March 6,2008:
Hamas refuses calls from Arab countries to make peace. At most, Hamas
will agree to a ceasefire, but on terms that will allow it to continue bringing
longer range rockets into Gaza. The Hamas leadership has visions of a massive rocket attack on Israel, like the
one Hizbollah pulled off from Lebanon in 2006. In practical terms, this makes
no sense. The 2006 war weakened Hizbollah, got thousands of UN peacekeepers
moved into southern Lebanon, which Hizbollah had controlled for two decades,
and has led to a close examination of what Hizbollah is up to. Hizbollah
suffered heavy economic losses in 2006, and now has to deal with the threat of
another civil war with the Christians and Sunni Moslems.
Hizbollah
has told Hamas that it cannot join in any attack on Israel. Any Hamas rocket offensive,
using the factory made rockets, would threaten 200,000 Israelis, less than ten
percent of the population Hizbollah attacked. The new Hamas rockets are 107mm and 122mm Russian designs (but of Egyptian
or Iranian manufacture). The B-12 is a 107mm, 42 pound, 33 inch long, unguided rocket
that is very popular with terrorists. It has a range of about six kilometers
and three pounds of explosives in its warhead. Normally it is fired, from a
launcher, in salvoes of dozens at a time. But when used individually, it is
more accurate the closer it is to the target. This 107mm design has been copied
by many nations, and is very popular with guerillas and terrorists because of
its small size and portability. The 122mm BM-21s weigh 150 pounds and are nine
feet long. These have 45 pound warheads, but not much better accuracy than the
107mm model. However, these larger rockets have a maximum range of 20
kilometers. Again, because they are unguided, they are only effective if fired
in salvos, or at large targets (like cities, or large military bases or
industrial complexes.) The BM-21s can reach farms and towns in southern Israel
containing about 200,000 people. Hamas may have several hundred BM-21s. How do
you get nine foot long, 150 pound rockets into Gaza? You hire the criminal
gangs the smuggle all sorts of stuff in. The gangs either elude, bribe or intimidate the Egyptian border
guards. Stuff gets through. Iran is supplying the cash, and many of the
weapons. But Egyptian factories produce the BM-21, and enough money in the
right pockets, and those BM-21s can find their way to Gaza.
Over 120
people have been killed in the last week of Gaza fighting. This includes three
Israelis. About half the Palestinian dead are civilians. Hamas fighters try and
stay close to civilians, as the Israelis are more cautious when fighting around
civilians, and when civilians are killed, Hamas can accuse the Israelis of war
crimes, or whatever. Hamas leaders appear to believe their own propaganda, that
they are on a mission from God, to destroy Israel, and now is the time. On a
more practical level, Hamas has backed itself into a corner. Only via radical
talk, and action, can they keep most Gazans on their side. But Gaza is miserable,
and if Hamas admits that all this woe is for nothing, the Gaza population will
turn on them. Unfortunately, this appears to make the prospect of "going out in
a blaze of glory" attractive to the Hamas leadership. This option is not very
popular with most of the people living in Gaza.
Up north
in Lebanon, 17 people have died so far this year, mainly in Hizbollah backed
terrorist attacks against Lebanese leaders who oppose an increase in Hizbollahs
control of the Lebanese government. There is a standoff now, and Hizbollah is
being cautious. Another war with Israel could be disastrous right now, because
the rest of Lebanon might turn on Hizbollah, which has lost most of the luster
it acquired for rocket attacks on Israel in 2006.
March 3,
2008: Israel pulled their troops out of
Gaza, but threatened to come back in greater force, and go looking for rocket
stockpiles, rocket workshops and those involved with the rockets. If Hamas
resisted this with force, Israel would law waste to the place. Hamas declared the Israeli withdrawal a
victory and refused to negotiate.
March 1,
2008: In response to Hamas use of longer range BM-21 rockets, Israel sent
several battalions of troops in Gaza, to find additional rockets and the teams
of men who launch them (some skill is required in setting up and aiming the
rockets). Hamas gunmen resisted, and the ensuing battle left nearly 300 people
(mostly Palestinians) dead or wounded. This was the highest one day casualty count
in Gaza since the 1967 War.