| Click here to send the text of this page to a friend. | Click here to return to the War on Terrorism index/archive. |
The Dirt in a Dirty War
Any war in Afghanistan is going to be a dirty one, no
matter what you do. The chief sources of the dirt are the drug gangs, tribal
politics, the terrorist trainees and Pakistani intelligence. Drugs are
the one really dirty aspect of the Afghan situation which has not been getting
much attention of late. The drug trade still thrives, with dozens of shoot outs
on the Tajik and Iranian borders each month as heavily armed drug smugglers get
caught trying to cross. Tons of opium are seized each year, but more gets
through. In the first half of this year, there were 363 such incidents on the
Iranian border alone, with 221 drug smugglers killed and another 1,489 arrested.
The Tajik border, guarded by two divisions of Russians, was not quite as lively.
But this was mainly because the Taliban and Northern Alliance have been fighting
near the border, discouraging smuggling there. While the Taliban has stopped a
lot of the drug production (poppy growing) in their territory, it is still
allowed in Northern Alliance territory. This is how the Northern Alliance gets
the money to keep their war effort going. In Western Afghanistan, Taliban
control has always been shaky. This is where many of the drug gangs are based.
Many of the local Taliban make money for the cause by taxing the drug
operations. The Dari (a dialect of Iranian) speaking people of this area have
quietly resisted the Taliban, but armed resistance is increasing (backed by
Iran.) If Bin Laden and his hundreds of bodyguards ever move into Western
Afghanistan (unlikely) he will have to worry about the drug gangs coming after
him, attracted by the large reward (nearly $30 million) on his
head. Tribal politics in Afghanistan has always been a major problem for
invaders. You can buy off some of the tribes, but you have to deal with the fact
many do not stay bought. When not united against a foreign invader, the tribes
fight each other. Centuries of old grudges and blood feuds keep the pot boiling.
Beyond the tribes, there are the purely ethnic differences. The largest such
group, the Pushtuns, comprise about 38 percent of the population. Think of the
Pushtuns as the Serbs of Afghanistan, for the Pushtuns are the largest and
toughest group in the region. They have always dominated local politics, much to
the annoyance of the other groups. In addition to the seven million Pushtuns in
Afghanistan, there are another ten million in Pakistan. While many of the
Pakistani Pushtuns are loyal to Pakistan, others will cross the border if they
feel their Afghan kinsmen are in big trouble. The second largest group in
Afghanistan are the Tajiks (about 25 percent of the population.) In addition to
the four million Afghan Tajiks, there are another four million across the border
in Tajikistan. Blame all these sloppy borders on 19th century British and
Russian diplomats drawing lines on maps without paying much attention to where
the tribes were. There are also over three million Hazaras in Afghanistan, who,
being a religious minority (Shia Moslems), tend to go with whoever seems to be
the strongest at the moment. The remaining groups are largely Turkish tribes,
who also ally with whoever appears to be a winner. Afghanistan is a diplomatic
nightmare, for successful diplomacy is not just negotiating with one country,
but with dozens of the major tribes. This is further complicated by divisions
within some tribes, with large families or clans developing their own
independent foreign policy. Injected into the normal turbulence of
Afghan politics are the terrorist trainees and graduates of the Bin Laden camps.
Before the current crises, there were 13-14,000 of these. The largest single
group, about 7,000 armed men, were at an Afghan army base south of Kabul. Many
were Pakistanis (and a majority of these were thought to be Pakistani soldiers.)
Around this camp were smaller ones run by trainers from all over the Arab world.
According to the Russians, there are 55 terrorist camps and bases in eastern
Afghanistan. Among the trainees there are said to be over 2,000 Chechens, even
more Uzbeks, plus smaller contingents from places like Indonesia, the
Philippines and China. Some of these guys may not be as formidable as the
Afghans on the battlefield, but they will be determined. Moreover, the thousands
of armed terrorists form the core of the Taliban armed forces, giving the
terrorists a major say in whatever the Taliban government says or
does. And then there's Pakistani intelligence (the Inter Services
Intelligence agency, or ISI), which has been a major player in the region for
decades. Founded soon after Pakistan itself, ISI soon became a political
instrument for the army (which soon began a series of government takeovers that
continues to this day.) The senior commanders of the Pakistani military have
always recognized the importance of information and the ISI has developed
networks of informers throughout the nation, and in neighboring countries. When
Russia invaded Afghanistan in 1989, the ISI increased it's network of spies in
Afghanistan. When millions of Afghan refugees fled to Pakistan, ISI put hundreds
of agents into the camps. When the Taliban formed in the early 1990s, ISI agents
noted it early on and this information enabled ISI to quickly provide weapons
and money to speed up the growth of the Taliban. ISI agents also noted the
arrival of Bin Laden and the many foreign fanatics Bin Laden attracted. ISI's
influence over the Taliban waned during the late 1990s and that of Bin Laden
increased. Bin Laden's organization openly provided money and trained
administrators to help run the government. Meanwhile, Pakistan, as a foreign
country, was regarded suspiciously by the Taliban, and for good reason. Hundreds
of ISI agents are members of the Taliban, and the Taliban don't like it. Still,
hundreds of Pakistani government advisers and civilian volunteers openly work
with the Taliban (some of them, of course, are also working for the ISI.)
Whatever is going on in Afghanistan, the ISI wants to know about it. So you will
find ISI agents among the drug gangs, the Northern Alliance and any other
faction that appears to have potential. ISI is not out there to specifically do
dirty work, but ISI agents will do whatever needed to be done to serve the
interests, not of Pakistan, but the Pakistani armed forces. Anyone
wanting to get anything done in Afghanistan has to deal with these folks, and
that will make for some interesting headlines.
|
