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Subject: Chinese strategic nuclear arsenals - ICBM
cateyes    6/23/2004 1:55:49 PM
It's very hard to get accurate data regarding to Chinese strategic nuclear force. You have to take a guess work to estimate what kind of systems they have, let alone numbers. Since Chinese has a very different views from west on deterrence issue, they simply hide all the detail. So we can only take a guess, based on the public resources: DF-5: This liquid fuel type ICBM is the only official confirmed one, first generation Chinese ICBM with single warhead, mega ton level yield, entering into service in middle 80s. Some of them sit in silos(I saw one photo before), some stored in tunnels. China has unique geographic condition, with 70% of land covered by huge rock mountains, so it's natural for them to take that advantage. The 80s offical source confirmed the initial tunnel network was completed in early 80s. Some semi-official source stated that China obtained the fire on warning capability in 1984, with 5 command centers. As for number, I think 20 around ICBMs at the end of 80s is credible, which is disclosed by one high ranking offical in 1990, who escaped to US. Since China's main enemy is Soviet Union before 90s, most of their nuclear arsenals are in middle range. DF-5A: The information of this type ICBM is circulated for quite a time, but never being confirmed by offical source, and no photos/evidences exist. DF-5A is said upgraded from DF-5 in range, and multiple warhead capability. DF-31: This solid fuel mobile type ICBM came into public in 1999, and there are quite a lot photos/evidences about it circulated around. Interesting thing is that China never confirms in public it is an ICBM, only indirect evidence proves it. Sources said this type of ICBM started its deployment from 1996, and completed in 2001. DF-31 in early development stage, the Chinese text indicats ICBM: http://member.netease.com/~rxj/pic/df31f.jpg This scanned photo shows DF-31 in launch practice: http://military.myrice.com/weapoon/missile/df31-03.jpg DF-31 spotted in the field: http://military.myrice.com/weapoon/missile/df31-04.jpg Does this photo captured from Chinese TV show its deployment? http://www.ndu.edu/nwc/nwcCLIPART/FOREIGN_MIL_EQUIPMENT/Ballistic_Missiles/Other/ChineseDF3.jpg Also there are some DF-31 picutres captured in differenc places: DF-31 in parade, with labels on the vehicles: http://www.warchina.com/image/yb-df41a.jpg http://member.netease.com/~rxj/pic/df31.jpg http://www.sinodefence.com/nuclear/icbm/df31_1.jpg DF-31 spotted in the field, no labels on the vechicle: http://www.sinodefence.com/nuclear/icbm/df31_3.jpg http://pcwar.myrice.com/weapon/china/images/df31.jpg http://www.sinodefence.com/nuclear/icbm/df31_2.jpg claimed to be payload of the DF-31, not sure: http://member.netease.com/~rxj/pic/df31dt.jpg http://military.myrice.com/weapoon/missile/df31-02.jpg With these photos/evidence we can safely conclude that DF-31 has been in service, it not the Chinese tradition to put weapons not in service into public parade anyway. DF-31A/DF-41: There are some information around regarding these two types Chinese ICBMs, but never confirmed by the official like with DF31. DF-31A extends DF-31's range from 8000km to 12,000km. And DF-41 is a heavy type ICBM with a striking range to 14,000. There are tow pictures released to public, don't know from where. DF-31A, or DF-41? Looks qute similar to ss27. http://member.netease.com/~rxj/pic/df31a.jpg http://www.wforum.com/specials/upload/DF-41.jpg
 
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hybrid    RE:Number of China's ICBMs - Capability   6/28/2004 2:29:27 PM
So we now have 2 contentions here. Elcid's claim via the captain and Displacedjim's claim via flight data as recorded by the ship. Personally I just want to see both so we can verify exactly what happened.
 
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displacedjim    RE:Number of China's ICBMs - Capability - hybrid   6/28/2004 2:53:38 PM
Sadly, that's not possible, unless you have access to classified message traffic. I can look it up again next month and post a message serial number or date time group or something to search on if you can. Otherwise, you're forced to reach your own conclusions regarding my veracity. :-) Displacedjim
 
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elcid    That only leaves inertial/navagational types of guidance available.   6/28/2004 5:09:51 PM
While every missile since the Germans invented them has used inertial guidance, in whole or in part, China now is using GPS, as we do for bombs and many missiles as well. Do not forget GPS, which is NOT inertial.
 
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elcid    terminal guidance all the way to the target is something the Chinese did not already have deployed i   6/28/2004 5:11:20 PM
Do you care to say when they did deploy it?
 
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elcid    I'm talking about actual flight path data on one of the missiles as reported from the ship:   6/28/2004 5:14:20 PM
I am a technicial guy. Where is this data? I know something about USNI and Proceedings Policy - they don't normally publish lies and they don't normally just believe what an author asserts. I frankly don't think you can be correct - but go ahead - tell me where the data is. I can read. And IF it does not justify what he said, I will ask him why he said it?
 
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elcid    You can't achieve that by a short range missle, let alone longer one.   6/28/2004 5:20:42 PM
As a child (well, in high school) I objected to the then official story of NASA and USAF that color photography was impossible in outer space. [I suppose they really knew better and just hoped no one would try. They said "radiation" makes the film unusable.] So we built a rocket and put up a camera and blew the theory out of the water. [And Congress promptly passed a law forbidding any rocket over 16 ounces, with over 6 ounces of fuel, or going over 1000 feet, as a "hazzard to air navigation." This was about 1962.] When I grew up I did missiles and high speed aircrft at a Boeing lab - more than one in fact. Let me say this: your assertion is categorically false. IF it were true we could not hit missiles in flight. But we can and the present technology we are deploying this year in Alaska is "hit to kill." We can certainly hit a warship sized target physically, and have done many times. Photographic evidence indicates that errors less than one meter are common.
 
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elcid    post a message serial number or date time group    6/28/2004 5:22:00 PM
post it
 
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displacedjim    RE:Number of China's ICBMs - Capability   6/28/2004 8:37:38 PM
"Do not forget GPS, which is NOT inertial" Yeah, I got that, that's why I said "inertial/navagational types of guidance." I went on in the next paragraph to address systems like JDAM, which uses an INS supplemented by GPS inputs to achieve a CEP on the order of a couple meters--because it does continuously correcting its trajectory all the way to the preprogrammed aimpoint. No, I do not care to say if or when China has developed/tested/deployed any terminally guided RVs. I often skate uncomfortably close to the edge of what I can say as it is. I don't plan on going in for a weekend until the end of July, so I've asked a co-worker to look up the message I'm referring to (hey, that's what lieutenants are for) and send me some identifying information. Hopefully he'll do that in the next couple days. Both catseyes and you are correct. It's a matter of the guidance and control used. The large majority of ballistic missile RVs are velocity controlled by the booster or a post boost vehicle up through some point in their trajectory. After that (usually when the RV separates, if it's designed to) the RV follows a purely ballistic path (except for some slight preturbations in some cases where the RV itself might do a pitch, yaw, or slight speed increase/decrease manuever, and/or be "spun up"). At that point it's as accurate as it is going to get, and where it ultimately hits is subject to change only due to atmospheric effects. However, air-toair or even ABM missiles are terminally guided and lock on and home in on their target using aerodynamics or some sort of reaction (motor burn, etc.) to change their velocity to rendezvous with their target. It sounds like getting an SRBM warhead to guide to an aimpoint is fundamentally the same problem as getting a JDAM to guide to an aimpoint, but it would appear achieving CEPs of a couple meters using a hypersonic RV rather than a supersonic bomb is no minor difference, and not easily accomplished. Of course, for that matter, the Chinese haven't accomplished it just with bombs, either. Displacedjim
 
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cateyes    Guidance and navigation control system   6/29/2004 11:10:45 AM
For stragetic long range nuclear missles, they basically use inertial guidance system, with astronomic correction. No GPS will be used since that system will be destroyed or malfunction in the first wave strike anyway.
 
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displacedjim    RE:post a message serial number or date time group    6/29/2004 12:31:34 PM
Well, I got a response with some info on the message in question. Unfortunately, it doesn't have a message serial, but the DTG is 081234Z MAR 96 and it's from USS BUNKER HILL. There is a record ID, but I think that's a serial number used only within the NASIC message data base so it likely won't help anyone else track it down: MSG1996249587. Also unfortunately, the goofus who wrote it didn't even give it an unclassified subject line, so that's about all I can give you to identify the message. I hope you can get someone else to look it up and confirm to you what I said it contains. The above information plus a few intelligent search terms should find it easily enough. I forgot to ask about the overall message classification, but I think it was just Secret collateral, not SCI. Displacedjim
 
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