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Subject: Future of Strategic Nuclear Deterrents
Roman    7/5/2004 7:31:41 PM
What systems do you think will be used for strategic nuclear deterrence in the future? Will countries retain ICBMs, or does the future lie in cruise missiles? Do nuclear bombers have any future at all? How about SSBNs or SSGNs?
 
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Roman    RE:Future of Strategic Nuclear Deterrents - France    9/4/2004 8:28:28 PM
Interesting, so France is the only Western nation modernizing its nuclear deterrent... that means it makes for a good case study on the future of nuclear deterrence. So what from and what to / how is France modernizing its nuclear deterrent?
 
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   RE:Future of Strategic Nuclear Deterrents - France    9/12/2004 11:45:33 PM
France is actively developing extended range SLBMs, with a goal of 7,000 km (comparable to the American Trident II). I'm not sure how the budgets holding up, and testing is illegal, which puts a damper in the plan. But it's on the books..
 
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   RE:Future of Strategic Nuclear Deterrents - France    9/13/2004 2:24:30 AM
Oooh, and it gets better. I did some google research to come up with more info on what the French were doing to upgrade their nuclear capabilities. The French want to purchase an additional trio of Triumphant-class SSBNs. The first (and only) of these was deployed in 1996, making it the newest Western SSBN. Insofar as I am aware, no other nuclear-capable Western nation (principally the US and the UK) are devloping either new missiles or new submarines for launching those missiles. The M45 is the new missile I was referencing, which is inteded to go on the Triumphant. It has a range of 6,000 km (not quite the 7k I thought they were shooting for) and a yield of 600kt (6x100kt). And even IT is slated for replacement in 2015 by the M-51, a new missile with a range of 11,000 (!) km. There's also talk of a new warhead for the missile (TN-76), but apparently budgets arent there for it, so theyr still sticking with the Tn-75 100kt bomb. All this was found here: http://www.cdi.org/issues/nukef&f/database/frnukes.html So, yeah, these guys are VERY busy bees..
 
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Roman    RE:Future of Strategic Nuclear Deterrents - France    9/14/2004 6:21:55 AM
Wow, it appears France is indeed busy modernizing its nuclear deterrent. I am not sure, however, that it is the only Western power to do so. I recall reading that Britain is contemplating replacing its boomers with new ones in the future. Ok, that is only planning - not actual modernization. The U.S., though, is supposedly in the early stages of replacement of its deterrent. New systems are expected to achieve IOC in 2018 (for the new ICBM) and in 2020s for other systems. Unfortunately, I have not been able to find any information whatsoever about the capabilities/features of these planned systems and I have no clue as to just how much of an 'early stage' is the U.S. at - whether it is the design stage or selecting the requirements stage or something else entirely.
 
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   RE:Future of Strategic Nuclear Deterrents - France    9/14/2004 7:45:11 AM
You sure about whole new systems, or just component upgrades? Im pretty confident Peacekeeper is the end of the line for US ballistic missiles. The President is trying to get clearence for the development of tactical warheads, but those arent ballistic. I think the general consensus at this point is arms reduction. I'm not counting, of course, maintenace programs for existing missiles, which are ongoing. But in the interests of full disclosure I'll concede that routine maintenace packages for the missiles tend to include hardware upgrades. We arent still using punchcards for targeting, of course. As an example, I recall a recent package included an increase in the overall accuracy of the Minuteman II..
 
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Roman    RE:Future of Strategic Nuclear Deterrents - France    9/14/2004 8:04:50 AM
Yes, I am sure it is new systems, but as I said I am uncertain as to what stage of planning they are in now - I think it is only in the very beginning stages. Here is an excerpt from the NPR, but remember that it might not be completely up to date: ""Follow on ICBM: The Air Force Systems Command (AFSPC) led the Ballistic Missile Requirements (BMR) Study (1998 to 2000) which documented a number of needs beyond the current baseline ICBM mission, such as extended range, trajectory shaping, strategic relocatable targets, and hardened deeply buried targets, that the next generation ICBM could address. The Land Based Strategic Nuclear Deterrence Mission Needs Statement (MNS) drew from the analysis done in the BMR study in documenting the need for ICBMs beyond 2020. To expand on the MNS and address alternatives for the follow on ICBM, AFSPC plans to conduct an analysis of alternatives in FY04 and FY05 with an IOC by 2018. This work will ensure the requirements generation process and the acquisition process remain on track for the future ICBM force." (p. 41) "Trident SSBN: . ..The Administration intends to convert four SSBNs from the current force of 18 submarines to carry special operations forces as well as conventional cruise missiles. Achieving this force structure also requires converting four of the eight Trident I (C-4) SSBNs to carry the Trident D-5 missile. The Navy has extended the Trident hull life to 44 years. This in turn will require the DoD to extend the service life of the D-5 SWS [Strategic Weapons System] as well. The first of the 14 Trident SSBNs remaining in service will he retired in 2029." (p. 42) "Trident II SLBM: ... DoD will fund the D-5 Life Extension Program, which continues production of D-5 missiles, and upgrades the guidance and missile electronics systems on existing missiles. The continued production of additional D-5 missiles is needed in order to prevent a shortage of missiles in the next decade." (p. 42) "Follow-on SSBN: ... DoD assumes the continued requirement for a sea-based strategic nuclear force. Therefore, the timeframe when the next generation SSBN will need to be deployed is about 2029 when the first of the remaining operational Trident SSBNs is planned to be retired. The Navy is currently studying two options for future follow-on SSBNs: (1) a variant of Virginia-class nuclear attack submarines (SSN); and (2) a dedicated SSBN (either a new design or a derivative of the Trident SSBN) ... If the decision is made to develop a new dedicated SSBN, a program would have to be initiated around 2016 to ensure that a new platform is available in 2029." (p. 42) "Follow-on SLBM. A new SLBM would be needed in about 2029 to match the schedule for a follow-on SSBN. The Navy has begun studies to examine range-payload requirements and missile size, but no specific plans for a follow-on SLBM at this point other than extending the service life of the Trident D-5." (p. 42) "Common Missile. The Department of Defense doe not plan to pursue a common ICBM/SLBM ballistic missile at this time. However, the Air Force and Navy are currently cooperating in research and development on common technologies related to current and future ballistic missiles - the Guidance Applications Prograrn (GAP), Reentry Systems Applications Program (RSAP), Propulsion Applications Program (PAP), and Technology for the Sustainment of Strategic Systems (TSSS) programs." (p. 42-43) "
 
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   RE:Future of Strategic Nuclear Deterrents - USA   9/15/2004 3:54:37 AM
Your right! It's all very preliminary, though. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for a next generation ICBM; the political support isnt there. The AF will be told to stick with modular upgrades to existing Minuteman/Peacekeeper systems. A replacement for our SSBN's is more likely, given that you'll have to reitre the existing fleet eventually. Honestly, Im not impresed. As of now, our existing ICBM's have the capacity to rain destruction on any major urban center on the globe with an hours notice, which is more than enough. The US does not need new missiles. Thanks for the info..
 
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Roman    RE:Future of Strategic Nuclear Deterrents - USA   9/15/2004 6:16:48 AM
Even missiles need to be replaced eventually... hence I am pretty sure that it will be done. Remember that the new ICBM is meant to have IOC only in 2018... by then current ICBMs will be very old.
 
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