Rising Sun over Hawaii....

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Subject: Rising Sun over Hawaii....
Godofgamblers 3/3/2008 2:03:12 AM

IN this scenario, the IJN invades Hawaii instead of a hit and run attack on Pearl. One of the invasion groups that struck Wake, or Indonesia, instead re routed to Hawaii and siezed enough real estate to make it unusable as a resupply/logistical center. The US lines of communication with Australia-NewZeland-Philipines would have been broken irrevocably for at least a year and a half. All points west severed it also catches the US oil stock and fleet repair assets in the port. Nobody can argue I think that the US forces could have repelled the invasion by say 15,000 Japanese Marines fresh from duty in China. The entire Japanese gambit in WWII was to make the US sue for peace rather than fight it out in a protracted conflict. We know what happened when the Japanese missed our carriers and ran off. In my new scenario the battle of Guadalcanal never happens because the IJN have successfully severed the artery in the middle of the pacific.

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Ehran 3/13/2008 12:43:21 PM

Larger rendition.

The idea of a blockship is patently ridiculous. The whole purpose of the USS Ward, besides as a sub guard was as a picket ship to intercept such a STUPID scheme before a block ship could enter the channel.

List2ers.

Sheesh.

Herald

ht*p://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/pearl_harbor.htm

With an approximate width of 350 yd, the channel has an initial project depth of 49.9 ft (15.2 m) near the center and 45 ft (13.7 m) on either side of the central 100 yd wide main channel. The central channel project depth decreases to 45 ft (13.7 m) approximately one nmi north of the channel entrance. The project depths on either side of the central channel decrease to 40 ft (12.2 m) at the same location. The same depths are maintained in the Main Channel to a point adjacent to Dry Docks 1 and 2. Channel depths within Pearl Harbor vary by location, and should be verified with the Pearl Harbor Port Operations Office.

h*tp://www.history.navy.mil/photos/usnshtp/ap/w1ap-t14.htm

a listing of a few of the merchant ships of the right size to do this with.

given a dredged channel width of 100 yards and a blockship length of 500 plus feet i do believe a blockship would have been a significant pain in in the butt for the usn. heck the entire channel is only 350 yards across so plugging a 500 or 600 foot ship in the middle of it would you'd think be problematic to go around.

the most compicated part of the whole process is going to be working up some kind of an excuse for being there. underbidding a contract to haul supplies to pearl would probably work just fine for that. even without an excuse do you really think given the dismal readiness levels at pearl someone is going to authorize firing into an american flagged ship fast enough to stop them from getting into the channel. the exclusion zone round pearl isn't very big (3miles or so) after all and at 12 or 15 knots someone is going to have to be willing to end his career on a moment's notice pretty much to fire into that blockship.

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Herald12345 Quit flailing around List2er. 3/13/2008 1:59:40 PM

USS Ward combat report.

Japanese mini-sub found.

Notice the depth at where the sub was found?

Navigation log, USS Ward.

OUTSIDE the main entry channel.

Location, location, location.

Comment on that on which you know......................which incidentally is very little.

Herald

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Herald12345 Balao 1947-move it up a decade. 3/13/2008 11:05:09 PM

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3067/2332492722_125d86dbb9_b.jpg">
Herald

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Godofgamblers additional info 3/14/2008 12:31:55 AM

http://www.diggerhistory.info/images/asstd2/bshiprow.gif" width=513 border=0>

Chronology of events

"Sunday, December 7 - Islands of Hawaii, near Oahu - The Japanese attack force under the command of Admiral Nagumo, consisting of six carriers with 423 planes, is about to attack. At 6 a.m., the first attack wave of 183 Japanese planes takes off from the carriers located 230 miles north of Oahu and heads for the U.S. Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor.

Pearl Harbor - At 7:02 a.m., two Army operators at Oahu's northern shore radar station detect the Japanese air attack approaching and contact a junior officer who disregards their reports, thinking they are American B-17 planes which are expected in from the U.S. west coast.

Near Oahu - At 7:15 a.m., a second attack wave of 167 planes takes off from the Japanese carriers and heads for Pearl Harbor.

Pearl Harbor is not on a state on high alert. Senior commanders have concluded, based on available intelligence, there is no reason to believe an attack is imminent. Aircraft are therefore left parked wingtip to wingtip on airfields, anti-aircraft guns are unmanned with many ammunition boxes kept locked in accordance with peacetime regulations. There are also no torpedo nets protecting the fleet anchorage. And since it is Sunday morning, many officers and crewmen are leisurely ashore.

At 7:53 a.m., the first Japanese assault wave, with 51 'Val' dive bombers, 40 'Kate' torpedo bombers, 50 high level bombers and 43 'Zero' fighters, commences the attack with flight commander, Mitsuo Fuchida, sounding the battle cry: "Tora! Tora! Tora!" (Tiger! Tiger! Tiger!).

The Americans are taken completely by surprise. The first attack wave targets airfields and battleships. The second wave targets other ships and shipyard facilities. The air raid lasts until 9:45 a.m. Eight battleships are damaged, with five sunk. Three light cruisers, three destroyers and three smaller vessels are lost along with 188 aircraft. The Japanese lose 27 planes and five midget submarines which attempted to penetrate the inner harbor and launch torpedoes.

[I was wrong: US anti-sub measures not a fluke, but quite excellent; 5 Jap mini subs sunk!- GoG]

Escaping damage from the attack are the prime targets, the three U.S. Pacific Fleet aircraft carriers, Lexington, Enterprise and Saratoga, which were not in the port. Also escaping damage are the base fuel tanks.

The casualty list includes 2,335 servicemen and 68 civilians killed, with 1,178 wounded. Included are 1,104 men aboard the Battleship USS Arizona killed after a 1,760-pound air bomb penetrated into the forward magazine causing catastrophic explosions.

In Washington, various delays prevent the Japanese diplomats from presenting their war message to Secretary of State, Cordell Hull, until 2:30 p.m. (Washington time) just as the first reports of the air raid at Pearl Harbor are being read by Hull.

News of the "sneak attack" is broadcast to the American public via radio bulletins, with many popular Sunday afternoon entertainment programs being interrupted. The news sends a shockwave across the nation and results in a tremendous influx of young volunteers into the U.S. armed forces. The attack also unites the nation behind the President and effectively ends isolationist sentiment in the country.

Monday, December 8 - The United States and Britain declare war on Japan with President Roosevelt calling December 7, "a date which will live in infamy..."

Thursday, December 11 - Germany and Italy declare war on the United States. The European and

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Herald12345 GiG source data. 3/14/2008 5:07:52 AM

Source citation.

Give me 30 seconds and you'd be surprised what I can do; GoG.

Herald

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Godofgamblers 3/14/2008 6:02:16 AM

Source citation.

Give me 30 seconds and you'd be surprised what I can do; GoG.

Herald

Good work, you see, I didn't make it up he2.

I wonder though, Herald, do you believe the debate over Pearl is still an open issue (i.e. the advance knowledge debate), or has it been settled? I see that there are still classified documents in this regard, but I wonder if they will radically change our perception of the events of that day. In my mind, the debate is dead in the water.... makes for interesting discussion though.

Some remaining classified materials relating to Pearl Harbor

Part of the controversy of the debate centers on the state of documents pertaining to the attack. There are some related to Pearl Harbor which have not been made public. Others may no longer exist, as many documents were destroyed early during the war due to fears of an impending Japanese invasion of the Hawaiian Islands, still others are partial and crudely mutilated.^[22]

A. All trans-oceanic telephone conversations (transcripts and recordings) between President Roosevelt and Churchill during November (of interest is especially November 26th) and December 1941 (the first week in particular). Much of this is based on fictional documents with an often claimed location of "Roll T-175" at the National Archives. There is no Roll T-175; NARA does not use that terminology. Also see [3]

B. Full and "true copy" RDF (Radio Direction Finder) records from all of the US Navy's Pacific facilties as well as those of Allies, for November 1941 and December 1941.

C. Complete and "true copy" of all raw intercepts of IJN Operations traffic for 1941, including all communications information (eg, Frequencies Used, Call Signs, TOI, Originator, Action/Information, ..., etc.). SRN-115376 and SRN-116643 are of particular interest for some.

h*tp://www.answers.com/Pearl%20Harbor%20advance-knowledge%20debate

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Herald12345 Like many other broad catastrophies........ 3/14/2008 6:26:59 AM

................the outlines of the mistakes and the Human motives that led to those mistakes become painfully clear when you look at the actual events. Conspiracy nuts just can't get it through their heads that the surprised victim of the disaster is fully aware of the possibility, even plans for the possibility and yet for what seems to be perfectly good reasons to him at the time ignores advice or refuses to implement his own planning to prevent the disaster.

Case in point.

The IJN wargamed Operation MI [the attack on Midway] Admiral Yamaguchi who headed the US "team" clobbered Nagumo's air staff and scattered thejm in defeat with just one "US carrier" and a ragtag fleet of escorts plus simulated Midway landbased air.

Yamaguchi [Hiryu] in the wargame accomplished nowhere near the damage that Spruance did in reality, but then the Japanese didn't properly weight the data as to how ineffective the USNAF at that stage of the war was either.

Did the Japanese change their plans and adjust for the expected American ambush fleet?

No.

I could cite the Battle of Leyte Gulf as the American example.

Face it, you have to admit that historically military idiots are an exploit. That is why prudent militaries maintain a psychological intelligence section that dossiers opposing enemy commanders, to see what what little psychological quirks the service can exploit against that enemy commander .

One of the reasons the Japanese didn't change their Midway plan was because they expected to fight Halsey. They KNEW he was an idiot. They didn't expect to bump into anyone like Yamaguchi-a palpable naval genius. So Spruance came as a total shock and surprise to them-especially Yamamoto, sort of like Pearl Harbor was to Kimmel.

Herald

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Godofgamblers Herald 3/14/2008 7:41:52 AM

Interesting analysis. And I had no idea Midway was wargamed by the Japanese... incredible bit of trivia.

In the defence of conspiracy theorists, one reason why conspiracies are spawned is that the gov't lies or drags its feet on something. The public is then forced to come up with its own answers, right or not. I don't know much about the JFK assassination (a fave of the conspiracy nuts), but weren't there multiple commissions and inquests on the subject?

The same with Pearl: if memory serves, there were no less than 8 or 9 various commissions and enquiry boards to determine what really happened.... In the face of such a dizzying succession of investigations, obviously John Doe on the street starts to suspect something is up, whether there is or not...

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Wicked Chinchilla 3/14/2008 10:03:38 AM

I think the Pearl Harbor conspiracy theories, among others, are born of the refusal to believe that those in authority are that stupid. I mean, in all honesty, how easy is it to believe that contrary to the adversaries, radar warnings, intelligence warnings, and a decent sense of prudence Kimmel and Short blundered so heinously into such a disastrous surprise attack? It is rather difficult to believe but nevertheless that is what happened. The public wants to feel like they are being protected and looked after by calm, competent, and skilled individuals, not buffoons.

Thats what the Pearl Harbor conspiracies are about. The thought of recognizing that someone that incompetent could be in charge is unnacceptable to many.

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Ehran 3/14/2008 2:55:43 PM

and not a single word relevant to the subject at hand which is a blockship in the channel leading into pearl.

dragging in a bunch of twaddle about minisubs is utterly pointless. perhaps you might try to focus on the subject for once herald.

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