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Subject: Author seeks background information on surprise nuclear attack by Russia
michaelmullen    8/26/2006 2:23:14 AM
Hopefully I have found a group of people such as yourselves who are knowledgeable in hypotheticl nuclear war. I am writing a book based upon the Bible's projection in Ezekiel 38 that Russia will attack Israel supported by all the Muslim nations, while Russia neutralizes America with a surprise first strike with everything they have. Please, I do NOT want to discuss the probabilities of this happening. The Bible says it will, and it will be the biggest tactical error in history of warfare. The USA retaliation will turn 5/6 of Russia to dust. Also, Ezekiel says that most of Russia's missiles (arrows) will fall harmlessly. Supernaturally, or simply because they don't work. Okay. THAT is the PREMISE of the book. Please go with me on this. ============================================================ NOW... Let us PRETEND that this scenario happens. Would any of you please tell me what Russia would throw at us? What nuclear arsenal would they shoot? Could you describe the weaponry? How would it be delivered? Which, if any, weaponry would make it thru our defense systems? What would the resulting damage be to America with the FEW that did get thru and hit us? Then after the Russian scenario, and describing their attack, what would the USA retaliation consist of? I know the results according to the Bible. Russia is wiped off the map, leaving only one-sixth. But HOW would this happen? Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, if you would participate and help me. I will be sure to give you a mention in the book for your help.
 
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displacedjim       8/26/2006 9:59:15 AM

Michael,

 

We currently have next to zero defense.  All but maybe at most a dozen warheads would get through, and I think even that is being overly optimistic.  I'm sure there are sites you can find that would list the numbers available.  Of course, actually a significant percentage would fail to launch/fly/deploy RVs/detonate/etc. over America through various systems failure; I don't know the right number, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was anywhere from 10 to 50% of their warheads would fail to function as desired.  If there's a long period of tension build-up, the Russians today could get several SSBN missile submarines ready for sea, maybe a couple Typhoons and several Deltas.  Sending these boats out to sea and closer to America is one way to catch us with the least amount of warning that the actual attack is under way, as a short range, depressed-angle submarine launch has the shortest flight-time.  However, sending their subs to sea would be observed by us and would be a very major warning to us, such that we would be on heightened alert ourselves and more ready to counter-attack.  Furthermore, if the circumstances actually permitted us to engage their subs (like if we're already in a shooting war with Russia to some extent), then we very likely would be able to sink at least some of them before they reach their launch points.  An attack more likely to actually catch us by surprise would be for the Russians to not wait for the subs to get into position but only use their ICBMs.

 
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michaelmullen       8/26/2006 3:03:44 PM

Thank you for your help.

 

"Vnezapnoye raketno-yadernoye napadenie."  That is what the Russians have believed in from the very beginning.  Acronym, "VRYAN."

The one who strikes FIRST, can WIN a nuclear war.  Their definition of "winning" is to survive, and to rebuild.  Russia does not care how many millions of their population they lose.  They, themselves, have killed millions of their own to accomplish objectives.

I read that they have a new class of missiles, single-warhead (although they can be redesigned to carry 3 warheads) that can be READY IN TWO MINUTES from a cold start.  They can evade missile defense because they can be remotely made to change course.  They carry only a 1 MT warhead.

Do you know what kind of damage a 1 megaton nuclear warhead cause?

Also, I read a military strategist saying that in order to launch a fullscale attack, Russia would need much "deception" in moving into position, because USA would be watching.  A "false crisis" would be needed.  What might this be?  Does anyone know where I can see what a Topol looks like?

The size of the ICBM?  Launch sequence?  How would I describe this in a book?  I think this site must have a LOT of KNOWLEDGE about such things.  You all seem to have studied it intensely.

How long to reach american soil?  deaths upon impact near ground zero? further away from ground zero?  Lingering effects?

Can a 1MT destroy New York City?

 

 

 

 

 
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VelocityVector       8/26/2006 3:40:01 PM
Messr. Mullen:

Consider two lazy concentric ovals superimposed over a map of the continental US with a dot near the median center point.  The dot represents where Russia “could” detonate a single massive EMP weapon to degrade transcontinental civilian e-infrastructure.  Note however there is an abundance of fiber optic infrastructure already laid.  The inner oval is a loose ring of military bases which acquired the responsibility to maintain US retailiatory forces coordination during the Cold War, and it remains so today.  The outer oval along the coastlines and through Chicago continuing past the reverse side through Dallas/Fort Worth constitutes the lifeblood of the US economy and our military core.  By striking these nodes with ~200 nuclear detonations along the proffered lines and at mid point, in reverse order, you arguably could disable the US economy and military infrastructure.  Especially if you consider tossing-in a handful of nuclear strikes on Pearl and the Alyeska pipleline.  Probability would have it though, that with 500 nuclear warheads from Russia’s “best” operational systems even Russia cannot guarantee such a plan could succeed.  Further, no power currently approaches these remote Russian capabilities.  My personal view is the epic battle between Gog and Magog you would seem to wait for with baited breath is not exactly imminent, perhaps instead of writing texts for profit to scare modestly-educated citizens you should engage in performing good works for the disadvantaged.  I do that directly, and I feel good when I actually help somebody versus merely trying to make a buck.


v^2

 

 


 
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displacedjim       8/26/2006 7:36:20 PM

The new missile you mention is the SS-27 Topol-M.  Russia has 40 of them.  They apparently have tested a maneuvering warhead for it a couple times.  That does not mean it is or is not successful, nor does it mean the 40 missiles currently deployed in silos are actually equipped with the MaRV design.  It really doesn't matter, since we can't currently shoot down more than maybe a total of a dozen RVs at very most.  They don't need a maneuvering warhead to attack us.

A 1MT RV can completely destroy several square miles of city, and devastate many more.  Between blast, fire, and direct radiation, I'd guess one 1MT direct hit in the middle of an unevacuated Manhatten would kill many hundreds of thousands, maybe more than a million, the first day.  A couple hundred thousand would die of radiation sickness within the next few weeks and months.

I think ICBMs would reach us from Russia in something like 25-30 minutes, depending on the launch point and target point, of course.  We would almost certainly see many indications of increasing tensions and nuclear preparations in the weeks, days, and hours leading up to a strike.  I don't know what could hide it, but then again, I don't know what we could do to prevent it, either--so I'm not sure why it would matter if we saw it coming.  Of course, with unambiguous warning of many hours or some days in advance, our elected representatives would certainly find some way to scurry off into some hidey-holes curtesy of FEMA and the American taxpayers.

 

 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       8/26/2006 8:00:21 PM
Where exactly in the bible does it mention Russia and not China?  Russia is at war with Islam but has to play nice with Islam because of its southern border and infiltration, but China is actively in league with radical Islam in promoting strict totalitarianism.

I'm not interested in the verse, but the context.  There are a few bilble scholars floating around this site.
 
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DarthAmerica       8/26/2006 8:35:12 PM

The new missile you mention is the SS-27 Topol-M.  Russia has 40 of them.  They apparently have tested a maneuvering warhead for it a couple times.  That does not mean it is or is not successful, nor does it mean the 40 missiles currently deployed in silos are actually equipped with the MaRV design.  It really doesn't matter, since we can't currently shoot down more than maybe a total of a dozen RVs at very most.  They don't need a maneuvering warhead to attack us.

A 1MT RV can completely destroy several square miles of city, and devastate many more.  Between blast, fire, and direct radiation, I'd guess one 1MT direct hit in the middle of an unevacuated Manhatten would kill many hundreds of thousands, maybe more than a million, the first day.  A couple hundred thousand would die of radiation sickness within the next few weeks and months.

I think ICBMs would reach us from Russia in something like 25-30 minutes, depending on the launch point and target point, of course.  We would almost certainly see many indications of increasing tensions and nuclear preparations in the weeks, days, and hours leading up to a strike.  I don't know what could hide it, but then again, I don't know what we could do to prevent it, either--so I'm not sure why it would matter if we saw it coming.  Of course, with unambiguous warning of many hours or some days in advance, our elected representatives would certainly find some way to scurry off into some hidey-holes curtesy of FEMA and the American taxpayers.


I dont know how much we could do to stop a Topol-M once its on its way. But I know we could do a whole lot to catch them on the ground. I agree with DJim that a suprise attack wouldnt really be too much of a strategic suprise considering all the mandatory preparations necessary to wage a nuclear war.

For those who dont know when I say strategic suprise, just think of the Cold War. Those of us old enough to remember expected a Russian attack at any time. The DoD and U.S. Government at the time were quite ready to deal with it as well. While the destruction would have been unprecedented their is a good chance that the DoD and critical U.S. Government infrastructure would have survived.

Now let me offer an opinion on what I think we could do to prevent it. PREEMPTIVE STRIKE. The current state of readiness for the Russians suggest a defensive deterent capability. Of course they could launch a sudden attack with what they have on hand. But to do so would not make any sense without first preparing for a war. When the U.S. retaliation arrives, Russia needs to have its affairs in order so that it could manage the aftermath with a survivable C4I and survive as a nation. Without that, there is very little chance that Russia would challenge the U.S. Nuclear Triad unless it was an act of national suicide. But consider one more thing...

While the U.S. would almost certainly be alerted to a possible Russian attack and would definately detect an actual attack if it consisted of ICBMs thus guaranteeing a response. The reverse of that IS NOT TRUE for Russia. Russian EW capabilities are a shadow of what they used to be and is Russia made itself enough of a threat, it would be many times more vulnerable to a first strike than the U.S. is. So I'd say preemption is what we could do about it.



My 2 Cents
DA


 
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displacedjim       8/26/2006 9:37:36 PM

DA, you're right about the state of our missile warning network and theirs.  We probably could blind-side them if we wanted to.  I should have said "would do about it" instead of "could do about it."

 

 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       8/26/2006 10:01:57 PM
But why would Russia launch a strike against the US on behalf of the same forces that at war with Russia itself?  Despite all of the commie rhetorice, Russia is more orthodox christian than most in the US.  Russia and the US have also been facing each other down for 50 years. 

I'd really like the author of this thread to point out the bible passage that names Russia.
 
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stbretnco       8/26/2006 10:08:13 PM
There is no passage in Ezekiel that names russia, nor is there a passage in Revelations that names Russia. What are mentioned are the terms "Gog and Magog" which have been "proven" to be various countries.
 
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DarthAmerica       8/26/2006 11:30:37 PM


DA, you're right about the state of our missile warning network and theirs.  We probably could blind-side them if we wanted to.  I should have said "would do about it" instead of "could do about it."


With this President? I wouldnt rule it out.
 
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