May 29,2008:
The starvation deaths have begun
again in the north. As in the past, prisoners in labor camps and jails are the
first to go. Withholding food has always been used to help control the prison
population. When there's a nationwide shortage, it's easy to cut allocations
for the several hundred thousand prisoners. But some farmers in remote areas
(far from markets and government food distribution centers), and even some
factory workers, are dying as well. Current estimates see about 300,000 dying
from starvation if the food supply is not replenished. The government has been
distributing the military food stockpiles (the "war reserve") in order to try
and stop the growing corruption among government officials, the military, and
even the secret police. In view of all that, the United States agreed to
deliver 500,000 tons of food over the next year. This is being done despite
continued refusal of the North Koreans to keep their promise to dismantle their
nuclear weapons program. That's another victory for the North Korean
negotiating tactics of "demanding everything, giving nothing, risking all."
In this
case, what compelled the U.S. to capitulate and send the food anyway, were intelligence
analysis that predicted political collapse up north unless a famine was
avoided. No one wants North Korea to just implode. That would be messy,
especially with the nuclear weapons, and related technology up, for grabs. Can't
have that, not with all those Islamic terrorists out there. While the North
Koreans were openly appreciative of the U.S. offer, the need in the coming year
is for about 1.8 million tons of food. South Korea, Japan and China are
expected to make up the difference. The need may be greater, because it's been
colder than usual this Spring, to the point where there's still be frost in
some parts of North Korea. This has interrupted a critical phase of rice
farming, that is likely to greatly reduce the crop.
The
average North Korean knows little about these promises of food aid, and many
continue to attempt getting across the border to China. Can't have that either,
and North Korean border guards now have orders to "shoot on sight" anyone
trying to sneak across the border. The secret police have cracked down on the
rampant bribery of border guards, forcing many of those fleeing to try and
cross the border at night, in a remote area. People in these areas have
reported border guard snipers being posted at likely crossing areas, and work
details organized to go collect the bodies. Meanwhile, those North Koreans who
have not fled, are fighting back. Recent orders to shut down free markets,
resulted in unprecedented public demonstrations. Most of those involved were
women, as most of the traders at these markets are women. Not content to just
sit back and starve, the women came out and protested, and stared down the
police. The markets stayed open.
One of the
more common sources of discontent comes from the elderly (aged 60 and up). This
generation never knew anything but communism, and are bitter about the current
shortages. They yearn for the good old days (which Soviet subsidies kept famine
at bay), but they also shower the current North Korean leadership with
contempt. Threats from the police don't faze the outspoken old timers. All this
confuses many younger North Koreans, who know things are bad but, because of a
general information shortage, are not sure why things are the way they are. The
elderly malcontents seem sure of what the problem is; poor leadership. So far,
these leaders have held back on retaliation. Respect for the elderly is a
mainstay of Korean culture, and even with all the revolutionary rants of the communists,
persecuting the elderly would still be shameful.