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Subject: possible nuclear exchange between U.S and PRC
NomadSoul    6/20/2004 12:10:38 AM
tell me what you think about this one.
 
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Warhammer    RE:possible nuclear exchange between U.S and PRC   6/21/2004 12:32:39 AM
We won't nuke them unless they either nuke us, or in the very small chance that they actually land an invasion force large enough to scare us. Probably not going to happen. China isn't going to trade any, or all of its major cities and bases for Taiwan.
 
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gf0012-aust    RE:possible nuclear exchange between U.S and PRC   6/21/2004 12:38:54 AM
someone needs to add up all the nukes the US has, add up the type and variety of delivery platforms, and then do a comparative with China. when you look at the numbers, and the geographical strategic advantages of the US, then it's not a good idea. A nuclear exchange is not an attractive and winnable solution for China.
 
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slowball    RE:possible nuclear exchange between U.S and PRC   6/21/2004 1:58:04 AM
While I agree that China would come out worse than the USA, I'm not real keen about being on the winning side either. The question is, would the US risk nuclear devastation to defend Taiwan. If we are not prepared to do that, then China is not risking it by attacking Taiwan.
 
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NomadSoul    RE:possible nuclear exchange between U.S and PRC   6/21/2004 3:29:58 AM
CCP hard liner insist to take Taiwan regardless of death and destruction. one of the PLA general who visited U.S a few years ago said: You Americans cannot afford to loose L.A
 
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hybrid    RE:possible nuclear exchange between U.S and PRC   6/21/2004 5:28:25 AM
And was duly noted back to same said general that China cannot afford to lose the Three Gorges Dam, Beijing Shangai and many numerous other cities. Its not something the US takes lightly and in the case of any such attack on a US installation, ships (in the case of a CBG), or city the response is actually automatic. The pres and congress don't even get a say in it because response time is measured in minutes or seconds.
 
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NomadSoul    RE:possible nuclear exchange between U.S and PRC   6/21/2004 9:52:12 AM
if CCP does anything stupid ie nuke U.S assets, we hit them as hard as we can
 
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Warhammer    RE:possible nuclear exchange between U.S and PRC   6/21/2004 10:27:19 AM
Like I said, we don't use nukes unless they do, and they aren't going to use nukes to get us to back off, because they don't want to die. Any fight over Taiwan will stay conventional, unless Chinese leadership goes nuts. Their generals can hint all they want about the possible use of nukes in such a conflict, but they know as well as we do, that when they use nukes, they are screwed. China would have to get a seriously deranged leader to throw in the nuke card.
 
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slowball    RE:possible nuclear exchange between U.S and PRC   6/21/2004 4:44:12 PM
"Its not something the US takes lightly and in the case of any such attack on a US installation, ships (in the case of a CBG), or city the response is actually automatic. The pres and congress don't even get a say in it because response time is measured in minutes or seconds." You sound like that Chinese general. Last I checked the President is CIC and is the only one with authority to authorize the use of nukes. I would hate to see the results if a renagade US commander tried to pull that off. Nukes have always been put into different classifications. Nukes at sea have always been deemed the most palatable mainly because they don't leave noticable long term effects and there is no collateral damage. I agree that China wouldn't use nukes (although they have a very different view of the world) because the EMP would hurt them more. I think they will settle for intimidation and avoid a fight. It is a game of poker.
 
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hybrid    RE:possible nuclear exchange between U.S and PRC   6/21/2004 11:43:40 PM
The president has the final authorization... that said however it isn't the same thing as a PROCESS and DEBATE. Once a nuclear detonation is detected or missile launch detected NORAD plus a chief of staff or two are in direct contact with the President. He has for a ballistic missile launch less than 15 minutes to decide to retaliate or not. Legally however that decision to retaliate is already taken out of his hands, congress has long ago approve nuclear retaliation, the public itself would EXPECT retaliation and any president/adminstration or congress that didn't support that after a nuclear event would find itself shortly kicked out of the seats they hold. As I said its not something that is taken lightly. Its also pretty damn clear on just about EVERY level that if a nuclear missile is launched, a device detonated or ships attacked by nukes then the response is a GUARDAMNTEE nuke response. Read up on the MAD theory sometime, it isn't dead even in these days just harder to apply to rogue states and individuals.
 
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slowball    RE:possible nuclear exchange between U.S and PRC   6/22/2004 3:46:16 AM
"He has for a ballistic missile launch less than 15 minutes to decide to retaliate or not. Legally however that decision to retaliate is already taken out of his hands, congress has long ago approve nuclear retaliation" You're thinking of a ballistic missile attack against the US. We are talking about an attack against a CVBG in the Taiwan Straits. I am quite familiar with the theory of MAD. That's BS. Congress has no authority over such decisions. They are completely out of the loop.
 
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