/2008 10:57:10 AM

"We Brit's are having the same problem adjusting to the end of empire"

 

You already have had 60 years to adjust....

Cut them some slack. The US still has Vietnam and France has Algeria AND Vietnam. Some of us [Americans in Iraq] are SLOW learners.
 
Herald

 
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JFKY       6/24/2008 10:59:27 AM
Herald are you saying Iraq is a good or bad thing?
 
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