December22, 2006:
Fighting continued outside Baidoa, despite peace negotiators in Sudan
having agreed to stop the fighting. The problem is that there are several major
factions in the Islamic Courts, and these factions often do not communicate
with each other, or take orders from each other. Both sides are claiming to
have inflicted hundreds of casualties on the other. But this is typical Somali
bravado. There have been some casualties, and the Ethiopian troops appear to
have stood fast against the raids of the Islamic Courts gunmen. There have been
casualties, and a lot of ammunition used. There are also several thousand
Somali civilians fleeing the areas where the shooting and fighting are going
on. The factions that comprise the Transitional Government forces are
demoralized. Only the presence of Ethiopian troops keeps the Transitional
Government alive. The Transitional Government makes a big deal of the al Qaeda
members prominent in the Islamic Courts, and the prospect of al Qaeda bases in
Somalia. This has not brought forth any actions by the Western nations fighting
Islamic terrorism. Apparently, none of the Western nations has figured out what
the best approach to the situation would be (get involved with troops,
negotiate, wait to see what happens, etc).
December
21, 2006: Ethiopia has brought armored vehicles (infantry carriers and tanks)
to Baidoa, and used them in the fighting with the Islamic Courts. Both sides
are using artillery and mortars. The fighting is done in the Somali style,
which resembles raids and a lot of maneuvering, in an attempt to frighten the
other side into getting scared and running away.
December
20, 2006: Islamic Courts troops attacked tow Transitional Government training
camps outside of Baidoa, and were repulsed with the help of Ethiopian
troops. There were hundreds of casualties. Meanwhile, negotiators from
the Islamic Courts and Transitional Government met in Sudan and agreed to
resume peace talks.
December
19, 2006: The Islamic Courts deadline for the Ethiopian withdrawal from Somalia
passed without incident.
December
15, 2006: Another 200 Transitional Government gunmen have switched sides. The
government forces are largely those of clan and warlord forces that either hate
the Islamic Courts, or believe the Transitional Government will prevail. The
latter outcome is looking less likely given the growing power of the Islamic
Courts. So many players are doing what Somalis have always done, switching
sides.