February 14, 2024: Ukraine has a problem with shortages of 155mm shells for the towed and self-propelled howitzers it has received from NATO nations. Delays in NATO delivering adequate supplies of 155mm artillery ammunition have hampered Ukrainian abilities to defend against Russian attacks or implement plans to successfully attack Russian forces. The Russians take advantage of this by using its few remaining offensive units and larger supplies of 152mm shells to make small territorial gains and promote those as major victories. Meanwhile Ukraine switched from guns using 152mm ammunition to howitzers using 155mm shells. This transition took place throughout eastern Europe after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and the east European nations forcibly allied with Soviet Russia were free to choose their own allies and most decided to join NATO. To do so they had to meet certain standards used by all NATO members. This makes it possible for NATO country forces to cooperate with each other more easily. These standards included ammunition types and calipers. NATO members often used different weapons, but these had to be able to use NATO-standard munitions. For artillery 155mm shells was one of those standards. New East Europe members had to dispose of their 152mm weapons and munitions stockpiles and replace them with NATO standard items.

East European NATO members still had stockpiles of 152mm shells and howitzers that could fire them. After 1991, these new NATO members sought to sell or donate their Soviet era weapons and munitions. By the time it was 2022 these east European still had supplies of 152mm shells and other Soviet era weapons. These were quickly shipped to Ukraine, which was still using similar equipment and munitions. Ukraine accepted all the munitions it was offered but, like the east European nations, began switching to 155mm shells and artillery that used that caliber. As the war went on after 2022, Ukraine used up its supplies of 152mm shells, including those donated by East European NATO members, and switched to 155mm artillery.

The problem was that NATO countries quickly emptied their reserves of 155mm shells, and it took time to resume production. In peacetime there are few factories producing 155mm shells and production goes to replacing ammunition used for training artillerymen. The stockpiles of 155mm shells were quite large but once the Russians invaded, and Ukraine sought to fight back, they needed, and used, all the 152mm and 155mm shells they could get. After about a year of this 155mmshell supplies were running low, most NATO nations supplying those to Ukraine realized they lacked the ability to manufacture more and those that did have production facilities found that they could not manufacture additional shells quickly enough.

Over the last year, European manufacturers of 155mm munitions have expanded their production capabilities and are producing as many shells as possible. This demand for more shells persuaded the major European shell supplier, Nammo (Nordic Ammunition Company), to expand its own production to five times its current level and, with the help of financing from the EU, build an additional shell production factory. The new factory won’t be producing munitions until the new plant is completed and staffed. This will take several years. Nammo, which is jointly owned by Norway and Finland, has long been a major European producer of all types of munitions as well as a few portable weapons that soldiers can carry and use.

In the United States, the same thing happened, not just to supply Ukraine but to continue supplying Asian allies with ammunition. South Korea is the only east Asian American ally that also produces and exports modern, NATO standard weapons and munitions. South Korea has supplied the United States with several hundred thousand 155mm shells with the understanding that these shells would not be shipped to Ukraine. South Korea has trade relations with Russia and China that it does not want to disrupt. South Korea has, because of the Ukraine demand, replaced the United States as the supplier of munitions to several Asian countries. South Korea is closer and delivers promptly but, unlike the United States, does not provide a lot of munitions at no cost as part of American foreign aid. South Korea expects to be paid.

Meanwhile the Americans used the South Korea shells they received as their war reserve, which is likely to be used against China or North Korea. The shells the South Korea munitions replaced were sent to Ukraine. The U.S. is building a new munitions factory, but this won’t be producing anything until later in the decade. Currently the United States is producing about 30,000 155mm shells a month and plans to increase that to 60,000 by October 2024 and 100,000 by late 2025, then and even more once the new plant is in production.

Currently, Ukrainian troops fire only about a fifth as many artillery shells the Russians do. The Russian shell factories increased production of 152mm shells in advance of their 2022 invasion of Ukraine and later arranged to purchase a million North Korean shells, which came from the North Korean munitions reserve that contained several million 152mm shells. The oldest ones were sent to Russia, where they were sure to be used quickly. North Korea increased production at its shell factories by adding additional shifts. Russia is expected to order more shells. Russia also had more peacetime munitions plants than the West. This was a relic from the Soviet period and the Russians kept older munitions plants in reserve rather than demolishing or converting them to production of consumer goods. As a result, Russia had a war reserve of several million 152mm shells in late 2021 and the ability to produce 1-2 million shells a year.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, they never expected to run out of ammunition because a quick win was expected. The war was not over in a few months, and, because of that, Russia did run out of artillery munitions by the end of 2022 while Ukraine was supplied by NATO with massive amounts of 155mm artillery ammunition. Russia’s production of artillery ammunition continues to increase but for a while it was not enough to match what Ukraine received from NATO nations. Ukraine has also revived its artillery munitions production of 152mm shells. This is the caliber used by Russian-designed artillery which Ukraine still has some of. NATO’s current munitions are more effective and reliable than Russian-made projectiles. For Ukraine to push the Russians out of its territory it must attack and that requires more artillery support than required for defensive operations.

The NATO countries supplying all this ammunition have a problem because they eventually ran through most of what they had available. The United States supplied most of it and now has to rebuild its war reserves stockpiled for a major war. While European NATO nations don’t have to worry about their major threat, Russia, while they rebuild their war reserves, the Americans have to plan for potential conflicts elsewhere, like China, North Korea, and Iran. The Americans can still do so because supporting Ukraine does not degrade American naval or air power. A war with China would not become more difficult because of American military aid to Ukraine. The same is true for potential conflicts with China, North Korea, or Iran as both of them have plenty of powerful local near-peer opponents who would be American allies in such conflicts. These include South Korea, Japan, the Arab Gulf states, and Israel. These nations can deal with China, Iran or North Korea given American and naval support. American ground forces are also available for a Pacific campaign but cannot use artillery munitions as heavily as they would prefer.

The U.S. found that it takes several years to ramp up production of artillery munitions and five or more years of increased production to restore the reserves. Munitions are still being sent to Ukraine, but not in the massive quantities seen during the first eight months of the war. Ukraine has managed to repair its own production facilities after Russia damaged them early in the war and is now manufacturing a lot of the basic small arms, artillery and mortar ammunition its troops use. While NATO nations have sent Ukraine most of the available munitions as well as a lot of weapons and combat or support vehicles, this is justified by the fact that NATO exists to protect NATO members from a Russian attack. The Russians did attack, but started with Ukraine, which wanted to join NATO, before moving on to nearby NATO nations. Russia has wrecked its military power and economy with this invasion of Ukraine and won’t recover for a long time. The large scale economic sanctions the West imposed on Russia have hurt the Russian economy. One sector of the economy that is booming is production of weapons and munitions.