It's true that any fool with a current ephemeris can tell when a given body in orbit will be over the horizon. (This really isn't the whole story, because some satellites have some manuevering capacity and can change their orbit and, so, the time of their passes if there is sufficient reason to use the fuel reserve.) But, the more important point is how robust the national recon capacity is. America has a rather extensive orbital surveillance system. Other countries have a few satellites. We have more than a few. And, some of the best are not the ones which are profiled in news magazines. We have a history of capacities becoming public record long after they exist, while the new ones seem to be overlooked. And, we have a history of running scams in which things which are public record are used to cover for other things which are not yet known. In practical application, it's mostly a question of the will of Washington. In times when threats are not taken seriously, capabilities can decay and existing capabilities not be used. However, the Clinton era is over and the threat warnings have been received. We've had more than a year in which to put everything on a working basis and you can bet that we haven't wasted the time. The real problems in intelligence and recon are more matters of things which can not be seen or heard. Matter of intention, for instance. Message systems based on hand carried messages rather than electronic communications. Matters which require human intelligence, which is the one area where America has been negligent for many years, for political reasons. bsl