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Subject: If they really had ''em, they''d have used ''em
Joe Katzman    6/11/2002 9:44:41 AM
There have been (and still are) way too many tempting opportunities for Al-Qaeda to use a "fizzle" tacnuke device very effectively. If they had them, they would not still be sitting on them and accepting the massive risk profile that would ensue. Especially once Zubaydeh went down, the risk/reward quickly shifts to "use it or lose it." Soviet tacnukes may have disappeared, but apparently not to al-Qaeda. As for the ISI, they''re ruthless but not stupid. Still, the "unstable Pakistan" scenario is real and requires equally serious contingency plans.
 
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Barak    RE:If they really had ''em, they''d have used ''em   6/11/2002 3:09:11 PM
Why wouldn't they? It is better for terrorist to strike now and then, then to push things into a week or so. Terorrist organisations are based on fear. Could you imagine that on 9-11 o 10-11 for that matter Al-Qaida would have said that there are suitcase nukes in LA, Chigago etc? Everybody would have believed it, and this would have resulted in a massive, if not complete exodus of the inhabitants of the areas, so the whole economy would come to a stop. They just have to show that they are still alive and kicking. It would not suprise me if we would hear of another attack in the coming weeks, but also don't look suprised if the next attack will come in a few years. By then most people would have forgotten all about Al Qaida and OBL. Most people would be feeling safe again and then, al of the sudden they strike again, and hard. The memories of 9-11 will come back and because most people thought that Al Qaida was out of the picture, it would be a lot more difficult to deal with. This is also the case for the FBI, CIA etc. If an attack occurs in the near future they are able to say that it is impossible to reorganize their agencies so fast. If an attack comes over a year or longer, they wouldn't have that 'excuse', and the faith in the INTEL community will be shattered for al very very long time.
 
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