May 14,2008:
Afghan and security forces waited,
and waited, for the Taliban Spring Offensive, but it never came. Gun battles
with the Taliban were down 50 percent so far, compared to last year. Roadside
bomb attacks were about the same. But Taliban casualties were up, as more Afghan
and NATO forces went looking for them. Last year, 8,000 people died in Taliban
violence. So far this year, the death toll is 1,200, indicating casualties for
the year will be about half what they were last year. This year, a higher
proportion of the dead are Taliban and al Qaeda, and a lower proportion
civilians. While some Taliban commanders have tried to develop new tactics to
reduce casualties (smaller units of Taliban, and avoiding contact with police
and troops), nothing has worked. The Afghan army is larger (76,000 troops) and
better trained than last year, and there are more foreign troops. Worst of all,
more tribal leaders have sided with the government this year, meaning tribal
militias are also ready to fight Taliban moving through previously pro-Taliban
territory.
This year
the Taliban switched to terror bombings, and threats against civilians. The
suicide bombing campaign has not been very successful. This year's threats
involve demands that civilians limit cell phone use, stop watching TV and shut
down schools for girls. None of these demands were very popular, and nothing
much happened except in areas where the tribal leaders were too scared to stand
up to the Taliban. This depended more on tribal politics than anything else. The
Taliban movement has always been about tribal politics, with ambitious, and
often religious, tribesmen seeing the movement as a way to work themselves into
a tribal leadership position. That meant more money, as well as more power.
More
Taliban and al Qaeda are being captured, and this provides more information on
the state of the terrorist forces, and what their plans are. For example, police
recently intercepted a car, rigged as a car bomb, as it was being driven from
Pakistan to Kandahar. The driver was paid $150 to deliver the explosives filled
car to Kandahar. He, like the three other terrorists in his escort car, were
Pakistanis doing it partially out of religious conviction, and partly because
it paid well. Over half the Taliban in Afghanistan are from Pakistan.
Al Qaeda
has been more prominent in the Afghan fighting this year, and have been taking
more losses. Afghan and NATO commanders were taken by surprise when a pro-al
Qaeda website reported that one of their leaders, Abu Suleiman al Otaibi, had
been killed recently in a battle with foreign troops. Until last year, al Otaibi
had been sought in Iraq, where he was a known leader of terrorist forces. But
many al Qaeda leaders and technical experts have departed Iraq in the last year.
Some have "retired" (gone inactive, and into hiding), but most of those who have disappeared from Iraq
have been showing up in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The ones who come to Afghanistan
find themselves constantly under attack by Afghan police and foreign troops. In
Pakistan, the Taliban is trying to arrange a ceasefire with the government, and
negotiate safe havens from which Islamic terrorists can operate against the
Afghan government. The Taliban leadership is taking a beating in Afghanistan as
well, and also want a safe place to hide out.