|I think I should publicly "lighten up" on ElCid by acknowledging that he does a remarkable job of putting together a picture of the Chinese military considering he's limited basically to open source, unclassified data. I am not a China expert, I merely play one on StrategyPage, but I come from the advantage of having access to many classified assessments of China. Of course, as I've said, DoD intel is limited in not having the resources to mine open source as much as we wish we could. We each make whatever assessments we can based on what we think the data available to us is showing.
Regarding the PLA ballistic missile threat, we aren't exactly on the same page, but we're in the same book. I just figure ElCid has skipped ahead a chapter or two, while he figures I need a speed-reading course. It looks to me like we're on the same missile capabilities "time-line," only we're several years apart.