November 14,2008:
For the second time this month, Russia has changed its policy regarding
its new SS-26 (9M723K1, or "Iskander") ballistic missiles. First it
said it was sending some to Kaliningrad,
as a way to threaten the new NATO anti-missile system being built in Poland (to
protect Europe from Iranian missiles). Now Russia says it will halt any exports
of the Iskander missile until it has produced the hundred or so it plans to
send to Kaliningrad. Syria, Kuwait, South Korea, India, Malaysia, Singapore and
the United Arab Emirates were all interested in Iskander. The export version,
Iskander-E, would have a shorter range (280 kilometers) and fewer
countermeasures for the warhead.
Russia now
plans to send five brigades of Iskander (60 launchers, each with one missile,
plus reloads, which could amount to over a hundred missiles) to Kaliningrad.
Iskander is just entering production, and it would take several years, at
least, to produce that many. Actually, it might take five or more years to
produce enough missiles for five brigades, because Russian missile production
capabilities have sharply deteriorated since the end of the Cold War in 1991.
This is one reason why the current Russian government is making so much noise
about this imaginary NATO plot to surround and subdue Russia. Losing the Cold
War did not go down well in Russia. Rather than forget and move on, many
Russians prefer to remember, and use the imagined evil intentions of their Cold
War foes to explain away defects in the Russian character.
This Russian
deployment to Kaliningrad is all about a unique feature of Iskander, which is
that it is not a traditional ballistic missile. That is, it does not fire
straight up, leave the atmosphere, then come back down, following a ballistic
trajectory. Instead, Iskander stays in the atmosphere and follows a rather flat
trajectory. It is capable of evasive maneuvers and deploying decoys. This makes
it more difficult for anti-missile systems to take it down. Russia is buying a
special version of the Iskanders for its own military. This version has a
longer range (500 kilometers) and more countermeasures (to interception).
Russia will not provide details. Russia has admitted that it could use Iskander
to destroy the U.S. anti-missile systems in a pre-emptive attack. Just in case
Russia wanted to start World War III for some reason or another. This Iskander
deployment is mainly a publicity stunt, unless you want to seriously consider
the possibility that the Russians are trying to start a nuclear war.
Kaliningrad
is the perfect place for Russia to start World War III. The city is the former
German city of Konisgberg, which was captured at the end of World War II, and
kept by Russia, as the boundaries of Eastern Europe were rearranged in the late
1940s. Until 1991, Kaliningrad was on the Soviet Union's western border. But
when the Soviet Union dissolved that year, and more than half the Soviet Union
split away to regain their independence as 14 new nations, Kaliningrad found
itself nestled between Poland and the newly reestablished Lithuania. The small
(200 square kilometers, 400,000 Russians, the Germans were expelled 60 years
ago) city is still the headquarters of the Russian Baltic fleet and protected
by a large force of troops and warplanes. The Iskander missiles will feel right
at home.
The Iskander
finally completed its development in the last few years. The 3.8 ton missile
has a range of 280-500 kilometers, and a 900 pound warhead. Russia sells
several different types of warheads, including cluster munitions, thermobaric
(fuel-air explosive) and electro-magnetic pulse (anti-radar, and destructive to
electronics in general.) There is also a nuclear warhead, which is not
exported. Guidance is very accurate, using GPS, plus infrared homing for terminal
guidance. The warhead will land within 30 feet of the aim point. Iskanders are
carried in a 20 ton 8x8 truck, which also provides a launch platform. There is
also a reload truck that carries two missiles.
Russia
developed the solid fuel Iskander to replace its Cold War era SS-23 battlefield
ballistic missiles (which in turn had replaced SCUD). The SS-23 had to be
withdrawn from service and destroyed by 1991, because the 1987 Intermediate
Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty prohibited missiles with ranges between 500 and
5,300 kilometers. When post Cold War financial problems slowed down development
of Iskander, this left Russia dependent on the shorter range (120 kilometers)
SS-21 system, along with some aging SCUDS, for battlefield ballistic missile
support. Russia used some of these older missiles against Chechen rebels in the
1990s.